- Crude Oil
Crude oil prices are under pressure, trading 0.61% lower at $62.30 in today’s session after forming a Doji candlestick pattern in the previous session, signaling market indecision. Downside sentiment was reinforced by news that Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies have reached an agreement to resume crude exports via the pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. The deal is set to resolve a two-year payment dispute, unlocking around 230,000 barrels per day of additional supply at a time when the market is already facing surplus forecasts, weighing further on prices. On the geopolitical front, risks remain centered around Russia’s energy sector. Ukraine has escalated strikes on Moscow’s energy infrastructure, while Western nations continue to debate additional measures to restrict Russian oil exports. However, any meaningful tightening would require U.S. participation, particularly in addressing flows to China. With Washington prioritizing broader trade negotiations with Beijing ahead of an expected meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping next month, the likelihood of aggressive U.S. action appears limited for now.
WTI crude is trading below its 9-day SMA, reflecting a weakening short-term trend. Strong support is at $61.99 (yesterday’s low), and a break below this level could accelerate downside momentum toward the next support at $60.50. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at $63.37 (yesterday’s high), followed by $64.80. A move above these levels would be required to shift momentum back in favor of the bulls. Brent crude is trading at $66.30, down 0.38% in today’s session. Immediate support is at $65.94, while resistance is seen at $67.31.
- U.S Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index closed 0.35% lower on Monday, snapping a three-day winning streak, while the EUR/USD pair gave a 50% rebound in price. The Dollar stabilized during Tuesday’s Asian session with a 0.12% gain, while the EUR/USD traded 0.12% lower.
The greenback faced pressure from newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s comments on Monday, where he stated that the central bank should cut interest rates aggressively to reduce risks to the economy’s outlook. It is worth noting that the Governor also voted against a quarter-percentage-point reduction, instead favoring a steeper 50 bps rate cut. Lower rates generally lead to declines in the US dollar’s value. The markets are now awaiting several Fed member speeches this week, along with economic PMI figures scheduled for release today, which could impact the currency’s direction. On the Euro side, crucial PMI figures will give traders an insight into the economy’s strength today, which could lead to significant moves in the EUR/USD pair.
On a technical front, yesterday’s fall in the dollar index resulted in a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, indicating short-term weakness. However, the index is now taking support near the 9-day SMA level of 97.31, along with the lows of 9th September, stabilizing prices. The EUR/USD is showing a retest of the 1.1737 level after a breakout above it on 15th September. With prices rebounding, the near-term trend remains bullish with highs of 1st July near 1.1788 remaining the first target.
- Gold
Today Gold’s surged to a fresh record high of around $3,759. The rally is underpinned by growing expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, following its first reduction last week. With markets now pricing in nearly two more 25-basis-point cuts this year, the weakening labor market and dovish signals from the Fed have fueled bullish sentiment in precious metals.
Meanwhile, gold miners are catching up to bullion’s rally. Reflecting a shift in investor sentiment, as miners benefit from expanding margins, cash flow discipline, and valuation support. The lag in miners’ performance over the past two years appears to be reversing, with equities now delivering the leveraged upside.
From a technical standpoint, gold’s price action on the 4-hour chart reveals a strong and sustained uptrend. The pattern of higher highs and higher lows, along with consistent green candles, signals robust buying interest and minimal selling pressure. The current price hovering near $3,760 resistance suggests an imminent breakout with a second resistance near $3,790. Meanwhile support lays near previous day’s lows around $3,718.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 451.00 per gram
22 Carat – AED 417.75 per gram
21 Carat – AED 400.50 per gram
18 Carat – AED 343.25 per gram
