- Crude Oil
Crude Oil prices bounced back significantly on Monday, with a 1.95% rise in WTI and a 2.41% rise in Brent by the close. Despite an increase in supply from OPEC+ members over the weekend, crude oil prices continued to rise. This could primarily be due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically after Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched another attack on vessels in the Red Sea, reigniting concerns about disruptions to vital global shipping routes. The upside to the commodity may be limited, however, after the dollar rose on Trump’s postponement of the tariff implementation deadline from July to August 1st.
On Tuesday, WTI fell by about 0.50% during the Asian session, while Brent was about 0.22% lower. From a technical perspective, WTI has bounced after holding its support, indicated by a rising trendline connecting the lows of May 5th, May 30th, and yesterday’s low, at levels of $55.65, $60.14, and $66.19, respectively. Although WTI prices move above the 9-SMA on the daily chart, indicating short-term bullishness, the 200-SMA near the $68.80 level could prove to be a significant resistance.
- Gold
Gold remained steady today after nearly recovering from a 1% intraday drop yesterday, as Trump notified several nations of their new tariff rates, raising concerns about an escalating US-led trade war that increased demand for the safe-haven asset. He announced that Japan and South Korea would face 25% levies on goods, with other rates applied to different trading partners, triggering a risk-off sentiment. The House is also preparing to impose higher tariffs on countries that do not reach agreements with the US. Hence, gold has been supported by persistent uncertainty and fears related to the impact of widespread tariffs on the global economy. Meanwhile, silver has also held steady since yesterday’s session as investors digest the tariff news and closely assess the impact of any new tariff announcements until July 9.
Technically, gold printed a dragonfly doji in yesterday’s session, signifying strong demand from the tariff-related uncertainty. It is holding steady today at $3,337 and has taken support at the 9-day SMA level of $3,326 in early trading. The 21-day SMA level acts as an immediate resistance at $3,350. The daily RSI is also holding the 50 level, indicating the market is still supporting a bullish momentum stance. On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is trading within an ascending parallel channel, connecting the highs of $3,340, $3,352, and $3,359, and the lows of $3,274, $3,297, respectively. Based on this formation, it could reach the channel high at $3,370, and breaking this level would signal ongoing bullish momentum in the bullion.
