Netflix heads into earnings with a business that keeps finding new ways to make money, even as questions grow over whether people are actually watching more. The problem is that shares are down 25% year to date, and revenue growth is expected to slow to 11.7% from 13.3% last quarter and down from 16.2% in the first quarter. With Netflix no longer reporting subscriber numbers and moving its viewing report to an annual release starting in 2027, investors have fewer ways to gauge whether that growth is driven by a larger audience or simply higher prices. The focus is going to be keeping growth at double digits heading into next year, especially with the backdrop of a strained consumer, said Josh Gilbert, etoro Lead Analyst APAC and Middle East.
Management has guided to revenue of USD$12.86 billion, EPS of USD$0.82 and an operating margin of 33.2%, and Netflix has a solid track record on that front, beating EPS expectations in seven of the last eight quarters. That still hasn’t cut the mustard, with shares ending lower a week after its result for the last five earnings releases. Advertising remains the brightest spot, with ad revenue on track to roughly double to around USD$3 billion this year, while live events like the NFL Christmas games give viewers a reason to tune in at a set time, which is exactly what advertisers pay a premium for.
The softer spot is engagement, with viewing hours up just 2% in the first half, which raises the question of whether Netflix is still winning more of people’s time or simply charging more for the time it already has. The appointment of Peter Rice as chief creative officer, starting days after this result, puts content squarely in the spotlight, and pricing is being tested in the UAE too, where Netflix plans now run from Dh35 to Dh71 a month and the platform faces strong regional competition from the likes of Shahid and OSN+, so it has to keep earning its place in households’ budgets.
Netflix has proven it can make more money from its audience, but the full-year outlook will show whether investors should still treat it as a growth company or a mature streamer that’s getting better at monetisation.
