Crude Oil
WTI crude fell by over 4% in yesterday’s session on optimism about a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. WTI rebounded strongly in today’s session, rising over 2% to trade near $93.93, while Brent climbed 2.2% above $98.5 as renewed military escalation between the U.S. and Iran revived concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and reports of retaliatory attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have pushed geopolitical risk premiums back into oil prices. Hopes for a near-term peace agreement also weakened after President Trump stated he was not satisfied with the current terms of negotiations, reinforcing concerns that the conflict may continue for longer than expected.
Physical oil markets remain tight as shipping activity through Hormuz stays heavily constrained under ongoing blockades and security risks. API weekly crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels, marking another drawdown in U.S. stockpiles and reinforcing signs of tightening supply conditions despite easing from the previous week’s sharper 9.1 million-barrel decline. U.S. crude inventories have now fallen for six consecutive weeks, while stockpiles at the Cushing delivery hub continue to decline sharply, falling to 25.8 million barrels, reinforcing signs of tightening supply conditions. Rising transportation costs and disruptions to energy cargo flows are also adding pressure to global markets.
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a bullish near-term bias amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Immediate resistance is seen near $96, while support lies around $90.75. Brent may face resistance near $101.2 (8-day EMA), with support around $95.4 (100-day SMA).
Gold & Silver
Gold is witnessing a sharp free fall for the third consecutive session, declining more than 1% each day, with bullion currently trading 1.79% lower at $4,378. Prices have now slipped below the crucial 200-Day SMA level of $4,393, indicating increasing bearish momentum in the market. The view on gold remains bearish as long as prices remain below the 200 Day SMA level.
Gold prices have now hit a two-month low as escalating tensions between the US and Iran have intensified geopolitical uncertainty across the Middle East. Reports suggest that US forces carried out airstrikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz after intercepting Iranian drones targeting a commercial vessel. In response, the IRGC claimed responsibility for targeting the US airbase linked to the attack, warning that any further aggression would be met with a stronger response. Adding to the tensions, Kuwait confirmed that its air defence systems were responding to hostile missile and drone threats highlighting rising regional instability.
These fresh attacks have boosted the US Dollar to a one-week high, while oil prices surged more than 3% today, raising concerns about rising inflation and a prolonged higher-interest-rate environment. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while elevated crude prices increased fears that the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer to control inflation. The combination of a firm dollar, rising bond yield expectations and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Silver is also witnessing heavy selling pressure, currently trading 2.35% lower at $73.02, as concerns over weakening industrial demand are weighing on prices. Analysts are warning that silver’s sharp rally of more than 140% last year has started to deter buyers across several industries increasing fears of demand destruction. Since silver has significant industrial use, it remains more sensitive to the global economic cycle than gold, adding further downside pressure on the metal.
Technically, Gold’s immediate support is now placed at $4,272, a key horizontal support zone followed by the next major downside target at $4,168. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at today’s session high of $4,466, while stronger resistance is positioned near the 9 Day SMA at $4,506. Silver also remains technically weak, with immediate support placed at $70.37. On the higher side, resistance is positioned near the $75 mark.
U.S. Markets
Yesterday, U.S. markets started the session on a positive note, supported by optimism around U.S.–Iran negotiations and hopes of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the tone weakened as the day progressed, with the Nasdaq failing to hold above the $30,000 level after briefly touching ~$30,300 in pre-market, leading to profit-taking in high-beta technology and AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 also lost momentum around the $7,500 area, indicating some exhaustion near key resistance levels.
The inability of the Nasdaq to sustain levels above $30,000 points to fading near-term strength in leadership names, with traders trimming exposure in crowded AI and semiconductor positions. Similarly, repeated rejection around $7,500 on the S&P 500 suggests the breakout is losing conviction, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback toward the 9-day moving average near $7,448 if selling pressure builds.
Stock-level moves showed clear divergence. Snowflake stood out with a strong +25% rally, driven by upbeat earnings, solid AI-driven demand, and a $6 billion multi-year commitment with AWS, reinforcing its long-term growth narrative. In contrast, the broader software and cybersecurity space came under pressure, with Zscaler falling ~19% on weak guidance, and peers also trading lower, highlighting rising sensitivity to earnings disappointments and margin concerns.
Elsewhere, semiconductors and space-related stocks remained relatively firm, but the leadership is becoming increasingly narrow, with gains concentrated in select high-beta names rather than broad-based participation. This typically reflects a more mature phase of the rally, where momentum becomes more selective and less stable.
On the macro side, conditions are still broadly supportive, oil remains below $100/bbl and yields are under 4.5%, but intraday sentiment has shifted slightly cautious as markets focus more on execution risk around geopolitical developments rather than just positive headlines.
Overall, the session has turned mildly cautious to bearish, with failed breakouts in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, weakening market breadth, and increased volatility across growth sectors suggesting short-term downside risk.
From a technical standpoint, $30,000 on the Nasdaq and $7,500 on the S&P 500 remain key levels. A sustained break below these could open room for further weakness toward $7,448 on the S&P 500, while upside remains capped at $7,550 and $7,608. Near-term momentum is likely to remain choppy, with a preference for selling on rallies until stability returns.
