U.S. Markets
SPX Index is down slightly by 0.25% today and is currently trading at $7,590
From a fundamental stance, US markets edged lower as investors assessed the broader market fallout from Jensen Huang’s ouster at Nvidia Corp. ahead of its results next week. Beyond Nvidia’s results, two other events that are likely to provide a broader test of appetite for the AI trade in the near term are Anthropic PBC’s highly anticipated IPO, CoreWeave Inc.’s plan to raise at least $4 billion through an investment-grade loan offering and producer-price data that may offer fresh clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rates. The PPI release today is assumed to matter more after hotter-than-expected consumer price data boosted the case for tighter monetary policy. Anthropic’s IPO has drawn about six times the orders for the shares available. It is seeking to raise $64.4 billion via the IPO at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion. Its revenue as of 31 October 2026 was $81 billion. The SPX Index Risk Reversal Index is currently at 2,186.31, close to its highs at 2,200. According to market participants, a confirmed risk-reversal breakout typically validates that institutional flow is aggressively chasing upside exposure rather than just hedging tail risk, reducing near-term put/call panic ratios; as the index is currently emitting signs of price acceptance, a breakout is expected.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX Index has recovered the 9-day EMA, supporting a bullish stance in the near term. Furthermore, the 4-hour chart also shows a strong bullish trend. Looking ahead in the day, the index is retesting the breakout at $ 7,575- 7,582.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices reversed trend on Thursday and closed higher, with WTI rising 2.59% and Brent rising 3.70%. Friday’s Asian session is seeing further strength, with WTI up 0.19% and Brent trading 0.62% higher.
Oil prices went up after US President Trump said the US didn’t need to close a deal with Iran. That was a bit of a shock to the oil markets as the prospect of a peace deal had previously sent prices down to their lowest level in two months. Prices were pressured as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure increased, with the Houthis (Iran’s allies in Yemen) claiming they had attacked a pumping station on the key Saudi East-West pipeline, an oil facility at the port city of Yanbu in the Red Sea and an Aramco building in Riyadh. Iran’s military said four oil tankers were blown up in the Strait of Hormuz after they’d ignored the warnings, though that has not been independently verified. The markets appear to have ignored the US commercial crude oil inventories report from the EIA, which came in at 4.65m barrels (vs the 0.60m barrel drawdown that was expected). With inventories coming back up from the Middle East, the near-term outlook remains tilted towards the downside, with risks of further escalation in the region still present.
Technically, WTI bounced off the 200-day EMA around $86.96, which acted as a crucial support level this week. Prices have broken above a downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart connecting the highs of 6th November, 9th November and 11th November, suggesting upside potential. However, prices would first need to decisively close above yesterday’s highs around $89.56 to confirm a short-term uptrend.
U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar index rose about 0.32% on Thursday to close around 103.17, its highest level since April 2025, and it is holding near that level this morning at around 103.13, at time of writing. The index is set for a weekly gain of about 0.83%, its biggest since September.
New York Fed President Williams said more rate increases are likely, describing inflation as persistent and saying the Fed will need to act over time to bring it back to 2%. His emphasis on acting over time suggests no urgency for a half-point move, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack has argued for a more modest, steady pace. Markets still expect a quarter-point hike in December, followed by another in January. Initial jobless claims came in at 200,000 against 195,000 expected, a small miss that did little to cool the dollar. Oil also supported the move, with Brent up 3.3% and WTI near $89 after Trump’s remarks on Iran and attacks on Saudi energy sites. The dollar rose against all seven majors, and USD/JPY is near the key 160 level, where traders are on alert for intervention.
Today’s focus is October PPI at 17:30 GST. Headline is expected at +0.4% on the month, after 1.3% in September, and core at +0.3%, after 0.7%. A hotter print would reinforce the debate over a larger December hike and could push the dollar toward its next resistance. A softer reading could trigger profit taking after the dollar’s best week in two months. Any yen intervention near 160 would also be a risk to the dollar index, given the yen’s weighting in the basket.
The DXY is trading above its 9-, 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs. At the time of writing, the DXY is down 0.04%. On the downside, support lies at 102.94, and the DXY may retest this level. If it stays above this support, the DXY remains bullish. A break below this support may push the DXY towards 102.70. On the upside, resistance lies at 103.24, yesterday’s high. A break above this level may push the DXY towards 103.765 (resistance), based on the 0.618 Fibonacci trend extension drawn from the low of 18 August, the high of 14 October and the low of 4 November.
Gold & Silver
Gold trades near $3,900, up 0.55% as dip buyers step in after the metal tumbled to a 13-month low to $3,852, but the bounce looks corrective after a slump of more than 6% over three sessions, with the metal still headed for a weekly loss and sellers waiting for the next catalyst.
Stubborn energy-driven inflation and hawkish Fed rhetoric remain the dominant headwinds. Trump’s comments that the US does not need a deal with Iran lifted oil and Treasury yields, fanning inflation fears, while Fed officials Williams, Goolsbee, Daly and Hammack all stressed that inflation remains far too high and further tightening lies ahead. Markets now price quarter-point hikes at each of the next three meetings, with a chance of a half-point move in December. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, though the longer term is still supported by central banks.
Gold confirmed the failed breakout and tried to slice back above its descending trendline and the key $3,934–3,988 demand zone, followed by $4,062. Support lies at $3,800, and a break below would expose the psychological $3,727 level.
Silver is trading just below $50, down 0.25% on the day. On the chart, resistance is located at $50.91 and $53.10. A breakdown below $48.83 would likely test $48.00. The current downtrend remains intact.
