- Crude Oil
Crude oil slipped 0.84% last week, reflecting ongoing softness and suggesting that bearish momentum could persist. The Alaska summit underscored softer supply risks, as Washington avoided imposing tariffs on Chinese oil imports despite ongoing Russian purchases, signaling a reluctance on the part of the Trump administration to trigger moves that could push global crude prices higher. Broader fundamentals also lean bearish, with the International Energy Agency cautioning that OPEC+ output increases may drive a record surplus as supply continues to outpace demand. Meanwhile, the futures curve is flattening into 2026, reflecting expectations of softer conditions. U.S. crude opened the week under mild pressure, trading at $62.94, with traders awaiting the Zelenskiy–Trump meeting later today.
WTI is trading below the 9 SMA on the daily chart, as traders remain cautious. On the 4-hour chart, Crude Oil is trading in a clear bearish structure, with prices consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. Immediate support is located around $62.53, and a breakdown below this zone could lead to further weakness toward $62.23. Resistance is seen at $63.66 zone, which has been tested multiple times in the previous few sessions. A break above this level can push prices to $64.224.
Brent is trading at $66.12. Resistance is seen at the 9 SMA level of $66.71, followed by $67.44, and support is located at $65.43 on the daily chart.
- US Dollar Index
The dollar index came under pressure this year as Trump’s tariff policies eroded its safe-haven appeal. It rebounded sharply from a low of 95.99 on July 1 to a peak of 100 on August 1 on strong economic data and new trade deals, including with Japan. Since then, it has slipped to 97.78, down 2.25% from the high, driven by a 93% probability of a Fed rate cut in September (CME FedWatch), amid weaker payrolls and softer retail sales. Trump’s summit with Putin yielded no new sanctions on Russia, while his meeting with Zelenskiy today could affect dollar sentiment. Friday’s Jackson Hole Symposium is another key event, with Powell’s remarks likely to shape expectations.
The index is consolidating around 97.78 ahead of the Zelenskiy meeting. Its 30-day correlation with Treasury yields has risen steadily since April, after tariff uncertainty briefly broke the link, showing that rate expectations—not risk sentiment—are the main driver. The index has immediate support at 97.45 (mid-August lows), next support at 96.26, and resistance at 98.46.
- Gold
Gold prices edged higher on Monday after briefly hitting a two-week low, supported by retreating U.S. Treasury yields. U.S. yields have pulled back on Monday, after climbing to a two-week high, easing pressure on the non-yielding metal. Expectations of Fed rate cuts also continue to underpin the outlook for bullion.
Geopolitical developments remain the key driver for gold at the start of a busy week. The weekend summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska concluded without securing a Ukraine peace deal, leaving markets focused on Trump’s meeting later today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, where a rapid breakthrough is being pursued. The uncertainty surrounding these discussions continues to reinforce gold’s role as a traditional store of value.
Technically, gold has recovered from its two-week trough and is now trading close to the 21-day simple moving average around $3,355. A decisive move above this level would reaffirm a positive outlook, with scope to test the next resistance near $3,375. On the downside, immediate support rests at the intraday low of $3,324, followed by the 100-day SMA at $3,298. The relative strength index is currently neutral at 50, suggesting that follow-through buying is required to confirm further upside momentum.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 404.75
22 Carat – AED 374.75
21 Carat – AED 359.25
18 Carat – AED 308.00
