Crude’s month-long slide halted by fresh Mideast worries – Saxo Bank MENA
The energy sector is heading for its biggest monthly loss since May 2023, with headlines this past month being dominated by the poor outlook for Chinese demand as economic weakness persists in the world’s top importer of crude oil. In addition, the recent loss of risk appetite across key stock market sectors has also led to some long liquidation from momentum-focused hedge funds. Today, however, Brent crude trades back above USD 80 in response to renewed worries about stability in the Middle East after Hamas said Israel had killed its political leader, who was on a visit to Iran. Together with rumblings between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the market is once again forced to focus on the unlikely risk of the month-long conflict spilling over to other parts of the Middle East.
Overall, however, both WTI and Brent crude remain stuck, having traded sideways for the past two years within some well-established and still wide ranges, which in the case of Brent is currently between USD 75 and USD 95 (blue lines) and within that range a narrowing one between USD 78 and USD 87 (red lines). It has been argued throughout the latest stage of the recent correction that the move had more to do with long liquidation from hedge funds and technical selling from others than an actual deterioration in the fundamental outlook, and we tend to agree with this observation, potentially setting the stage for a rebound in the coming weeks.
From a relatively weak start to the year amid concerns about Chinese demand and the negative impact of high funding costs following the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign by the US Federal Reserve in decades, the crude oil market has since moved higher, with most of the major movements being driven by the ebb and flow of a geopolitical risk premium, and with that, the buying and selling from hedge funds looking for momentum. Something they have struggled to find during the past year, and which is reflected through data which recently showed the net long in Brent and WTI briefly falling below 200,000 contracts or 200 million barrels, to a level only seen twice during the past decade. The subsequent bounce has, in part, been supported by traders re-establishing long positions while closing loss-making short positions.
In the week to July 23, speculators made a first sizeable cut in their Brent and WTI crude net long positions as prices tumbled towards a six-week low. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 62 million barrels to 386 million. Heavy net selling is also seen across the product futures, led by a halving of gas oil, the feedstock for diesel, heating oil and jet fuel.
Last Updated on 5 months by News Desk 2
