- US Markets
The SPX index slipped 1.2% yesterday amid tech, AI, and broader selling that hit markets. This marked the third consecutive day of decline for the index. The indications are clear that AI spending will be rewarded by the markets only if its monetisation pipeline has started bearing fruits, beats expectations and generates strong cash flow. The index is trading steadily around $6,790 in today’s session.
Weak job data yesterday and deepening AI anxiety pushed the S&P 500 into the red for the year. Nasdaq fell 1.4%, wiping previous 2 months’ gains. It’s trading at its lowest valuation in 9 months, with a 12-month blended forward P/E of 23.84, down from a peak of 28 in October last year. Amazon reported earnings in line with expectations and strong revenue growth across business segments. However, increased capex plans for 2026, along with lower operating earnings guidance for the next quarter, sent the stock down 8-10% in after-hours trading. The Cboe Volatility Index, which gauges expected moves in the S&P 500 over the next month, has risen to the top of the range of the past two years versus the S&P’s 10-day realised volatility. Initial jobless claims rose to 231K (up 10% MoM), while job openings fell 6% MoM, complicating the Fed’s path to maintaining low unemployment amid rising AI adoption. Markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a Fed rate hold, according to CME Fedwatch, down from 90% 2 days ago.
Technically, SPX might find support at the 100-day SMA at $6,796. The $6,700–$6,750 range is a crucial support zone. The 50-day SMA at $6,880 is likely to act as key resistance. Yesterday’s support zone of the $6,850–$6,880 range has now turned into a possible resistance zone. Any potent upside catalysts for the index remain muted.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index is ending the week on a firmer footing, up 0.65% for the week. It is currently hovering near 97.80 (-0.17%) as markets digest the softer U.S. labour indicators. The dollar has risen in three of the last four sessions, showing notable resilience, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal amid global risk aversion sparked by the selloff in AI-linked equities.
The dollar’s resilience reflects a shift in market psychology following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which has revived the prospects of a balance-sheet reduction going forward. That backdrop is reinforcing expectations of a structurally firmer dollar environment.
As a result, risk markets are demanding a higher premium, triggering profit-taking across previously crowded, high-beta trades. The unwind has been most visible in precious metals, particularly silver, and in mega-cap and high-CAPEX technology names. This rotation has underpinned demand for the dollar even as U.S. labour data softened, with safe-haven flows and steady Treasury demand offsetting traditionally dollar-negative signals.
Looking ahead, the dollar could receive another tailwind from Japan. Polls pointing to a ruling-party victory in this weekend’s election have weakened the yen, on expectations of fiscal expansion. A decisive result could further pressure JPY and lend incremental support to the DXY. EUR/USD is up around 0.2% today after the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged, as anticipated.
Near-term momentum and risk dynamics suggest the intraday bias remains mildly bullish, with the DXY likely to stay supported into the close. On the daily charts, DXY faces resistance at the 20-day SMA, at 97.95. Support is seen at 97.60. The EURUSD pair may find support at 1.175 and resistance at 1.186.
- Crude Oil
WTI has rebounded from the yesterday session’s losses, and is trading around $64.12 per barrel. It is up 1.62% at the time of writing. The recovery reflects renewed geopolitical risk premium and stabilising positioning, even as broader supply fundamentals remain adequate. While WTI remains on track for its first weekly loss since mid-December, it indicates some unwinding of geopolitical premium.
Speculative positioning shows a cautious shift back toward bullishness. Non-commercial net long positions in Nymex WTI crude futures rose to 96,982 contracts in the week ended Jan. 30, according to CFTC data. While positioning remains 58.7% below July highs, the decline in bullish bets has halted since mid-December, suggesting traders are no longer pressing bearish views at current price levels. Historically, futures positioning has tended to track price cycles closely, including in 2009–11, 2016–18 and 2020–22.
Geopolitics remains the dominant driver. Oil prices rose ahead of planned U.S.–Iran talks in Oman after Iranian media signaled there would be no quick resolution. Discussions are expected to focus on broad issues rather than technical details. That has kept short-term supply risks elevated, even as markets continue to debate the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough.
On a technical level, the 4h chart shows that WTI trading in a triangle‑like formation. Any upside attempts may find resistance from the upper trendline resistance around $65.07. If WTI breaks above the trendline resistance, the next price it could target is $66.48, which is previous week’s highs. On the flipside, the downside remains well protected,as WTI prices could find support around the 200‑day SMA of $62.2. As for Brent, the daily chart shows resistance at this week’s high of $69.7 and support at $66.7, which has been tested several times.
- Gold and Silver
Both gold and silver are in the green today after testing key levels in yesterday’s session. Gold is up 1.3% while silver is up 2% on Friday. Spot silver hit a low of $64 in the Asian session before rebounding. That followed a 20% decline in the previous session that wiped out all of the metal’s gains from a spectacular rally last month.
A sharp reduction in Chinese buying over the past week resulted in silver struggling to find support. Chinese prices have flipped to a discount against international benchmarks, with violent market moves discouraging buyers. Open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to the lowest in more than four years, showing that positions are being closed.
The more liquid gold market has performed slightly better than silver. Overall market consensus has reiterated bullish long-term outlooks for the yellow metal. However, in the near term, both metals have a bearish tilt.
The high volatility in precious metals has raised concerns about their ability to serve as effective hedges against risk.
From a technical perspective, gold fell below the 21 SMA yesterday and is trying to recapture it. RSI is around 44, indicating moderate momentum. This adds to the bearish bias for gold. On the 1-hour chart, immediate resistance is at $4,919 (50 SMA), followed by the $5,038 (200 SMA). A strong break above these levels can push prices to the $5,134 level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Immediate support is at $4,753, which is the 3rd Feb 2026 breakout, followed by $4,657.
Silver is still trading below the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart and has an RSI of 28, indicating that it is in the oversold territory. On the 1-hour chart, resistance is at $81 (100 SMA), followed by the $96 level (200 SMA). Immediate support is today’s session low of $64 and then $57.
