US Markets
US equity indices closed last week in gains, despite volatility. SPX rose 0.90% as breadth widened, and NDX was little changed. In today’s session, indices jumped higher as oil prices retreated amid hopes of a US-Iran deal. The SPX is up 0.8% above $7,500. The outlook for today is bullish.
July was a turbulent period for stocks, during which AI concerns, the war in Iran, and the Federal Reserve whipsawed markets. The S&P 500 edged lower by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq slipped 6%. However, it appears that recovery is underway as earnings season progresses, with hyperscaler earnings and capex figures pointing to the long-term bullish outlook for the AI theme. Last week, strong earnings results from Microsoft and Amazon boosted their share prices and supported gains in the index. On the other hand, Meta saw its shares dip after the Facebook parent projected negative free cash flow in the second half of the year. Overall, the positive signal from these earnings was that capex figures were revised higher and the AI buildout continues. This will continue to benefit shares of chip makers, memory suppliers, and other picks-and-shovels plays that recently dipped on profit-booking. For companies that can demonstrate returns on investment, these levels could present attractive entry opportunities. This week is also heavy with earnings, with Palantir reporting today and AMD, Arista Networks and Eli Lily reporting later in the week. On the economic front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI release is scheduled for today. Services PMI and NFP are due later this week.
Technically, the SPX is trading around $7,530. Today’s gap-up move pushed the index back above its 50-day SMA near $7,480, an encouraging sign that buyers are regaining control after the recent consolidation. On the 1-hour chart, SPX is forming an ascending triangle, with resistance around $7,560 and then $7,600. A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for further gains. Initial support lies between $7,480 and $7,500, making this an attractive zone for long entries on any pullback. Stronger support sits around $7,440-$7,460. The 5-day RSI is near 65, indicating bullish momentum.
Gold and Silver
Gold climbed 0.6% to around $4,068/oz at the start of the week, with Silver posting even stronger gains of 1.40% to $58.17/oz. Improved risk appetite following renewed diplomacy between the United States and Iran was a driver of Gold, as President Trump announced that a new round of negotiations would commence this week.
Easing fears of an immediate military confrontation led to a plunge in oil prices and a short-term reduction in inflationary fears. However, Gold has struggled to extend its gains and remains under pressure amid a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment. The Fed left policy rates unchanged last week, but several officials dissented in favour of a rate hike, signalling that inflation remains a concern. Despite that, Gold has held up well amid continued global economic and political uncertainty.
On the chart, Gold appears to be in a consolidation phase, trading near $4,025-$4,125. Gold is trading near $4,068/oz, consolidating in the $4,025-4,121 range after several false breaks of resistance. The RSI is at 51, reflecting a neutral, indecisive tone as investors await the next directional move. A break above the immediate resistance $4,125 could target $4,150-4,175, while a move below the current support $4,025 may expose a $3,970-4,000 support range.
Silver is trading around $58.17/oz, below the key $60.00 psychological level. Momentum is flattening after the recent run, indicating consolidation rather than a trend reversal. A break above $59.80 could reopen the path toward $61.00, while a drop below $57.35 may trigger a move toward $56.00 support.
Crude Oil
On Monday, Brent fell 1.3% and WT fell around 5% after Trump said new talks with Iran would begin on Monday after he called off a planned attack. He also suggested a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is worth noting that comments from the Iranian Foreign Minister on Sunday stated that discussions with Iran and Oman on Hormuz have nothing to do with whether the Strait will be open or closed. At the same time, the ongoing naval blockade by the US still remains an issue between the US and Iran. Further, even when the MOU was agreed between the two sides in June, no tangible progress was made on Iran’s nuclear programme and remains an outstanding issue.
This shows that the oil markets can’t yet put the Iran-US conflict in the rear-view mirror, with risks still skewed to the upside. Most importantly, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still remains well below June ceasefire levels, let alone those seen in 2025. Crossings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are also still under pressure.
Options markets continue to point to greater concern over higher prices than lower ones. Brent risk reversals have remained elevated despite the pullback in crude, showing investors are still paying a premium for upside protection. That suggests the market continues to view a supply-driven price spike as a more likely risk than a sharp decline in Brent.
Technically, WTI is trading at $78, below the 9 and 21 EMA on the daily chart. However, it is taking support at the 200 EMA on the daily time frame. On the 4 hour chart, immediate support is at the 61.8 fib level of $76.7, when drawn from the 2nd July low to the 23rd July high. A break below this level can push prices to the 72.4 level. Resistance is seen at $81 which is the downward trendline joining the highs of 23rd and 31st July. A break above this trendline can push prices to the $84 level.
Brent is trading at $87, below the 9 and 21 EMA and taking support at the 200 EMA on the daily time frame. On the 4-hour chart immediate support is at the 13th July breakout of $83 and resistance is at 50 EMA of $90.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined 1.64% last week and is currently trading near 99.75, remaining under pressure as sentiment continues to favor a weaker U.S. dollar. Reports that the Trump administration supports coordinated efforts with Japan and South Korea to strengthen their currencies have strengthened expectations of further dollar weakness. Although the DXY is still up 1.53% in 2026, recent price action indicates that bullish momentum is fading. Adding to the bearish outlook, Japan confirmed a joint yen-buying intervention with the U.S., supporting the yen and weighing further on the dollar. Historically, coordinated foreign exchange interventions have had a meaningful impact on currency markets, reinforcing the current bearish sentiment. For intraday traders, the overall bias remains bearish as long as the DXY continues to trade below key resistance levels.
Today’s key macro events include the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Manufacturing Prices. Stronger-than-expected data could provide short-term support to the dollar.
For intraday traders, the bias remains bearish as long as the DXY trades below the 100.215 resistance level. A sustained move below this level keeps downside momentum intact, while the next key resistance is seen at 100.53. On the downside, 99.41 (today’s low) serves as the immediate support, followed by 99.16, a key horizontal support level. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1524. Immediate support is located at 1.1455 (last session’s low), while the immediate resistance is seen near 1.1577, a horizontal resistance level.
