- US Markets
The Nasdaq declined for a third straight week last week and is now negative for the year, as risk factors stack up.
Iran began live-fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying fears about a potential disruption in energy supply. While Artificial intelligence-related disruption continues to hang over high-duration tech stocks. And finally, Fed path is back in question as January inflation printed a tick below expectations with CPI YoY 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, throwing fuel to the fire of the debate around rate cut magnitude and timing.
In terms of the chart setup, the SPX is trading near $6,805, holding the bottom of its three-month trading range after putting in lower highs from the $7,000 rejection level. On the daily chart, shorter-term simple moving averages are still above current prices, and oscillator indicators such as RSI14 at 42 and MACD in negative territory both support near-term bearish momentum, while the 200-day MA still lies far below at $6,540. Immediate support is located at $6,757, while resistance can be seen near $6,862. While a close above $6,925 is needed to relieve some selling pressure and increase the probability for another test of $7,000.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold and silver are down 1.62% and 2.69% today and are currently trading at $4,910 and $ 74.50.
From a fundamental stance, long-duration yields fell into the weekend after a strong 30-year auction and a cooler CPI print. Looking ahead, markets are awaiting key data to gauge the economy’s strength. Wednesday brings the FOMC minutes, which should give more clarity on the Fed’s stance. It must be noted that the US jobs data for 2025 was revised down by 1,029,000, the largest annual revision in over 20 years. This suggests the labour market was weaker than previously thought, strengthening the case for rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in three cuts this year, which could weigh on the dollar.
However, money managers reduced net-long exposure to 93,038 contracts in the week through Feb. 10, the least bullish stance in 16 weeks, according to CFTC data. Long-only positions fell to their lowest level in more than 23 months, also indicating reduced bullish exposure.
Looking at volatility, gold seems to be experiencing spillover effects from silver in the near term. Looking ahead, however, according to Bloomberg, silver may have passed its most brutal phase of selling as indicated by the 1-week implied volatility. The 1-week implied volatility is at 66.68, while the lower end of the Bollinger band is at 57.40, supporting the rationale for some bounce in the short term. Looking at gold’s IV, it is currently at 25.92, significantly eased from the high of 45.84 on 29th January.
From a technical stance, on the 4-hour chart, gold has support at $4,890. The metal has already bounced sharply off this level. In line with the volatility print from Bloomberg, a bullish stance is expected for gold today. Looking at silver, there is support again at $72. Any dip to this level presents a strong buying opportunity.
- Crude OilÂ
WTI crude is trading slightly lower in early Tuesday trade, currently at $63.4, after ending 1.8% higher yesterday. Trading volumes have been lighter, which has kept price action somewhat uneven, but the overall tone in oil markets remains cautiously bullish. Demand–supply fundamentals remain slightly bearish, but crude prices continue to find support from lingering geopolitical risk premium, with sustained tensions likely needed to keep prices firm.
The current focus remains on the ongoing US-Iran talks in Geneva. If there are any diplomatic progress, this could lead to some reduction in the geopolitical premium, although the tensions remain elevated currently. Iran’s recent naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route carrying nearly a fifth of global supply, continue to keep markets alert to potential disruptions. Political rhetoric from both sides has also remained firm, adding to uncertainty and keeping a potential risk premium embedded in prices. At the same time, expectations that OPEC+ may gradually increase output from April are already broadly priced in, crude prices appear more sensitive to geopolitical developments and sentiment shifts rather than pure supply-demand changes. This dynamic supports the view that downside may remain limited while upside risks gradually build.
Technically, crude continues to consolidate after recent gains, with an ascending trendline connecting January lows providing downside support at the $62.5 level, followed by 200-day SMA support at $62.1 levels. Yesterday’s high of $63.8 will act as initial resistance for oil prices, with a break above it opening the door towards $65. Overall, the market structure remains constructive, and while short-term volatility may persist, the bias continues to lean mildly bullish.
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
The DXY rose 0.22% yesterday and is holding around 97. Trading was quiet as US markets were closed for Presidents’ Day and China remains shut until 23 Feb for Lunar New Year.
On the fundamental side, markets are waiting for key data to gauge the strength of the economy. Wednesday brings the FOMC minutes, which should give more clarity on the Fed’s stance. On Friday, we get Core PCE (Dec) and 4Q GDP.
Importantly, US jobs data for 2025 was revised down by 1,029,000 — the largest annual revision in over 20 years. This suggests the labour market was weaker than previously thought and increases the case for rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in three cuts this year, which could weigh on the dollar. Mixed economic signals are keeping investors cautious, leading to muted moves in the DXY.
Technically, on the 4-hour chart, the dollar broke above a symmetrical triangle pattern, connecting the highs of the 11th and 13th and the lows of the 11th, 13th, and 16th. This supports short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the next resistance lies at $97.26, which coincides with the 21-day SMA. On the downside, the next support lies at $96.87, based on the four-hour chart.
