DXY extends its slide Wednesday, down ~0.2% near 99.40, as Treasury yields ease from Tuesday’s selloff highs.
Drivers:
- 10-year yield near 4.70%, 30-year back to ~5.27% off its near 20-year peak.
- Markets price 67% odds of unchanged Fed rates in September; eyes on today’s FOMC minutes (2 p.m. ET).
- Softer labour/inflation data keep narrowing the dollar’s yield edge.
- Safe-haven demand muted despite Hormuz tensions and firmer oil.
- EUR/USD up 0.11% near 1.1611, at a fresh two-month high on Fed-ECB policy divergence.
Technicals:
- DXY bias stays bearish, testing support at 99.36–99.42 after rejecting the descending trendline from early-August highs.
- Broke below 200-day EMA (~99.636) yesterday, capping bounces.
- Break below 99.36–99.42 opens door to 99.011.
- Close above 99.60–99.65 needed to flip bias; rallies remain sell zones into the Fed minutes.
- EUR/USD holds a bullish trendline from early-August lows, clearing 1.1600 and testing 1.1613.
- Close above 1.1613 targets 1.1650–1.1700; support at trendline (~1.1580) and 200-EMA (~1.1557); below 1.1550 invalidates bullish setup.
Gold & Silver
Gold and silver are attempting to recover after Tuesday’s sharp sell-off, as Treasury yields eased from multi-year highs and the dollar remained near multi-month lows. Gold is trading around $4,361, after falling nearly 2% in the previous session, while silver is around $63.27 after its recent decline. Softer US economic data has reduced expectations of further Fed tightening, with markets now focused on the July FOMC minutes and upcoming Jackson Hole remarks for further policy signals. Lower yields and a weaker dollar would remain supportive for precious metals, although elevated oil prices and fiscal concerns could keep volatility high.
Technically, gold remains constructive after holding the $4,323 support level on the 4-hour chart. The metal is now attempting to regain momentum above $4,360, with $4,435 representing the next major resistance. A break above this level could reinforce the bullish structure and open the way towards the $4,450–$4,500 zone. On the downside, $4,323 remains the key support, followed by $4,227. As long as gold holds above $4,323, the recent pullback can be viewed as a correction within the broader uptrend.
Silver is also showing signs of stabilization around $63.27, with $62.65 acting as an important support level. Holding this zone would preserve the recent bullish structure and could allow a recovery towards $64.30, followed by the key resistance at $66.40. A break above $66.40 would strengthen the upside case and potentially target $67.00. Overall, both metals retain a bullish medium-term bias, with easing yields, dollar weakness and expectations of less restrictive Fed policy providing the fundamental backdrop, while the $4,323 support in gold and $62.65 in silver remain crucial levels to hold.
U.S. equity futures are trading near the flatline in early trade today, following three consecutive sessions of declines as the global bond selloff and elevated oil prices continue to weigh on risk sentiment. The S&P 500 is marginally lower at 7,698 (-0.01%), while the Nasdaq is slightly higher at 29,447.8 (+0.06%) at the time of writing.
The recent weakness in equities has increasingly been driven by the sharp rise in long-end yields and growing concerns around the financing requirements of the AI boom. While Treasury yields have paused from their recent highs, the relief has so far been insufficient to revive risk appetite. Higher benchmark yields are also creating a more attractive alternative for investors, particularly as a growing wave of AI-related debt issuance and private fundraising competes with equities for capital.
Attention will now turn to the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes later today, particularly following the unusual level of division at the Fed’s July meeting, where three officials dissented in favour of a rate hike. Investors will look for greater clarity on how policymakers are balancing softer economic data against persistent inflation risks from elevated energy prices. Earnings will also remain in focus, with Target, TJX, Lowe’s and Analog Devices scheduled to report today.
Technically, on the hourly chart, SPX is showing a bullish RSI divergence, suggesting selling momentum is beginning to fade. The signal is reinforced by the formation of a tweezer bottom, indicating buyers have stepped in to defend recent lows. If the rebound gathers pace, 7,728 is the next resistance level to watch. On the downside, support remains at 7,637, with a break below exposing the 7,600 psychological level. The Nasdaq 100 is also displaying a bullish RSI divergence on the hourly timeframe, pointing to easing bearish pressure following the recent pullback. The recovery is being confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle, a positive reversal signal that suggests buyers are regaining control. Initial resistance remains at 29,588, a level that has repeatedly capped gains, while support is seen around 29,170.
