U.S Markets
The S&P 500 trades near $7,679 and the Nasdaq 100 near $30,326, both holding steady after finding support and stabilising following the recent pullback. Rising Treasury yields, $100+ oil and a firmer dollar remain the key macro overhang, but AI-linked megacaps continue to absorb much of that stress, keeping the index resilient near record levels. Nvidia’s record $150 billion buyback expansion, taking its total authorization to $235 billion, reinforces the structural bid under the AI trade and helps offset supply pressure from looming hyperscaler issuance and AI IPOs. Cash-rich, cash-flow generative tech remains the preferred pocket of strength versus more leveraged, rate-sensitive names. A US-Iran de-escalation on Hormuz remains the key swing factor, progress there would pull oil and rate volatility lower, giving equities more room to rerate higher. Very low index volatility and cheap hedges suggest positioning remains light, leaving room for a squeeze higher if sentiment stabilises further.
On the technical side, the S&P 500’s hourly RSI has bounced back up from near the 20–30 oversold zone seen earlier this week and is now recovering toward 44, signalling fading downside momentum. Price is holding above strong support at $7,659, with a firmer floor at $7,588. The index is now testing the descending trendline near $7,685 drawn from last Friday’s high, and a break above this trendline would make room for price to move to the next resistance at $7,756, confirming a bullish shift and opening the way toward fresh highs. The Nasdaq 100’s hourly RSI is similarly recovering off its own oversold dip and is now near 48, supporting a bullish bias, with price holding above strong support at $30,145. Resistance sits at the descending trendline from Friday’s high, followed by $30,813, and a break above the trendline would open the way toward $30,600, then a retest of $30,813. The bias turns bullish while support at $7,659 on the S&P and $30,145 on the Nasdaq holds, with a trendline breakout the key confirmation to watch for continuation higher.
US Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.14% on Monday, while the EUR/USD pair closed 0.17% weaker. The Asian session on Tuesday is seeing further strength in the US Dollar, with the DXY trading 0.17% higher near 101.35, close to its recent high of 101.40, and the EUR/USD trading 0.19% lower.
The dollar once again found support from rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield breaking above recent highs to touch levels last seen in June 2007, near 5.24%. Meanwhile, 2-year yields are on the verge of touching 5%, while 3-year and longer yields have all crossed 5%. Rising yields indicate markets are pricing in higher inflation, driven by elevated energy prices as geopolitical tensions simmer. This is keeping market participants expecting further monetary policy tightening, with at least two 25-bps rate hikes by December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, odds of 2 interest rate hikes by December have risen to 60.1%, up from 51% one day ago and 42.3% a week ago. This is capping downside for the US dollar.
Technically, the dollar index is close to breaking above its recent high of 101.40, set on 24th September. On the 4-hour chart, a bull-flag pattern is visible, with prices holding above key moving averages like the 21-EMA, suggesting underlying short-term demand. The RSI on the same timeframe appears to have entered overbought territory again, suggesting caution or consolidation before an immediate move higher. Meanwhile, EUR/USD seems to be falling after retesting a breakdown of an upward-sloping trendline formed by connecting the lows of 24th June and 28th July, suggesting weaker short-term market structure.
Gold and Silver
After having slumped to a seven-week low, gold is gradually inching higher today amid signs of stabilisation in the selloff in U.S. Treasuries. That said, the precious metal has fallen 6%-7% this month after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023 and struck a hawkish tone. At present, the yellow metal is up 0.73% at $4,143. If treasury yields remain elevated, gold could break below the upward sloping trendline support at which it is current trading, to test the psychologically significant $4,000 level. However, it this support holds, it could potentially rebound to between $4,310 and $4,320 – a zone characterised by the confluence of the 50- and 200- EMAs on the day chart. This argument is supported by the 5-period RSI, currently in oversold territory at 24.84 , which could favour a rebound. That said, inflation remains a key concern in investors’ minds, and the upcoming PCE and NFP data this week will set the tone for gold’s immediate trajectory in addition to geopolitical headlines.
Silver is up 0.34% at $60.84, after falling over 5.6% in yesterday’s session. Silver is attempting to find support around $60.31, but the broader trend remains bearish, with prices still below the descending trendline. The RSI has moved into oversold territory, suggesting some scope for a near-term minor rebound. Initial resistance sits at $61.45, followed by $62.18. A sustained move above $62.18 would improve the short-term outlook, with further resistance at $65.50, where the 50- and 100-day EMAs converge. Until then, downside pressure remains, with a break below $60.31 potentially opening the way toward $59.52 and $58.77.
Crude Oil
Oil prices remain muted on Tuesday as investors assessed uncertainty around U.S.-Iran ceasefire efforts against recovering Middle Eastern crude flows and the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. Both benchmarks had pared gains Monday after Saudi Arabia resumed loading vessels at the Red Sea port of Yanbu via its East-West pipeline, a key export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is down 0.17% at $96.2, while Brent is down 0.13% at $102.5.
Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with Washington and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before US midterm elections in November. Iran’s officials have consistently said they are willing to pursue diplomacy but do not trust the administration of US President Donald Trump to abide by the terms of any agreement. The US government has told mediators it wants Iran to make firm commitments on reopening the strait and to make concessions on its nuclear program.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has partially recovered to around 3.5 million bpd, from roughly 4 million bpd before the September 10 attacks, while Gulf terminal shipments have also increased. Loadings from Ras Tanura have risen to around 6.5 million barrels a day from roughly 1.5 million barrels a day in early September. Broadly, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq have restored combined crude exports to nearly 13 million bpd, around 80% of pre-war levels, improving overall supply availability. However, the sustainability of higher Gulf shipments remains uncertain as pipeline flows recover, while the global crude market remains in a 1–2 million bpd deficit. Middle Eastern supply losses are particularly constraining medium- and heavy-crude grades, forcing refiners to seek alternative barrels from Latin America and other regions.
From a technical perspective, WTI and Brent are both trading above the 21 EMA and looking to capture the short term 9 EMA. Daily RSI is muted near 46. Today, Oil presents just a slightly bullish bias.
On the 4-hour chart, Key level for WTI would be $97.8. A strong break from here would push prices to the $99.2 level which coincides with the downward sloping trendline joining the highs on 18th, 24th, and 28th September 2026. Immediate support is at $95. A break below this level can push prices to $92.4.
For Brent, upside remains strong above the $104.2 level. The next target level can be seen around $106. On the downside, a break below the $102 level can push prices to the $100 level and then $98.
