- US Markets
The S&P 500 fell 0.99% in yesterday’s session and is currently trading around $6,641, down another 0.55%. The Nasdaq also declined 0.99% yesterday and is now trading near $24,637, lower by 0.77%, as fear and caution continue to weigh on markets. A bright spot in the market was Alphabet, which rose 3.1% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.3 billion stake in the company. Market sentiments are now heading into Nvidia’s results, which will knock the lights out and justify the massive spending of companies pouring into the AI space. The report will be closely watched amid anxiety over stretched AI valuations, even as many expect the chipmaker to beat forecasts once again. Markets are also factoring in the probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, currently at 46.6% per the CME FedWatch tool, below the 50% mark, raising concerns that if the Fed holds rates steady, tighter financial conditions could weigh on equity valuations and dampen market sentiment. Looking ahead, traders will be watching today’s Industrial Production (YoY), September data for further clues on the strength of the economy.
On the technical side, the S&P 500 is trading below its 50-day moving average. Immediate resistance is at the 9 Day SMA at $6,756, followed by $6,876 (last week’s high). Immediate support is near $6,595 level; a break below it will lead the index further lower to $6,504 level (horizontal base support)
- Crude Oil
WTI closed 0.23% lower on Monday and is trading 0.4% lower today as oversupply fears outweighed broader geopolitical risks.
OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers are expected to increase output, leading traders to anticipate a sizable supply surplus in the months ahead. This outlook continues to weigh on oil prices.
Market participants are also watching the Trump Administration’s stance on Venezuela, after Donald Trump stated on Monday that he is not ruling out sending troops to the oil-rich nation. In addition, crude exports from Sudan have been disrupted following attacks on key energy infrastructure, affecting a major transit route for South Sudan’s oil. These geopolitical events—along with last week’s strike on a Russian port, Iran’s seizure of an oil tanker, and potential U.S. sanctions on Russia—may provide some limited support to prices. However, any upward impact is expected to be modest.
From a technical perspective, WTI is trading below the 9 SMA on the daily chart, with RSI near 46, indicating a bearish bias. On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at the key breakout level of $59. A break below this level can push prices to the previous resistance turned support level of $58.4. Resistance is seen at the 200 SMA level of $59.8, followed by the key level of $60.2. A break above this level can establish a bullish move for WTI. Brent has immediate support at the $63.3 level and resistance at the 50 SMA level of $65.
- Dollar Index (DXY)
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) currently stands at 99.475, slightly down by 0.05% and reflecting uncertainty amid sustained ambiguity about the Fed’s future moves. Market expectations for the upcoming rate cut stood at 48% this time around, after falling significantly last week from 66%, amid recent fed declarations. Risk aversion trends have further accelerated the Swiss franc and the Yen. The near-term trends remain slightly bullish to neutral ahead of Thursday’s U.S. employment release, which will remain a major factor governing the dollar’s performance.
On the chart, the EUR/USD currently appears to be consolidating with lower highs and a buildup of sellers at the resistance barrier. Additionally, the support level near 1.1580 seems to have been confirmed. Meanwhile, the resistance barrier could still lie at 1.1655.
- Gold and Silver
In yesterday’s session, gold declined by almost 1% amidst declining expectations of another interest rate cut in the December meeting. It continues its decline in today’s session by 0.8%, reflecting the sentiment from the previous session. According to the CME Fedwatch, the probability of a rate cut has declined to below 50% compared to 67% a week ago. The change in expectations subdued the prospects for the precious metal, which earns no interest and usually gains from lower rates and a weaker dollar. However, before predicting any significant move, investors will closely watch the jobs report scheduled for release on Thursday. The data will help throw light on the state of the economy after the six-week shutdown. The long-term trend remains intact with the metal gaining 50% this year despite the pullback. The metal continues to be supported by central bank purchases. According to Goldman Sachs, central banks bought an estimated 64 tons in September, more than triple the amount in August. Additionally, China alone added approximately 15 tons, higher than the 1.24 tons reported by the nation. The trend is likely to continue in November as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and fiscal risks. Goldman Sachs estimates that average monthly purchases of 80 tons are likely to occur in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Technically, gold is trading at $4,010, and the daily RSI is trending below 50, indicating a loss of momentum. It has likely entered a consolidation phase, which was seen a few weeks ago in the range of $3,931 to $4,026. If the metal holds above the upper end of its range at $4,026 and breaks above $4,070, it will indicate further bullishness in the metal. However, a breakdown below the near-term support level of $3,970, followed by the 50-day SMA at $3,954, will signal further downside for the metal.
Silver is currently trading at $49.5 and has declined 1.4% in today’s session and is approaching the 20-day SMA level of $49.11. The underlying bullish trend for silver also remains intact, with a break above the $54.40 levels leading to further upside. A break below the 50-day SMA at $47.73, followed by a test of the range-based support at $47.73, will signal further downside for the metal.
