Gold Eyes Best Week Since February as Middle East Tensions Keep Oil Volatile – Century Financial

In corporate news, Airbnb jumped more than 8% in extended trading after reporting stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings, while Cloudflare soared 16% on an upbeat full-year and current-quarter outlook. The tech and AI trade saw some profit-booking. The pullback came as a rebound in oil prices reignited concerns that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Overall, according to Dow Jones Market Data, 432 companies in the S&P 500 had reported earnings this quarter as of Thursday morning, and 364 beat analysts’ earnings-per-share expectations. S&P 500 earnings this quarter have climbed 32% year over year after excluding unrealised capital gains. Vistra, a utilities major, reports earnings today.

Technically, the SPX is consolidating between $7,700 and $7,730 following its recent breakout, while the broader trend remains bullish. Resistance is likely around $7,750, followed by the key $7,800 level. A sustained break above $7,800 would signal the next leg higher. On the downside, initial support lies around $7,660 (5-period SMA on the 4-hour chart), making this an attractive zone for long entries on any pullback. Stronger support sits between $7,600 and $7,620, near Tuesday’s breakout zone. The 14-day RSI is around 60, indicating bullish momentum with room for further upside.

Gold & Silver
Gold continued to climb on Friday, consolidating around $4,300/oz, and looks set for its best weekly return since February. The run higher has been aided by falling oil prices and a calming of global political tensions, which have helped to ease fears of inflation and the need for a prolonged period of monetary tightening.

The spotlight is now on the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, as it may influence near-term interest rate expectations and bring volatility to the precious metals market. Nevertheless, from a structural perspective, the path of least resistance for gold appears to remain intact, as it has held above the important round number of $4,000/oz, forming a key medium-term support level. The decline in crude oil prices has contributed to a more favourable environment. Since rising energy costs drive broad inflation, the reduced inflation pressures have decreased the probability of a drawn-out period of tight monetary conditions, and this dynamic has improved risk appetite for gold even despite it providing no yield.

Silver continues to outperform gold in the current gold bull run, having climbed by 3.50% to around $63.6/oz, driven by its higher beta.

Gold (XAUUSD) maintains the bullish outlook on the 4H chart after a decisive breakout above its long-term descending channel, with price consolidating constructively below the 4,300 resistance and holding key support at 4,235-4,250. A sustained 4H close above 4,300 would reinforce continuation toward 4,320 and potentially 4,350, while the breakout thesis remains intact as long as higher lows continue to form above support.

Silver is consolidating beneath 64 resistance after a sharp breakout from its late-July base. A clean break above it could extend gains toward 64.70, whereas a move below 62.8 would invalidate the immediate bullish continuation scenario.

Crude Oil
Escalating tensions in the Middle East and a lack of clarity on a deal to revive the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent and WTI up yesterday. Higher energy costs stoked concerns the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates.

The details of the proposed Iran-Oman shipping arrangement look far less acceptable to the US than the headline agreement initially suggested, keeping a floor under oil prices, especially as strikes are reportedly still occurring in the strait. These geopolitical tensions resurfaced at a time when some Fed officials are pushing to boost interest rates to tamp down price pressures.

Further, physical flows are recovering slowly, but the market is a long way from normality. Several million barrels a day have continued moving through military-assisted convoys, transponder-disabled voyages and shuttle operations. The UAE has been the standout, moving more oil through Hormuz than any other Gulf producer and restoring seaborne exports to pre-war levels in June and July. Those barrels have been crucial for Asian refiners that can’t easily replace medium-sour Middle Eastern crude. Workarounds elsewhere have become more fragile. Houthi attacks threaten the Red Sea routes Saudi Arabia has used to bypass Hormuz. Aramco has kept exports near 5 million barrels a day, about 70% of normal, but longer voyages raise the effective price paid by refiners even as the kingdom cuts prices.

The broader supply and demand backdrop explains why crude has avoided a sustained move into triple digits. Weaker demand offset about 800 million barrels of the 1.9 billion barrels of Middle Eastern supply lost from March through July. Faster production growth from the US, Brazil, Canada and Venezuela offset another 100 million. This supply elasticity has been a major cap on the geopolitical premium, although it was supported by significant global inventory drawdowns that are nearing limits.

Technically, WTI is trading at $76, below the 9 and 21 EMA on the daily chart. Prices have also broken the 200 EMA on the daily time frame.  On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at the $74 level, which has been the 13th July breakout, followed by the 78.6% fib level of $72.4, when drawn from the 2nd July low to the 23rd July high. A break below this level can push prices to the $70 level. Resistance is seen at $80, which is the 200 EMA. A break above this level can push prices to $84.