- U.S. MarketsÂ
The SPX Index and NDX Index are both up 0.50% and 0.65% today, respectively, and are currently trading at $6,757 and $24,955.
- Gold & Silver
Gold ended flat in yesterday’s session, trading in a narrow range near $5,000, as markets adopt a wait-and-watch approach ahead of the FOMC policy decision. Today in the Asian session, the metal is down 0.4% to $4,986. While ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Israel-Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to support safe-haven demand, upside momentum remains capped.
Elevated oil prices are fuelling inflation concerns, which have forced markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory. Expectations have shifted notably, with traders now pricing in a 99% chance of no change in rates at today’s FOMC meeting. Policymakers may need to keep rates higher for longer. This has supported bullish inflows into the US dollar, which is emerging as a key headwind for gold.
Despite rising geopolitical risks, gold has struggled to rally meaningfully, highlighting a shift in market focus toward interest rates and currency strength. Although the medium-term bias has not turned bearish as gold holds steady near $5,000, from a technical point of view, near-term bias appears mildly bearish, with resistance seen around $5,060–$5,080, while immediate support lies near $4,950, followed by $4,920. A sustained break below these levels could trigger further downside, though broader risks remain tilted to the upside, with dips likely to attract buying interest. Silver is trading 0.3% down, around $79. Resistance may be seen at yesterday’s high of $82.50, while support lies around $77, a previously tested level.
- Crude Oil
Oil prices saw a bit of a breather on Wednesday, easing after Iraq reached an agreement to restart exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port, offering a workaround to the Strait of Hormuz. While this development has helped calm the market slightly in the short term, the relief is limited. Iraqi output is still running at around 1.4 million barrels per day, which is only about a third of pre-disruption levels. After the sharp rally earlier in the week, Brent slipped back below $101/bbl, while WTI hovered near $93/bbl.
That said, the broader picture hasn’t changed much. Geopolitical risks remain front and centre, with the U.S. intensifying strikes on Iranian anti-ship infrastructure near Hormuz, and Iran confirming the loss of a key security figure. The strait itself is still effectively under Iranian control, and tanker movement remains heavily restricted. Considering that nearly 20% of global oil flows typically pass through this route, the disruption continues to keep a firm floor under prices.
Attempts to reopen the waterway are proving difficult, both from a logistical and political standpoint, with limited global coordination so far. As things stand, supply disruptions of around 11–16 mbpd could persist in the near term. While rerouting shipments and tapping into reserves may ease some pressure, they are unlikely to fully bridge the gap.
At the moment, Brent is down 2.46% at $100.92, while WTI is lower by 3.43% at $92.60. From a trading perspective, prices remain range-bound but elevated. Brent is likely to trade between $95 and $110, with upside risks toward $120 if tensions escalate further. For WTI, support lies between $89.54 and $91.06, with a break below potentially opening the door to $87. On the upside, a move above $99.70 could trigger further momentum toward $105.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar has retreated from its recent highs and closed the previous two sessions in the red. It’s trading softly in the ongoing session, around $99.50 ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision today.
On a fundamental level, the dollar’s upswing has paused as the oil rally fades. That said, the broader backdrop leans supportive. Ongoing concerns around Europe and parts of Asia facing an acute energy squeeze continue to underpin relative US resilience, reinforcing the greenback’s appeal amid the ongoing petrodollar surge. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is due today, and it points to a near-certain rate hold. This, along with lower expectations for further Fed rate cuts down the year amid rising inflation concerns, will support DXY in the near term. However, the dollar is drifting with the tide of risk aversion, which may carry more weight than the Fed this week. According to Bloomberg Economics’ drivers model, risk sentiment accounts for most of the currency’s swing this month. The dollar and US stocks are at their most inversely correlated (60-day rolling correlation) level in nearly a year, at -0.38. Today’s economic data release features the US PPI for February, and focus will be on goods inflation for any recent tariff-related effects. The yen’s path against the dollar will likely be downward, as key fundamental drivers will overwhelm anything short of drastic intervention. Those are up to the government.
Technically, DXY has near-term support at $99.45, followed by the 200-day EMA at $99 on the daily chart. Resistance could be near yesterday’s open of $99.86, followed by the $100-$100.10 zone. EUR/USD has support from yesterday’s open of 1.150, while resistance could be around the 200-day EMA at 1.158. The euro is biased lower due to the dollar’s strength.
