Gold and silver have been trading in tight, range-bound zones with muted volatility despite positive year-to-date gains (+26% for gold, +30% for silver). Support remains solid from steady ETF inflows, central bank purchases, and persistent investment demand, including gold-backed ETFs at multi-year highs and ongoing but modest bullion flows. However, major catalysts are missing: a clear trigger is needed to push prices higher, as recent dollar strength and stable Treasury yields have capped rallies. The metals are sensitive to macro signals, particularly Fed policy and the dollar, with Jackson Hole and Powell’s remarks anticipated to set the tone for September and beyond. Geopolitical risks also loom as potential wildcards that could reintroduce safety demand.
Looking ahead, traders are watching for signals that could spark a breakout: a clearer dovish pivot from the Fed at Jackson Hole or in subsequent commentary, weaker U.S. data (especially jobs or JOLTS), or geopolitical shocks. For silver specifically, stronger Chinese policy support or higher solar installations could tighten the supply-demand balance further, given its industrial linkages. Market positioning shows relatively subdued speculative certainty, suggesting that a decisive macro or policy shift would be required to alter the current dynamic.
For more information, please find attached the commodities report by Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank
