- US Markets Â
The SPX dropped 1.17% yesterday, marking its biggest decline since October 10. Since reaching its recent high on October 29, the index has fallen 2.18%. The selloff was mainly triggered by Palantir. Despite posting strong earnings, investors grew wary about its frothy valuations, Â as the stock trades around 217x forward P/E. Meanwhile, sentiment toward semiconductor stocks has also weakened globally.
Fundamentally, the selloff can be explained by several factors. Palantir’s expensive valuation raised doubts about whether prices truly reflect fundamentals, sending the stock down 8%. Market breadth has narrowed to 1.1, the lowest since 2003. This shows that gains are being carried by fewer stocks. The longest in history enters its 36th day. Wall Street had warned that if the shutdown stretched beyond a month, equities would start to feel the pressure, and that pressure is now visible. Mixed signals from the Fed have added to uncertainty, as the lack of new data makes it harder to assess the economy’s direction. Even AMD ($AMD), which beat its EPS and revenue estimates by 3% and 6%, fell 3% in the broader selloff.
From a technical perspective, the SPX is now trading below its 9-day SMA, hovering at $6,771. On the 4-hour chart, it broke below a key trendline connecting the lows of October 14, October 22, and November 3. A hammer candle formed on November 3, but the index failed to hold the support at $6,831. Investors are watching the 50-day SMA around $6,652, Â a drop below this level could deepen the bearish momentum. On the upside, resistance stands near $6,880, where the SPX failed to rebound earlier this week.
- Crude OilÂ
WTI crude oil slipped modestly, as it fell by 1%, closing at 60.63 in yesterday’s session, following data from the American Petroleum Institute, which showed an unexpected 6.5 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks. In the early Asian session today, WTI has remained flat, trading 0.05% up, around 60.67.
Commodity investor enthusiasm was negatively impacted by a rising U.S. dollar and a general risk-off mood in international markets. On the demand side, weak industrial activity in Asia and soft refinery runs continue to be a headwind to consumption expectations.
Although traders continue to doubt that supply discipline alone will counteract waning demand momentum, OPEC+’s intention to slightly increase output in December before halting hikes in early 2026 highlights efforts to stabilize markets. To validate the inventory spike, all eyes will be on today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. A rise in official data can underscore the weak sentiment and drive oil prices lower.
From a technical standpoint, the 9-SMA level of 61.03 acts as resistance for WTI, with key support at 60. Brent is trading in a range between support at the 20-day SMA of 63.4 and resistance at the 50-day SMA of 65.4.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold has been consolidating in a range between $3,886 and $4,028 for the past few sessions, awaiting further catalysts to determine its next course. The precious metal has come under pressure amid the U.S. Dollar’s longest winning streak since July. This is primarily because the Fed was less sure than investors hoped that it would follow up with another quarter-point reduction in December. Market participants see a near two-thirds chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, down from two weeks earlier. Additionally, China recently ended a tax break for specific retailers, which could potentially weigh on gold demand. As a result, gold remains range-bound but is up 0.85% at $3,965 after global stocks erased gains on Wednesday amid concerns about lofty AI valuations.
Despite the recent pullback, gold is still up nearly 50% YTD. After the stellar bull run this year, corrective dips of this nature are not only bound to happen, but also healthy. The fundamental factors driving the rally, such as central bank purchases and healthy private investor demand, remain intact and could take gold higher in the long term. But in the short term, we can expect gold to consolidate between $3,800 and $4,050.
Gold, which is currently trading at $3,965, has immediate support at $3,916, which arrested the declines in late October. A break below this level could result in a test of the 50-SMA support at $3,853. On the upside, gold has resistance at $4,030. It would have to recapture the trendline support above $4,085 for the uptrend to continue.
Silver is up 1.04% at $47.66, with 50-SMA support at $45.96 on the day chart, roughly aligning with the late October lows. A rebound from this level could take silver up to the first immediate resistance at $47.84 and the next resistance at $49.53.
- US Dollar Index
The dollar’s advance extended gains from last week, following the Fed’s policy meeting where interest rates were lowered as expected. However, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that another cut in December was not guaranteed. Since then, differing comments from Fed officials have highlighted uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially in the absence of fresh data due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. This has further lifted the dollar, surpassing 100 for the first time since early August.
The U.S. dollar also strengthened against the euro on Tuesday, with the EUR/USD pair falling 0.32%.
From a technical perspective, the dollar index is trading above the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart, maintaining its bullish stance. RSI on the daily chart is also near 70, indicating strong buying. On the 4-hour chart, a break above the 100.2 level can fuel further bullish momentum and take the dollar to the 100.8 level. Above this, the next resistance can be seen at 101.2. Immediate support is at 50 SMA level of 99.3, followed by 200 SMA level of 98.6.
