Precious metals continue to face selling pressure, with Gold falling 2.71%, breaching below the $4000 mark, while Silver witnessed a sharp 6.69% drop to fall below the $60 level on Wednesday. Thursday’s Asian session sees the trend continue, with Gold trading 0.50% lower and Silver trading 0.70% lower.
The pressure continues on metals as the US dollar climbs on prospects of higher interest rates in the US. Markets are pricing in one 25 bps rate hike, along with 42% odds of another rate hike by the end of the year. This has led the US Dollar Index to rise by about 1.82% over the past two weeks, adding headwinds for greenback-priced metals. A hawkish tone from the Fed makes bullion less attractive relative to yield-bearing assets like Treasuries. Moreover, the US’s favourable energy position and massive investments in AI, along with a robust macroeconomic picture, are increasing the dollar’s appeal relative to energy-importing economies such as Europe and Asia. The fall in Gold prices has also led major banks to cut price forecasts for gold in the last week, with Goldman Sachs now estimating bullion to end the year at $4,900.
Technically, gold prices have touched levels last seen in November 2025, breaking below a key support level from the lows of 11th June near $4023, suggesting a bearish stance for the short term. However, for an intraday perspective, there seems to be a bullish RSI divergence forming by connecting the lows of 11th and 25th June, potentially providing trading opportunities. Silver, meanwhile, looks bearish, falling below the key support zone near $61-$62, with RSI falling deeper into the oversold territory as well. The next potential support might come near the $54 level, based on the highs achieved in late 2025.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 480.75
22 Carat – AED 445.25
21 Carat – AED 426.75
18 Carat – AED 365.75
U.S. Markets
SPX opens Thursday firmer, with E-mini futures up ~0.5%, while NDX contracts are trading up by 2.03% following Micron’s blowout earnings after yesterday’s close. A decidedly risk-on session in Asia is well-positioned to extend into the European open as AI optimism returns in force.
Micron delivered what can only be described as its strongest quarter in company history. Q3 revenue beat expectations by more than 15%, with demand for AI infrastructure described as insatiable. EPS came in at $25.11 against a consensus of $20.28, a beat of over 24%, while Q4 revenue guidance of $50 billion dwarfed analyst estimates of $43.58 billion. Q4 EPS guidance of $30.00 to $32.00 similarly surpassed the $24.80 consensus by a wide margin. Micron also signalled that demand for memory chips is expected to outpace supply through at least 2027. After Tuesday’s vicious semiconductor selloff, this result is precisely the reset the AI trade needed and should go a long way toward restoring confidence in the broader memory complex.
The second tailwind comes from oil. WTI has fallen below $70 per barrel, its lowest level since before the Iran conflict began, extending losses for a fourth consecutive session and nearly wiping out all the gains made since the outbreak of hostilities. Growing confidence in a lasting agreement has encouraged tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz with tracking signals on.
However, the single most important event of the day remains this afternoon’s May PCE print. Following Warsh’s hawkish debut last week, core PCE is expected to rise from April’s reading, and even a modest upside surprise risks pulling October rate hike expectations firmly into market pricing. A soft print on the other hand, combined with Micron’s blockbuster results and falling oil, could deliver a powerful three-way catalyst for a meaningful move higher. Markets are poised, but the PCE will have the final word today.
Technically, SPX needs to reclaim and hold above the 9-day and 21-day SMAs at 7436 and 7472, respectively, to confirm that Tuesday’s selloff was the shakeout it appeared to be rather than the beginning of something more serious. A clean recovery above 7,450 would be constructive. On the upside, 7,550 remains the level to watch. On the downside, support lies at 7,341, the 21-day SMA. Similarly, for NDX , a clean break above the 9 and 21-day SMA at 29,876 may reignite bullish momentum. On the downside, support lies at 28,700, the 50-day SMA.
Crude Oil
Oil prices erased wartime gains, with Brent crude down around 0.3% near $73/bbl and WTI is trading flat around $71/bbl, as markets continue to unwind the geopolitical risk premium that drove prices sharply higher during the US-Iran conflict.
The key driver remains the rapid normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz following progress on the US-Iran peace agreement. Increased tanker traffic and the return of previously disrupted Gulf exports have flooded physical markets with supply, reversing the severe tightness seen during the conflict.
Signs of oversupply are becoming increasingly visible. Physical crude markets across the Middle East, Africa and Europe are weakening, while Brent’s prompt spread has flipped into contango, a bearish market structure that typically signals abundant near-term supply. Chinese refiners, which were aggressive buyers during the conflict, are now reportedly well supplied and have reduced spot demand. The shift in sentiment has been equally evident in positioning. Brent net-long positions have fallen to a six-month low, while implied volatility has retreated to pre-war levels as traders abandon bullish supply-disruption bets. Despite low inventory levels in some regions, particularly at Cushing, Oklahoma, the market’s focus has shifted back toward the prospect of a global supply surplus heading into 2027.
WTI remains under pressure after breaking below its descending channel, which is reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend. As prices remain below the key resistance level of 71.34, Â the near-term bias remains skewed to the downside. A failure to reclaim this level could see WTI extend losses toward the first support at 70.38. A decisive break below this area would expose the next downside target at 69.62. Unless buyers regain control above 71.34, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, with the broader technical structure continuing to favor further weakness. For Brent, a support breach of 72.78 could pressure brent lower towards 70.4. Resistance remains at 75.39.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar rose 0.19% in yesterday’s session and is marginally up in today’s session.
The dollar trades steady after reaching a 13-month high of 101.8 on Wednesday. This comes as investors await key inflation data that could provide clues on whether the Fed could raise interest rates this year as expected.
PCE price data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due before market open today. Weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q1 GDP are also expected today. Risk sentiment improved after upbeat earnings from Micron Technology, and oil prices falling to pre-war levels. This slightly dampens the dollar’s upward momentum today. However, the dollar remains strong overall and will continue to add pressure on gold and emerging-market currencies as higher US interest-rate expectations widen yield differentials.
The yield divergence is most evident in EUR/USD, a proxy for broader developed-market dynamics and also a bellwether for EM FX, where ECB tightening expectations are beginning to stall amid widening US-Europe growth differences. This continues to support the greenback, attracting both yield-seeking and defensive inflows.
On a technical basis, the dollar index is still above the key 101.1 level and is trading above the 9 and 21 EMA for the day. The 5-period RSI is at 88, indicating very strong bullish momentum. On the 1-hour chart, immediate support is 101.4, which coincides with the 50 EMA. Below this level, the next support is at the breakout zone of 101.1. Immediate resistance is at 101.8, which is yesterday’s session high. A sustained move above this level can send the dollar back to its 12th May 2025 high of 102.
