U.S. Markets
The SPX notched another record close yesterday amid optimism over an extended ceasefire. The index rose 0.6% yesterday, closing at $7,130 with tech and AI infrastructure stocks driving the momentum. However, it is trading slightly lower today at around $7,100 amid developments in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices. The bias remains moderately bullish.
US stock markets are bifurcating sharply as tech builds a huge lead over the rest of the sectors, while consumers absorb the Iran oil shock. The Nasdaq 100 made a record close at $26,955, rising 1.4%. With Google’s TPU upgrades launch being the latest example, adding to renewed optimism over semiconductor spending, the list of S&P 500 names making new records is heavily populated with companies across the semiconductor ecosystem, be it designing, testing, or fabrication. This move has been supported by earnings, which are tracking the outperformance over the broad economy very closely. Tesla reported $1.4 billion in positive free cash flow for the first quarter, surprising analysts who expected a negative figure. The carmaker’s first-quarter revenue rose 16% to $22.4 billion, and its net income grew 17% in the period ending March 31. The major names reporting earnings today include Intel (semiconductors), Lockheed Martin (defence), Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont Corporation (both in mining). 0DTE option flows today point to the $7,050 level as possible support, and the $7,150 level remains a key resistance level due to the positive GEX concentration. Unless there is major news, especially in the geopolitical context, that drives a further spike in oil prices, the price action is likely to be range-bound.
Technically, a break above $7,150 could open the door to the next major resistance level at $7,200. On the downside, possible support is likely at the $7050-$7,070 range, followed by the $7,000 level. SPX is trading above all major EMAs on a daily timeframe (all EMAs sloping higher), supporting the bullish view.
Crude Oil
WTI crude is extending gains for the third day in a row, now trading near $96.93, up 1.4%. Brent is also up 1.4%, trading near $104. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are supporting prices. Reports of three vessel seizures yesterday have increased concerns, reinforcing fears of prolonged constraints on a critical global oil transit route.
Even though the U.S. has extended the ceasefire, talks have stalled, and Iran is firm on its stance of keeping the Strait closed, which is keeping prices elevated. Global demand remains strong, as shown by U.S. crude and product exports reaching record levels amid buyers seeking alternative supply sources. However, a surprise build of 1.9 million barrels in EIA inventories has limited upside, with prices retreating from the day’s high of $100.05, suggesting that short-term supply is available in the U.S.
Market positioning is supporting prices. Options data show high open interest near the $100 strike for May 2026 WTI contracts, suggesting traders expect prices to move higher toward that level.
Overall, the intraday bias remains bullish as long as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue. WTI faces immediate resistance at $98.62, at its 20-day SMA. A sustained break above this level could pave the way toward $100.92 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour chart). On the downside, support is seen around $94.05. For Brent, support is located at today’s low near $102.5, which also coincides with the 20-day SMA, while immediate resistance is seen around $107.
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index remains firm, trading around the 98.5–98.7 range, as the broader macro backdrop continues to support the greenback. The main driver remains the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff, with little progress toward a lasting resolution. Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz, including disruptions to shipping flows, have pushed oil prices back above $100, increasing concerns about a prolonged energy shock.
This environment is weighing on global risk sentiment and supporting safe-haven demand for the dollar. Markets are now largely in a wait-and-see mode, with reduced conviction in directional trades amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Earlier optimism around a ceasefire has faded, and the current situation is increasingly being seen as a longer-term issue rather than a short-term disruption. From a policy perspective, rising energy prices are feeding into inflation expectations, which is keeping central banks cautious. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold for longer, with rate cuts pushed further out as inflation risks stay elevated. This higher-for-longer rate environment continues to support the dollar. At the same time, growth concerns are building outside the U.S. The eurozone is already showing signs of slowing, with weak PMI readings and downward revisions to growth forecasts. This divergence between relatively resilient U.S. data and softer global growth is adding to dollar strength.
The DXY has shown strong momentum this week and is now approaching an important level near 98.73, which has shifted from a support zone in March and early April to a key resistance area. A sustained move above this level would reinforce the bullish structure and open the path toward the 21-day SMA near 99.05. But the index might see a minor pullback toward the 98.50 zone, which is likely to act as a strong base. This level is supported by a rising trendline from recent lows, along with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, making it a solid support area. As long as the index holds above this zone, it is likely to build strength and make another attempt to break above 98.73. Overall, the focus remains on price action around 98.73. Holding above 98.50 keeps the structure constructive and supports the case for an eventual breakout higher. EUR/USD is showing signs of weakness after forming a tweezer top reversal pattern. The pair is likely to remain under pressure, with support near the 200-day SMA at 1.167, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.162. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1.171, with a stronger barrier near the 9-day SMA at 1.175.
Gold and Silver
Gold gained over 1% in yesterday’s session, benefiting from Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran. However, it eventually pared some of those gains and is down 0.53% today at $4,713. The precious metal has broken below a rising wedge pattern that formed on the day chart in recent weeks. However, the near-confluence of the 21-day and 100-day SMAs in the $4,694-$4,724 zone has created an area of support. This suggests gold could consolidate in the near-term until further catalysts emerge. Inflation risks remain on top of investors’ minds as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. As a result, the dollar remains strong while oil prices are up for the fourth straight session, keeping gold prices range-bound. On the fundamental front, gold ETFs have seen sustained inflows over the past three weeks, which has provided some support. Only a break below $4,640, roughly aligning with the 13th April swing low, could weaken gold further. Until then, and until further catalysts emerge, gold is likely to tread water in a range between $4,695 and $4,890.
Silver is down 2.17% at $76.02. A stronger dollar and Kevin Warsh’s mildly hawkish tone are among the contributing factors. Moreover, Trump’s extension of the ceasefire sparked an improvement in risk appetite in the markets, thereby paring immediate demand for safe havens. Nonetheless, silver continues to see industrial demand from the semiconductor and solar panel industries in the long run. Silver has 21-day SMA support at $75.09, and would have to soar past $78.28, marked by the confluence of the 9-SMA and 100-SMA, for it to re-enter a rising wedge pattern on the day chart.
