U.S. Markets
The S&P 500 is up this morning after the index snapped a nine-day win streak in the last session. At the time of writing, the SPX is up 0.12%, whereas the NDX is up 0.03% as investors balance AI earnings.
Technology stocks remain in focus after Broadcom’s earnings release yesterday. Its shares fell more than 13% in after hours after CEO Hock Tan forecast AI chip revenue of $56b for fiscal 2026 and more than $100b in fiscal 2027. While the figures imply robust growth, investors had anticipated even stronger guidance. The reaction shows that the expectations for AI-linked companies have become increasingly demanding, where simply meeting forecasts is no longer enough to sustain momentum.
More broadly, the recent pullback appears to be a healthy consolidation. The S&P 500 has rallied more than 1,300 points from its March lows and recently crossed the 7,600 level. However, signs of weakening market internals are beginning to emerge. Breadth remains mixed, and leadership is becoming increasingly concentrated. Despite the weakness in the major averages, most sectors are trading higher and the VIX remains relatively subdued, suggesting investors are not yet positioning for a broader risk-off move.
On the hourly charts, the index has broken out of a tight range defined by resistance at 7,550 and support at 7,535. The breakout shifts 7,550 resistance into immediate support. If the index fails to hold 7,550, it could pull the market back within the range. On the upside, 7,570 acts as a resistance, where the upside momentum may face selling pressure. Traders should watch for confirmation near these levels, as price behavior around them will likely dictate the next directional move.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar is no longer just finding support, it is moving strongly up. The DXY has cleared the descending wedge that defined the past two weeks and is now trading inside a rising channel on the 2H chart at 99.435, with momentum firmly to the upside. The catalyst remains unchanged: the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has done little to resolve the broader Gulf impasse, Iran continues to condition any Strait of Hormuz reopening on a comprehensive agreement, and Brent near $96.79 is far more likely to test $100 than retreat below $95. Oil is the lead indicator, and it is pointing higher.
The macro backdrop is reinforcing the move. CME FedWatch now prices a 50% probability of a Fed hike by year-end, driven directly by war-driven energy inflation keeping the higher-for-longer narrative alive. Markets are now squarely positioned ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report, the week’s most important catalyst. A strong print would cement the hawkish repricing and give the dollar the fundamental push to extend this breakout convincingly. Any disappointment, however, risks a sharp unwind of this week’s gains, so position sizing into the number matters.
Technically, the DXY has reclaimed 99.208 as a floor and is pressing against R1 at 99.407–99.408. A sustained close above this level opens a run toward R2 at 99.830–99.872. On the downside, 99.208 is immediate support, followed by the key structural floor at 98.940, then 98.617.
EUR/USD tells the mirror story precisely. Price is compressing inside a descending triangle on the 1H chart, with the descending trendline capping every rally since the June 1 high near 1.1690. The pair sits right on critical horizontal support at 1.1594. This level has held twice but looks increasingly fragile ahead of NFP. A close below 1.1594 opens a move toward 1.1574 and the broader bearish phase. Resistance sits at 1.1638, then 1.1675–1.1680. Oil toward $100 breaks the dollar higher. EUR/USD breaks 1.1594 lower. Tomorrow’s NFP is the trigger. Buy DXY dips toward 99.208. Sell EUR/USD rallies toward 1.1638–1.1675.
Gold & Silver
Gold is trading at $4,467 today, 0.75% higher but still under pressure from current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue their strict monetary policy stance longer. The firmer US Dollar and higher interest rate expectations pressure is weighing on the metal. While the US-Iran tensions would typically support the haven demand the US Dollar and current US economic data have limited upside momentum for the bullion.
Investors will closely be monitoring Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, adding another layer of pressure on precious metals coming from movements in oil prices, US jobless claims data, and market positioning ahead of. Geopolitics remain the forefront of market sentiment, although there are border hopes for de-escalations, tensions are still strong between Israel and Lebanon, with potential threats to Beirut.
Silver is also trading lower today at $73.08, extending its recent consolidation phase. The metal is still caught between its demand for AI infrastructure, and as a precious metal. Silver continues to be more sensitive than gold to changes in economic activity, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in industrial demand expectations.
Technically, Gold continues to trade within a weak near-term with immediate support seen near $4,430, followed by stronger downside support around $4,369, on May 28th which marks the recent swing-low area. On the upside, immediate resistance is positioned near $4,570 around May 26th high, while a sustained recovery could bring the next major resistance zone around $4,750 into focus. Silver also remains around the same area as yesterday, with immediate support placed near $71.00. On the higher side, resistance is seen near $78.00, while a decisive break above this level could open the path toward the $80.00 resistance region.
Crude Oil
Oil, which had gained 10% over the first three trading sessions of the week, stalled after Isreal and Lebanon negotiated a ceasefire contingent upon a complete halt of strikes from Iran. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran have also established a framework to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the negotiations keep hitting a wall and fights keep breaking out between the countries every now and then. The last two weeks saw oil prices declining amid hopes of a lasting peace deal. However, oil is up over 3% so far this week as risks are skewed to the upside, while tanker traffic through the Strait remains well below pre-war levels. Global supply cushions are shrinking, highlighted by a sixth consecutive weekly draw in Cushing crude inventories to near minimum operating levels. While a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire could temper near-term gains, disruptions to key shipping routes continue to pose upside risks to prices.
Meanwhile, the U.S. House voted to halt the war effort against Iran, potentially reducing the likelihood of a broader conflict that could disrupt Middle Eastern crude supplies and key shipping routes. However, the resolution is unlikely to have an immediate impact on military operations, as it still requires Senate approval. Meanwhile, key oil market forecasters have become increasingly cautious on the 2026 outlook, citing ongoing disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA now projects a global supply shortfall of roughly 1.8 million barrels per day, while the EIA expects inventories to draw by an even steeper 2.6 million barrels per day, highlighting a significantly tighter oil market.
Brent is down 1.04% for the day at $100, with 50-EMA resistance at $102.39. It has immediate support around $96.88, with the next support close to $93.19. A break above resistance could take the commodity to $106. WTI is down 1.12% at $97.37, with 50-EMA support at $95.88 on the day chart and resistance around $101.63.
