U.S. MarketsÂ
The SPX traded in a narrow range yesterday amid uncertainty over the extension of a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran and elevated oil prices. However, a positive note for markets is the SPX closing above the $7,100 level (yesterday’s resistance due to positive gamma concentration, now turning into a possible support). In today’s session, it is holding that level and trending slightly higher, heading towards the next major positive gamma zone of $7,150.
The focus for today would likely be on earnings from major defence names like Northrop Grumman and RTX Corp. Also, energy players like Halliburton Co (Oil and Gas) and EQT Corp. (Natural Gas) report earnings today. SPX’s 12-month forward EPS estimate has been on the rise, currently around 340 (higher than the pre-crisis EPS estimate of around 325). This means the market is less focused on the potential economic impact of elevated energy prices and is likely to believe that a strong earnings season from companies in the AI, tech, energy, and industrials sectors would reduce the likelihood of major corrections. It’s important to consider that if earnings start to see the impact of the crisis in Iran, this sentiment could flip to the downside. For now, the broader bias and structural trend remain bullish. Also, Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing starts today, and it would be interesting to see his views on the Fed’s policy. Looking at the 0 DTE options data, dealer gamma has shifted higher since yesterday, and the $7,150 level could act as resistance given the positive gamma concentration here. On the downside, the $7,100 level could act as support with the positive dealer gamma concentration. The $7,000 strike level still represents the highest positive gamma concentration zone outside 0 DTE flows (strong possible support).
Technically, on a 4-hour chart, SPX is trading above the 9 EMA around $7,100, which is likely to act as initial support, followed by the $7,000-$7,070 (including the 20 EMA). On the daily time frame, it is comfortably above all EMAs (EMAs sloping higher). On the flip side, initial resistance could be in the $7,150 zone, followed by $7,200.
Crude Oil
WTI and Brent were up 2.7% in yesterday’s session, as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to dominate price action. In the early Asian session today, WTI is trading around $89.1 (+0.35%) and Brent is at $95.6 (+0.4%).
The slight easing of prices after a brief rally on Monday suggests the markets may be underpricing the risk of global supply disruptions. With over 11-13 million barrels per day of crude supply impacted, the situation represents a significant physical strain on global energy flows. Despite occasional headlines suggesting renewed talks, progress is unclear as both sides continue to escalate through naval actions and strong policies. As a result, geopolitical risks remain built into oil prices, and if disruptions continue, crude prices could move materially higher.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows are nearly halted, continue to support the market. Short-term direction remains highly headline-driven, with traders closely watching developments around U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan and today’s API inventory data for additional cues.
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a cautiously bullish intraday outlook, as it trades above key averages and could find support at yesterday’s low of $88.2. Resistance is likely near $92.5, and a break above that can push prices toward $97, a previously tested level. Brent may face resistance at $97.5, with support around $92.8.
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index is slightly higher today, up around 0.1%, after declining about 0.19% in the previous session as strength in the euro weighed on the dollar. Despite this short-term pressure, the broader tone remains stable, with the dollar holding key levels and showing signs of underlying support.
The macro backdrop continues to favour the dollar. Geopolitical uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran situation remains unresolved, with negotiations still unclear and no firm timeline for an agreement. This keeps safe-haven demand intact. At the same time, energy-driven inflation risks remain elevated, which is limiting the ability of central banks to shift aggressively toward rate cuts. As a result, financial conditions remain relatively tight, supporting the dollar. From a rates perspective, the U.S. continues to offer relatively better yield support compared to other major economies. This is helping to put a floor under the dollar. The Japanese yen remains weak. Low volatility and continued carry trade demand are keeping the yen under pressure. With only gradual tightening expected from the Bank of Japan, the currency is likely to stay soft, which indirectly supports the dollar.
DXY continues to hold above a multi-year ascending trendline dating back to 2008, which has consistently served as a strong support zone during previous declines. The recent bounce from this trendline reinforces its importance, as it signals that buyers are stepping in at structurally significant levels. In terms of levels, support is seen at 97.93, followed by stronger support near 97.51, which aligns with the ascending trendline. On the upside, resistance is placed at 98.18 and then 98.34 (50-day moving average). The euro has seen some recent strength, which weighed on DXY in the previous session. However, EUR/USD is now facing resistance near recent highs. Resistance is now at 1.179 (day high) and 1.185, while support is seen at 1.173 (yesterday’s low) and 1.170 (100 SMA). Any pullback in the euro could provide support to the dollar. As long as DXY holds near this ascending trendline support, the near-term bias remains bullish, with scope for a move higher if resistance levels are cleared.
Gold and Silver
Gold has been consolidating in a range between $4,769 and $4,879 over the last six sessions, after rebounding more than 19% from its 200-day SMA, amid hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran. Negotiations are ongoing, with both parties heading to Pakistan for further talks. The ceasefire agreed upon expires this week, but if a deal is struck, it would bode well for gold, as it would ease some inflation worries. Additionally, Trump has picked Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman to succeed Jerome Powell, and a Senate confirmation hearing is due. Warsh is expected to outline his plans before the Senate Banking Committee soon. Market participants expect Warsh to echo Trump’s calls for lower interest rates, which would also benefit gold.
Gold is down 0.89% at $4,778, paring today’s initial 1.9% decline. Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly after the U.S. seized a tanker that was defying the naval blockade over the weekend, resulted in this drop. A drop below yesterday’s swing low of $4,737 could send gold lower to $4,650. Gold could face immediate resistance at $4,875, with the next resistance around $4,985.
Silver is trading 1.20% lower at $78.79 today, right at the 50-day SMA resistance at $79. It is trading within a rising wedge pattern. Silver could potentially slip lower to $77.63, characterised by the early April highs. A subsequent rebound could take it higher to $80.97 and further up to $83.05 towards the upper bound of the wedge.
