- US Markets
The Senate’s procedural vote to resolve the record-breaking government shutdown has injected strong bullish energy into equity markets, reigniting risk appetite among investors. S&P 500 jumped 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 surged 1%, signalling broad optimism that political uncertainty and its economic drag are fading quickly.
Historically, shutdown resolutions have unleashed relief rallies, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 often surging 1–3% immediately following such breakthroughs. Additionally, November’s robust seasonality further amplifies the upside, over the last decade, both indices have averaged strong 4%+ gains in November. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks could benefit most from renewed liquidity.
The SPX chart reflects a notable shift in short-term sentiment, as a sharp rebound from recent lows signals a potential bullish reversal. Buyers asserted control after the index held above the $6,670 support level, forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart, that underscores strong demand near the lows. The consecutive green candles highlight aggressive dip buying, propelling price toward the $6,780 which acted as resistance level. Market structure now pivots around key levels, a decisive break above the next resistance near $6,827 could open the path for a retest of prior highs. While failure to clear this barrier may invite a pullback toward $6,714–$6,675.
- Gold and Silver
Gold inched up 0.59% on Friday and extended its gains by another 1.82% during early European trading hours. Signs of a weakening U.S. economy drove the move reflected in last week’s data.
Due to the government shutdown , there was a blackout in official data releases. Investors turned to private reports for direction. The private data reflected softening in labour market conditions in October and weaker consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s index came in at 50.3 versus expectations of 53.2, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The Senate’s initial approval to reopen the government paves the way for key economic data releases to resume once the House passes the bill. The data is crucial for assessing the nation’s economic health. While the reopening could weigh on gold, the possibility of a December rate cut can continue to support prices. Moreover, gold drew support from the People’s Bank of China, which bought gold for the 12th straight month, and from modest ETF inflows seen on Thursday and Friday. Lastly, a weakening dollar supported gold prices.
On the technical side, gold is trading above its 9-day SMA, showing positive momentum. After staying range-bound between $3,925 and $4,046, it broke above the upper level, signaling further upside potential. It’s now testing the 21-day SMA at $4,074, and a break above could open the way toward $4,124. The RSI has edged up from 51 to 54, while support sits near $3,925.
Silver gained 2.65% and is hovering around $49.63. It too benefited from weaker private data, though a full government reopening might limit further gains in the short term. Silver is above its 9-day SMA and testing the 21-day SMA at $49.57. Having broken through resistance at $49.46, it could face its next resistance near $50.15 if momentum holds.
- Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil is gaining some momentum today, up $0.46, or 0.76%, to $60.43, following a 1.91% slip last week. The optimism about the likelihood of the U.S. government shutdown ending is offsetting concerns regarding rising global supplies by raising demand for oil from the world’s largest consumer. The end to the historic U.S. government shutdown, which is now entering its 40th day, appears to be close. The Senate began on Sunday, moving toward a potential vote on reopening the federal government. The re-opening was an immediate boost, getting critical programs restarted that would enhance consumer confidence, activity, and spending, all of which would provide a constructive backdrop for oil prices. Indian refiners have also turned to the Middle East and the Americas to replace sanctioned Russian supply. Russian oil producer Lukoil is facing mounting disruptions as a U.S. deadline for companies to cut off business with the Russian oil company looms on November 21, and after a hoped-for sale of the operations to Swiss trader Gunvor collapsed, signaling rising uncertainty around Russian supply, a potential catalyst for tighter global markets.
WTI Crude oil has broken the descending trendline resistance on the 2-hour chart. It is currently trading near its 9 Day SMA at $60.46. Immediate resistance lies near the $61.31 level, followed by $61.70 (both falling on horizontal line resistance). Immediate support lies near the 20 Day SMA at $59.89, followed by $59.04 (horizontal line support). Brent is currently trading $64.04, up 0.80%. Immediate support lies at the 20 Day SMA at $63.33, and resistance lies near $65.11 level.
- U.S Dollar Index
The dollar weakened in Friday’s session after a report from Challenger showed US job cuts in October surged 175% year over year, the highest since October, strengthening the case for rate cuts. It was further pressured as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, weighed down by the prolonged shutdown affecting households. In today’s session, the dollar has held steady as the Senate has voted to reopen the government, after which confirmation of the House and the President will be awaited. According to Morgan Stanley strategists, once the government reopens, the dollar is expected to move lower amid official economic data releases signaling structural weakness in the labor market.
Technically, the dollar is trading at 99.62 in today’s session and is below the 9-day SMA at 99.72. The index also formed a bearish marubozu candlestick on Thursday after failing to break through strong resistance at 100.18. The index is also trading in an ascending parallel channel connecting the lows at 96.56 and 98.03, and the highs at 98.61 and 100.36, respectively. This suggests the underlying bullish trend remains intact; however, a break below the 21-day SMA at 99.20, followed by a break of channel support at 99.05, will signal bearishness. Conversely, the index has to break above 100.18 to confirm any further bullish momentum.
