U.S. Markets
SPX edged slightly lower yesterday amid the geopolitical developments which kept oil prices and yields elevated. However, the index’s close above the $7,100 level is a positive sign, given that the 0DTE options market now shows the highest positive GEX concentration at this strike. In today’s session, the index is trading 0.3% higher, near $7,120. The bias remains moderately bullish.
The markets expect the semiconductor sector to continue its lead following Intel’s strong earnings results. The company reported sales of $13.6 billion for the March quarter. It beat first-quarter earnings expectations by 11% and delivered a strong outlook for the current quarter. The guidance was raised to a range of $13.8-$14.8 billion, higher than the $13 billion analysts had projected. Sentiment was further lifted after Tesla CEO Elon Musk indicated his company could spend roughly $3 billion with Intel, leveraging its chip fabrication capabilities. Its data-centre segment revenue was also higher than expected, and this line item is one investors should watch for in other companies like AMD and Arm, as demand for data-centre computing is increasing exponentially. This was also seen in Texas Instruments’ earnings and sector outlook. Earnings growth is broadening across the supply chain, a net positive for the AI sector and equity markets.
Technically, the index could target a move towards the $7,150 level, where there is resistance from positive GEX concentration. A break higher from here could bring the $7,200 level into target. On the flipside, support is likely at the $7,050-$7,070 level. This range also has a significant positive GEX concentration and a 9-day EMA that coincides with the $7,050 level, increasing the chances for a possible bounceback from here. The next support level is likely at $7,000.
Crude Oil
WTI crude climbed 4.7% yesterday, and Brent was up 4%, extending their rally for a fourth consecutive session, as persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to underpin prices. In the early Asian session today, both WTI and Brent have retreated by 1%, trading near $99 and $106, respectively.
Oil prices increased after President Trump told the U.S. Navy to target mine-laying boats alongside further actions, such as boarding an Iranian supertanker. Although one tanker attempted transit, most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains halted, keeping supply concerns elevated.
Despite an extended ceasefire, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled, with both sides maintaining aggressive positions, including naval blockades and vessel seizures. This ongoing deadlock suggests that supply flows through Hormuz are unlikely to normalise anytime soon. With almost 13 million barrels per day of supply now impacted, the market is reacting more to a real physical supply shock than to a geopolitical risk premium.
Oil prices are still reacting strongly to news headlines, but ongoing supply limits are keeping the upward trend in place. Even as occasional diplomatic signals emerge, these have not yet led to any real relief in supply issues.
From a technical perspective, WTI faces resistance at $100.92 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement on the daily chart). On the downside, support is seen at the 61.8% Fib level of $96.88. For Brent, resistance is seen at yesterday’s high near $107.82, with support possibly at the 20-day SMA at $102.72.
Gold and Silver
Gold is on track for its first weekly decline after four back-to-back weekly gains. So far, no further progress has been made in the talks between the U.S. and Iran, thereby keeping inflation worries in focus amid elevated oil prices. As a result, gold has fallen nearly 3% so far this week. Trump continues to threaten Iran, with his latest narrative instructing the U.S. Navy to shoot any boats that lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the U.S. is intercepting tankers carrying oil from Iranian ports, raising oil prices. This has diminished the prospect of rate cuts this year, which is currently capping gold prices after its rebound over the last four weeks.
Silver has fallen nearly 20% since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war and is down 1.54% at $74.27 today. Pressure came from the Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who pledged to act independently and called for a new framework to address persistent inflation, but offered no specifics. The Fed is now expected to hold rates steady in 2026 rather than deliver the two cuts previously expected, exerting near-term pressure on precious metals.
Gold is down 0.33% at $4,677.89, trading below both the 9-day and 21-day SMAs. It could potentially fall to 4,604, roughly aligning with 25th March’s high. The 5-period RSI on the day chart is at 32, and not yet into oversold territory. On the flip side, the precious metal could encounter resistance at $4,702. Silver is down 0.97% at $74.72, with immediate support around $71.96. It faces 21-SMA resistance at $75.23 and 9-SMA resistance at $77.99 on the day chart.
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index remains supported, with the broader macro environment continuing to favour the greenback. The key driver remains elevated geopolitical uncertainty and persistent energy risks. Oil prices are holding firm near the $100–$105 range, reflecting ongoing disruptions and limited progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East. Markets are increasingly treating the situation as a prolonged shock rather than a temporary event, which is supporting safe-haven demand for the dollar.
From a macro perspective, the focus is shifting toward central bank messaging, with major policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, ECB, and BOJ ahead. While no rate changes are expected, the tone is likely to remain cautious, with growing discussion around stagflation risks. Central banks are expected to highlight the need for more time to assess inflation pressures from higher energy prices while balancing slowing growth. This wait-and-see approach is keeping financial conditions tight and supporting the dollar through higher-for-longer rate expectations. Inflation dynamics are also becoming more complex. China, which has historically exported deflation, is now beginning to pass on higher costs, as exporters raise prices due to increased energy-linked input costs. This adds another layer to global inflation risks and reduces the likelihood of a quick policy pivot from central banks. Bond markets are already reflecting this shift, with yield curves showing signs of flattening as investors position for slower growth alongside persistent inflation. This backdrop is keeping the dollar relatively well supported. The combination of safe-haven demand, resilient U.S. economic positioning, and delayed rate-cut expectations continues to provide a strong base. While short-term moves remain headline-driven, especially around geopolitical developments, the broader setup still favours the dollar, particularly against currencies exposed to slower growth and higher energy sensitivity.
The DXY has confirmed a strong breakout after clearing the key 98.73 resistance level and is now trading near 98.84. This level had earlier acted as support in March and April before turning into resistance, making the breakout technically significant. The move followed a clean pullback toward the 98.50 zone, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages aligned with a rising trendline, creating a strong base. Buyers stepped in at this level, driving the next leg higher and reinforcing the bullish structure. The broader trend now looks constructive. On the weekly chart, the dollar is forming a bullish harami pattern, which points to a potential reversal and supports further upside. This is backed by a bounce from the long-term ascending trendline from 2008, highlighting strong structural support. As long as the index holds above the 98.70–98.50 zone, momentum is likely to remain positive. The next resistance is seen near the 21-day SMA at 99.23. EUR/USD has turned weaker after forming a tweezer top on the daily chart earlier this week, indicating a short-term reversal. The pair has since been drifting lower, with immediate support near the 200-day SMA at 1.167, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.165. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near 1.170, with a stronger barrier at 1.173 (9-day SMA). Until these levels are reclaimed, the near-term bias remains to the downside.
