Gold
Following a 0.84% increase yesterday, gold reached a record high of $3,508.90 in early trading today, as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising concerns over the central bank’s independence fueled the multi-year rally in precious metals. ETFs added 104,284 ounces of gold to their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year’s net purchases to 10 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive day of growth. The rally also reflects a softer dollar and strong demand from central banks as investors rotate out of U.S. Treasuries. Further, the investors will be closely watching the NFP data due this Friday and the court ruling on whether Trump has legitimate grounds to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank. A weaker NFP print and the removal of the Fed governor will likely send the precious metal higher.
Technically, gold has broken out of a three-month consolidation range, reaching an intraday peak of $ 3,508.9 and surpassing the $ 3,500 mark last seen in April. It remains above the 9 and 21-day SMA levels of $3,410.50 and $3,378.82, indicating short-term bullish momentum. On the 4-hour timeframe, a close above $3500, which is a key resistance, would confirm further gains and potentially push prices toward $3550. If not, support is likely around $ 3,470, then $3,450.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 421.50
22 Carat – AED 390.25
21 Carat – AED 374.25
18 Carat – AED 320.75
- Crude Oil
Brent and WTI crude oil prices posted solid gains—up 0.80% to $68.51 and $64.88, respectively—driven by intensifying supply-side risks and renewed optimism in global demand. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and looming European sanctions are tightening crude flows, while India’s resistance to U.S. pressure adds further uncertainty, amplifying bullish sentiment. China’s robust manufacturing performance in August has eased immediate demand concerns, reinforcing the market’s upward momentum. With OPEC+ expected to hold production steady in October, the group’s strategic restraint signals a supportive stance for prices. Analysts suggest that if demand softens, OPEC+ may pivot to cuts next year, potentially tightening the market further. The combination of geopolitical tension, resilient demand signals, and cautious supply management is creating a favorable environment for continued price appreciation.
Brent crude oil is signaling a bullish breakout on the 4-hour chart, with prices moving above the descending triangle’s resistance near $68.5. Intense buying pressure and momentum indicators support this move. Additionally, RSI is rising above 65, and MACD shows a bullish crossover with expanding histogram bars. If price holds above $68.50, further gains toward the $69.50–$70.73 resistance zone are likely; meanwhile, support can be seen near $67.01. WTI crude oil is exhibiting short-term bullish momentum, breaking above consolidation and approaching resistance near $65. The price action is supported by strong buying interest, a rising RSI above 60, and a bullish MACD crossover, suggesting potential for further upside toward the $ 65.70 and $66.40 zones if momentum holds. Support can be seen near $63.44.
- US Dollar Index
DXY is up about 0.21% today and is currently at 97.81.
From a fundamental stance, US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency in the fall. Deregulation and environmental rollbacks would be part of the action plan. Other mechanisms might include federal funding mobilization or public-private partnerships. Such a policy is an expansionary fiscal policy, and these policies are known to increase the strength of the dollar in the short term. However, doubts about the same are raised by concerns over the loss of the Fed’s independence. Pressures from Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook continue to place pressure on the dollar.
From a technical standpoint, on the 4-hour chart, DXY had a failed breakdown at the 97.56-97.63 price level. However, as of the time of writing, the index also faces immediate pressure at 97.88; a break above this resistance level would entail a bullish stance for the day, with targets reaching 98. If the index can clear the 97.88 level, it is worth noting that it would likely form a triple bottom formation and could target 98.6.
Now, looking at EURUSD, from a technical standpoint, the currency pair has reversed after hitting resistance at the 1.173-1.174 price mark, supporting a bearish stance on the day, with targets reaching 1.165. Note that the 1.165 level also marks a breakout-retest zone, hence a slight bounce at this level is expected. From a fundamental, France is stuck in economic limbo, without a budget and, possibly, without a government. The Prime Minister, François Bayrou, has called for parliament to hold a confidence vote on 8 September, and now that parties of the left and far right have pledged to bring down the government, on paper, he doesn’t have the numbers to win.
Moving on to USDJPY, it has increased about 0.7% today. From a technical standpoint, it has broken the trendline resistance connecting the highs of 150.92 on August 1st, 148.77 on August and 148.18 on August 27th, supporting a bullish stance today. From a fundamental stance, a significant setback has emerged in the Japan–US trade negotiations as Japan’s top trade representative abruptly canceled his planned visit to Washington. Reports suggest deep frustration in Tokyo over Washington’s failure to honor promises made under the trade deal. Japan was expected to invest $50 billion in the US economy, but the terms demanded by Washington are being called exploitative. Not only would Japan still face 15% tariffs, but a significant share of profits from these investments would also flow directly to the US.
- US Markets
The US equity markets remained closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day. After the long weekend, Tuesday’s Asian session saw some weakness in both indices, with the S&P 500 trading 0.44% lower and the Nasdaq 100 trading 0.55% lower.
September appears to be the weakest month for US equities historically, with an average monthly return of -4.17% and -1.96% in the past 5 and 10 years, respectively. Investors would now be focused on whether markets will rise for a fifth consecutive month after August’s 1.91% rise, bringing total YTD returns for the S&P 500 to 9.44%. Market sentiment seemed weak after a federal appeals court ruling late Friday that deemed most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs unlawful. This could lead to a trigger of potential renegotiations of tariff policies worldwide, adding uncertainty to global trade. President Trump blasted the decision as “highly partisan” and vowed to appeal to the US Supreme Court. At the same time, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence linger, with Trump pushing to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
On a technical front, today’s move in the SPX Index has caused it to fall below the 9-SMA on the daily chart, suggesting short-term bearishness. A close upward sloping trendline support can be seen near the $6430 level by connecting the lows of 23rd June, 1st August, and 22nd August. This level also coincides with the 21-day SMA, providing further support in the short term.
