Gold:
Gold closed in the green on Friday, up 0.6%. However, the rally was short-lived as prices stuck to intraday losses through the Asian session on Monday, and the latest optimism over a US-China trade deal undermined demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products, according to a joint statement released in Geneva, in a move to cool trade tensions and give the world’s two largest economies three more months to resolve their differences.
The combined 145% US levies on most Chinese imports will be reduced to 30% including the rate tied to fentanyl by May 14, while the 125% Chinese duties on US goods will drop to 10%, according to the statement and officials in a briefing Monday. This, along with the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate cuts, assisted the US Dollar to stand firm near a multi-week top, exerting pressure on the commodity.
On the geopolitical front, risks have shown tentative signs of easing. Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to hold direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on May 15, without preconditions. Meanwhile, Hamas announced plans to release Edan Alexander, the last known American hostage held in Gaza, and confirmed it will engage in direct discussions with the US aimed at achieving a ceasefire and resuming humanitarian aid.
Looking ahead, the spotlight shifts to upcoming US inflation data and a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. These events are likely to offer fresh insights into the Fed’s monetary policy path and could play a pivotal role in shaping gold’s trajectory in the near term.
Gold is trading below 9 SMA on the daily chart. The yellow metal could test the psychological $3,200 level, followed by the $3,163 level on the 4-hour chart. Resistance can be seen at $3,300, and any recovery above this level can solidify bullish momentum.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 395.25
22 Carat – AED 366.00
21 Carat – AED 350.75
18 Carat – AED 300.75
Crude Oil
Global oil prices jumped significantly last week with a 4.38% increase in WTI and a 3.79% increase in Brent, now near a two-week high. WTI oil prices were 1.21% higher on Friday, while Monday’s Asian session saw continued strength with a 3.11% rally, backed by positive US-China trade talks over the weekend. Both sides indicated that the discussions ended positively, with temporary relief on tariffs lifting market sentiment as the world’s largest crude oil users may be near resolving their trade disputes. Such trade optimism, especially after last week’s “breakthrough” deal with the UK, eases market concerns about a recession in the US, along with increasing hopes that economic disruptions with global trading partners could be avoided, lifting dampened oil demand expectations. WTI traded above its 9-EMA level on the daily chart, with potential support around the $59.72 level, while potential 50-EMA resistance could be found around the $63.47 level. Brent was trading 1.53% higher on Monday, also above its 9-EMA level on the daily chart, with likely support near the $62.90 level, while potential resistance could be found near the $66.19 level.
Global Markets
US equity markets rallied higher on Monday, with S&P 500 futures up by 2.72% and Nasdaq 100 up by 3.56% in the Asian session. Although both indices closed relatively flat on Friday, Monday’s rise was backed by optimistic US-China trade negotiations over the weekend. Details of the negotiations were revealed early on Monday, with the US temporarily lowering tariffs on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China dropped its duties on the US from 125% to 10%. This significantly helped to ease trade tensions for the two largest economies of the world, giving them additional time to work out their economic differences. The S&P 500 has now recovered about 21% from the lows touched in April, erasing the losses caused by Trump’s announcement of trade tariffs across the world. With last week’s “breakthrough” deal with the UK and ongoing negotiations with major trading partners like Japan and India, markets seem to be taking up a risk-on sentiment. The S&P 500 trades above its 9-EMA level and has crossed over its crucial 100 and 200-EMA levels on the daily chart. The broader index can face potential resistance around the $5872 level, while potential support can be found near the $5716 level.
U.S. Dollar Index
The greenback advanced against haven currencies like the Swiss franc and yen after the U.S. temporarily lowered tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China dropped its duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. This move marks the first step in establishing a mechanism and framework to de-escalate the tariff war. It will allow the countries three months’ time to resolve their differences. As a result, the dollar hit a one-month high against the euro and yen, with the USD/JPY currency pair trading above its 50-day moving average at present. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.62% at 100.90, with 9-SMA support at 99.92 and 21-SMA support at 99.48, and 50-SMA resistance at 101.78.
Crude Oil
Global oil prices jumped significantly last week with a 4.38% increase in WTI and a 3.79% increase in Brent, now near a two-week high. WTI oil prices were 1.21% higher on Friday, while Monday’s Asian session saw continued strength with a 3.11% rally, backed by positive US-China trade talks over the weekend. Both sides indicated that the discussions ended positively, with temporary relief on tariffs lifting market sentiment as the world’s largest crude oil users may be near resolving their trade disputes. Such trade optimism, especially after last week’s “breakthrough” deal with the UK, eases market concerns about a recession in the US, along with increasing hopes that economic disruptions with global trading partners could be avoided, lifting dampened oil demand expectations. WTI traded above its 9-EMA level on the daily chart, with potential support around the $59.72 level, while potential 50-EMA resistance could be found around the $63.47 level. Brent was trading 1.53% higher on Monday, also above its 9-EMA level on the daily chart, with likely support near the $62.90 level, while potential resistance could be found near the $66.19 level.
Gold
Gold closed in the green on Friday, up 0.6%. However, the rally was short-lived as prices stuck to intraday losses through the Asian session on Monday, and the latest optimism over a US-China trade deal undermined demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products, according to a joint statement released in Geneva, in a move to cool trade tensions and give the world’s two largest economies three more months to resolve their differences.The combined 145% US levies on most Chinese imports will be reduced to 30% including the rate tied to fentanyl by May 14, while the 125% Chinese duties on US goods will drop to 10%, according to the statement and officials in a briefing Monday. This, along with the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate cuts, assisted the US Dollar to stand firm near a multi-week top, exerting pressure on the commodity.On the geopolitical front, risks have shown tentative signs of easing. Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to hold direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on May 15, without preconditions. Meanwhile, Hamas announced plans to release Edan Alexander, the last known American hostage held in Gaza, and confirmed it will engage in direct discussions with the US aimed at achieving a ceasefire and resuming humanitarian aid.Looking ahead, the spotlight shifts to upcoming US inflation data and a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. These events are likely to offer fresh insights into the Fed’s monetary policy path and could play a pivotal role in shaping gold’s trajectory in the near term.Gold is trading below 9 SMA on the daily chart. The yellow metal could test the psychological $3,200 level, followed by the $3,163 level on the 4-hour chart. Resistance can be seen at $3,300, and any recovery above this level can solidify bullish momentum.
