- US MarketsÂ
Yesterday’s session brought a sizeable risk-on rally, as indices rose following the Senate’s passage of legislation to end government shutdown. The S&P 500 was up +1.54%, while the Nasdaq surged higher by 2%.
While the early trading today shows some modest weakness in the indices, this reflects profit-taking activity, rather than renewed risk deterioration. Attention is now focused on the House vote, which should take place tomorrow. While execution in the House is still a variable, the near-term trajectory has now decisively turned positive, with federal employees set to get back pay and government data releases to restart.
Adding to market dynamics is the looming Nvidia earnings report on November 19, which has become a critical inflection point for US indices given its unprecedented weighting in mega-cap technology exposure. Nvidia now commands 8.6% of the S&P 500-the highest individual stock weighting in index history-making company-specific results carry systemic market significance. Any significant disappointment could be the trigger toward sharp repricing across the broader tech sector that has driven much of the indices’ 2025 gains.
Until then, the SPX is still supported by resilient corporate earnings and sustained AI enthusiasm.
On the 4- hour chart, the index printed two red candles after topping around $6,843 yesterday. Currently the support is located near $6,800 a break below could indicate further down pressure to $6,772 , while resistance is found between $6,850 and $6,899. The short-term prognosis is slightly negative unless the index rises to 6,850 with significant volume.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold surged by 2.87% on Monday, hitting a three-week high at $4,130, as optimism grew that U.S. lawmakers were close to resolving the government shutdown. The Senate approved a deal to end the impasse, with a House vote expected soon.
On the fundamental side, the outlook for gold remains constructive. The reopening of the government would allow the Fed to regain access to key economic data, which could shape its December policy decision. Current CME FedWatch data shows a 63.9% probability of a 25-bps rate cut, a move that typically acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding metal. However, any delay in data releases or ambiguity around the timing of rate cuts could heighten short-term volatility in gold prices. Adding to the dovish tone, Miran (Trump’s Fed representative) has advocated a deeper 50-bps cut, which could further lift gold sentiment.
Technically, gold trades above its 9-day and 21-day SMAs, confirming near-term strength. On the 4-hour chart, immediate resistance sits at $4,141,a level tested in October. A breakout could pave the way toward $4,171 on the 4-hour chart. RSI has risen to 58 from 54. We potentially see an upward trend in gold and since it is not in the overbought territory we believe gold has room to run.
Silver advanced for the third straight session, climbing 4.48% on Monday, supported by softer Fed expectations and lingering U.S. economic uncertainty. On the 4-hour chart, resistance stands near $52.08.
- Â Crude OilÂ
WTI Crude Oil remains in a consolidation phase, forming a Doji Candlestick Pattern in yesterday’s session and closing 0.32% higher, signaling ongoing market indecision. Prices in today’s Asian session are trading near $59.99, down by  0.30% but still holding above the descending trendline support. A sustained move above $60.50 would signal a bullish trend for Crude. Oil prices have traded sideways so far this week as traders await significant industry reports amid ongoing concerns about a global supply surplus. On a positive side, the approval of a deal by the U.S. Senate that is expected to restore federal funding and end the longest government shutdown provides some lift to broader risk sentiment and could support demand down the line. However, concerns on downside risks are that global supply could exceed demand as OPEC and its allies gradually increase production and non OPEC producers continue to add more barrels. Traders are also wary of OPEC’s monthly market outlook and the IEA’s annual report due on Wednesday which would shape sentiment. With both supporting and bearish catalysts at play, WTI Crude Oil will likely continue to trade in a range as the market tries to identify a clearer path of direction.
WTI Crude is currently trading below its 9 Day SMA at $60.36, which now acts as an immediate resistance, followed by $61.31, which falls on an ascending trendline. Immediate support is near the $59.46 level, which falls on the descending trendline, followed by the $59 price level as the next support. Brent is currently trading near $63.68, down by 0.24%. Immediate support is near $63.22 level, and resistance is at $64.16 level.
- U.S Dollar Index
In yesterday’s session, the dollar held steady after hopes of the US government reopening rose following the Senate’s vote in favour of ending the shutdown. The reopening will allow the release of economic reports, indicating a weaker labor market and prompting the Fed to cut rates. However, the losses were limited after St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he expected the US economy to bounce back next quarter and there may be limited room for rate cuts. The doji candlestick printed yesterday reflects this investor’s indecision in predicting the next move. The dollar is also strongly supported by carry trades, i.e., borrowing in the low-yielding currencies like the Japanese Yen or Swiss Franc and investing in the dollar. The low volatility in the dollar due to the government shutdown has been positive for carry trades as investors don’t have to hedge their exposure. A growing appeal of carry trades also comes amid investors’ worries that the AI-fueled rally may be a bubble waiting to burst.
Technically, the dollar is marginally up today, trading at 99.72 and well above the 21-day moving average of 99.22. The daily 5-period RSI is also holding above the 50 level. The underlying bullish trend remains intact as represented by the ascending parallel channel connecting the lows at 96.56 and 98.03, and the highs at 98.61 and 100.36, respectively. A break above the 100.18 resistance level will confirm further bullishness in the index. Conversely, support is seen at the 21-day moving average, followed by channel support at 99.05. A breakdown below these levels may indicate bearishness and a trend reversal.
