COT report: Silver and copper stands out in week of continued energy weakness – Saxo Bank MENA
Commodities:
Despite a 1.3% rebound in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, hedge funds continued their third consecutive week of net selling, still reacting to the late-February correction that saw the index drop 4.6% before recovering. The total net long across 27 major futures contracts has declined by 44% during this time after hitting a 2-1/2-year high, led by selling across energy and grains.
Energy: The sector’s selloff extended to a seventh week, with the net long position down 62% to 224K contracts during this time—half the three-year average. Economic concerns pressured fuel markets, increasing gas oil shorts while NY-traded RBOB gasoline and ULSD diesel positions were cut to near neutral. Gasoline saw fresh short selling (-15.2K), and ULSD experienced long liquidation (-8.7K). Consequently, leaving the RBOB contract mostly exposed to short covering and it partly explains why RBOB is up 3.1% since last Tuesday, while ULSD is unchanged.
Metals: Gold remained steady before surging to $3,000 per ounce at week’s end, with minimal hedge fund activity seen during the reporting week. Silver (+2.4%) and copper (+4.6%) gains contributed to increased net longs in both.
Grains: Corn’s 4.2% rally coincided with net selling as hedge funds cut bullish bets, fearing China’s counter tariffs would hurt exports. The soybean short position shrank, while wheat remained under pressure despite rotation between Chicago and Kansas contracts.
Softs: Sugar’s volatility challenged hedge funds, with a 20% rally through February followed by a sharp correction and rebound. Overall, these sharp and sudden price swings saw the net long position fall 47% in a week when sugar gained 3%.
Forex:
In the forex market, a 2.2% slump in the Dollar Index supported a continued reduction in speculative long dollar positions. Overall, an eighth consecutive week of net USD selling reduced the gross long versus eight IMM futures to a five-month low at USD 5 billion, down from a January USD 35 billion peak just before a number of Trump policy announcements triggered a major and ongoing reversal.
Besides continued demand for GBP, which in the past six weeks has seen the net flip from a short to a 29k long, the main driver once again was strong demand for euros, which saw the net flip back to a net long for the first time since October. In the past four weeks alone, speculators bought 77.5k contracts or EUR 9.7 billion. The JPY long, meanwhile, held steady at a record high at 134k contracts or USD 11.4 billion equivalent, while the MXN long reached a three-month high.
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