On the charts, the index held above the critical 50-day SMA at 6,752, which became a crucial support level established in yesterday’s session. From a technical perspective, the index is forming a bull flag on the 4-hour chart suggesting consolidation. This pattern looks positive for momentum traders if we see a breakout happen with strong volume. If the index bounces convincingly from the 50-day SMA, a break above 6,772 (the upper trendline of the bull flag) on strong volume would target the 100-day SMA also yesterday’s highs at 6,806. Above 6,806, the next target would be 6,850. However, yesterday’s failure at the 100-day SMA carries weight, as this level now represents structural resistance that the market has struggled to overcome. On the flipside, if the index breaks below the 50-day SMA at 6,752, the index could target 6,710 as a key support level. The 200-day SMA at 6,673 remains the next crucial support. The market is seemingly entering into a wide but defined range around 6,670–6,850, where mechanical flows and positioning dynamics will likely dominate over fundamental reassessment.
US Dollar
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ended Wednesday’s session near the 99 mark, around 0.52% lower, after briefly touching about a month’s low near the 98.52 level. Thursday’s early session is seeing renewed strength with the index trading about 0.07% higher. The EUR/USD pair jumped 0.60% on Wednesday, breaching above the 1.1650 mark, while on Thursday, the pair is trading flat.
The US Dollar was supported by renewed safe-haven demand after the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran appeared to be on thin ice, as tensions continued in Lebanon, while Iran accused the US of violating the agreement. It remains to be seen whether a decisive agreement can be reached amid such tensions, which are causing uncertainty in the markets and leading to a spike in the greenback. The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday suggested yet another wait-and-watch view by the central bank, acknowledging its data-heavy approach. Most members supported a hold for interest rates, with nearly all participants backing no change, and many viewing policy as already near a neutral range, implying a high bar for further tightening. This added tailwinds to the dollar index, capping any significant downside. Additionally, the odds of rates remaining the same by the end of the year, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, jumped back to about 74.2% today due to renewed tensions, after falling to near 55% on optimism about falling oil prices.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar index formed a bullish candlestick on the daily chart with a long lower wick, erasing its losses by the end of yesterday’s session. The price bounced off from a previous support level around the lows of 10th March, near the 98.50 level, while also taking support from the 100-day EMA near the 98.80 level. Upward momentum can continue if the 99.16 level is broken, with the 21-day EMA providing potential resistance near 99.48, which will also mark filling of a gap created by the lower open in yesterday’s session.
Crude Oil
WTI crude oil witnessed a sharp sell-off in the previous session, declining by 13.31%, hitting an intraday low of $91.73 after which strong buying interest emerged, pushing prices higher to settle at $97.04. From an intraday trading perspective, $91.73 remains a crucial support level. As long as prices hold above this level, the intraday bias remains bullish. At the time of writing, WTI crude is trading at $98.16, up 1.12% during Thursday’s Asian session indicating a continuation of recovery momentum.
On the fundamental front, geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate market sentiment. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf(Iran’s parliamentary speaker) stated that the United States has breached the ceasefire agreement, further escalating tensions.
Iran has also informed mediators that it will restrict vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz to around a dozen ships per day, significantly tightening supply flows. On Wednesday, only four ships were allowed to pass, while congestion has intensified, with over 425 oil and fuel tankers and nearly 20 LNG vessels awaiting transit through this critical chokepoint.
The current geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, with conflicting statements and intentions from the US, Iran, and Israel, as none of the parties are aligned or agreeing on a common conclusion. The lack of clarity around ceasefire stability will continue to inject volatility into oil markets.
Given the sharp reduction in vessel movement and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the near term outlook for crude remains bullish, provided prices sustain above the key support of $91.73.
Technically, for WTI Crude, immediate support is seen at $93.48 (horizontal line resistance), followed by the key support level of yesterday’s low at $91.73. Immediate resistance is at the 9 Day SMA at the $104 level, followed by yesterday’s high of $109.74. Brent Crude is currently trading at $99.07, up around 0.89%, with key support at $92 and resistance at $109.55. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at 1.19.
Gold & Silver
Gold is trading flat for the day after pulling back from highs near $4,840, as it failed to hold above the $4,800 level. Despite this, price action remains stable, with $4,700 emerging as a key level, which aligns with the base of the ascending channel formed after the 200-day moving average test on March 23. This level is likely to be strong support and will be important for the near-term direction.
From a macro perspective, the war situation remains uncertain. Negotiations have not formally begun, with both sides presenting separate proposals through mediators. Formal talks are set to begin in Islamabad on Saturday, led by US Vice President JD Vance. While a temporary ceasefire is in place, developments around the Strait of Hormuz are mixed, with reports of restricted movement, possible transit fees, and ongoing tensions. This indicates that geopolitical risk has eased slightly but is still present.
Oil remains a key factor to watch. Although prices corrected earlier, any sharp rise in crude, especially alongside a stronger dollar, could put pressure on gold. Given the strong inverse relationship between gold, oil, and the dollar, crude price action will be important in determining whether the $4,700 support holds.
Technically, gold remains within a bullish ascending channel, and as long as $4,700 holds, the overall structure stays positive. A move back above $4,800 could support further upside toward $4,900+, while a break below may lead to additional weakness.
Silver has pulled back after yesterday’s rally and is now trading near the descending trendline it recently attempted to break. It is currently holding above the $73 support level, which was last week’s consolidation range. As long as this level holds, the bullish trend remains intact, with upside potential toward $77.5, followed by the $80 level.
However, if silver falls below $73, it may lose momentum and move back into the earlier range of $73–$69. Overall, the setup remains positive, with $73 as the key level to watch.
