Crude Oil
Oil retreated almost 2% in today’s session, pulling back from multi-week highs as investors weighed reports of ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict against fears of renewed US military action against Iran. Qatari and Iranian officials continued their discussions for a third consecutive day, seeking an agreement to end the US-Israel war on Iran ahead of this week’s US midterm elections. However, the broader outlook for oil remains bullish, as Trump has also said he may resume military action after the midterm elections. The Brent-WTI spread is currently trading at approximately $13, significantly above its long-term average of $4.59. Additionally, Brent futures have rolled into the January contract, while WTI continues to trade in the December contract. If geopolitical tensions escalate further or supply is disrupted, investors may increasingly favour WTI’s more immediate supply availability as Brent-linked supply faces potential constraints. This could narrow the spread, creating scope for mean reversion toward its long-term average.
Technically, WTI is trading at $101.6 and consolidating on the daily timeframe. On the hourly timeframe, it has immediate support at $101.16, and the 5-period RSI is extremely oversold. This may lead to a bounce back higher, provided it holds the support at $101.16. A bounce from here could lead to prices testing $104.3, which coincides with the fib retracement drawn from the recent high of $106.19 to the low of $ 101.21. Conversely, the bullish thesis is invalidated if it closes below 101.21 on the daily chart.
Brent is trading at $114.64 and consolidating on the daily timeframe. On the hourly timeframe, it has immediate support at $113.89, and the 5-period RSI is extremely oversold. This may lead to a bounce back higher, provided it holds the support at $113.89. A bounce from here could lead to prices testing $117.09, which coincides with the fib retracement drawn from the recent high of $119.16 to the low of $ 113.73. Conversely, the bullish thesis is invalidated if it closes below $113.89 on the daily chart.
Gold and Silver
Gold declined 3% last week, extending losses for a third consecutive week as rising Treasury yields and conflicting macroeconomic signals weighed on sentiment. While persistent inflation and uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook support safe-haven demand, elevated long-term yields and the prospect of higher real rates continue to pressure the non-yielding metal. Diverging investor positioning adds to volatility, with resilient ETF holdings signalling sustained institutional interest, while bearish CTA positioning reflects weakening momentum. Gold has rebounded 0.84% to $3,907 today, supported by bargain hunting and moderating oil prices. However, escalating Middle East tensions could revive safe-haven demand, while the global technology selloff risks triggering further liquidation as investors raise cash to cover losses elsewhere.
Silver demand is expected to remain subdued through 2030 as elevated prices accelerate thrifting in solar manufacturing and curb jewellery consumption. Industrial demand is projected to decline in 2026 before recovering gradually, supported by data centres, automotive electrification and grid investment. Photovoltaic silver demand could contract 11% in 2026 amid slower Chinese installations, US policy uncertainty and increasing adoption of silver-saving technologies. Jewellery demand is projected to fall to 178 million ounces, primarily reflecting weaker Indian consumption as high prices encourage lighter designs and reduced silver content. China’s substitution of expensive gold with silver offers some support but is unlikely to offset broader demand weakness.
Technically, gold broke below its trendline last week before retesting $4,085 as resistance and retreating toward $3,900. The metal is now testing its 100-week EMA at $3,881, where a successful rebound could drive prices toward the psychological $4,000 level. A sustained close above $4,000 could encourage renewed buying interest, while a break below $3,881 would increase downside risks. Silver is testing critical support near $50, corresponding to its 2011 highs. A decisive breakdown could expose $44, while a rebound could lift prices toward $54.60.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 470.25
22 Carat – AED 435.50
21 Carat – AED 417.50
18 Carat – AED 358.00
