- Crude Oil
Oil markets experienced a turbulent week marked by fluctuations as concerns surrounding the prolonged trade war between the United States and China weighed heavily on prices. This follows a 13% decline in the previous week, reflecting the heightened uncertainty gripping the oil market. The escalating dispute between the world’s two largest economies has raised fears of reduced global trade volumes and disruptions in trading routes, potentially leading to a slowdown in global economic growth. As investors grapple with ongoing trade negotiations and rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Concerns about a global economic slowdown, coupled with downward revisions in demand forecasts, are likely to continue exerting pressure on oil prices in the short term. On the chart, Brent is trading below the 9-day SMA and could see resistance at $66.11 and support at $62.30. WTI is also trading below the 9-day SMA and could encounter resistance at $62.20 and support at $59.50.GoldGold surged past $3,200 per ounce on Friday, supported by a weaker US dollar and rising safe-haven demand amid escalating US-China trade tensions. The dollar was down nearly 1% against its major peers, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers. On Thursday, the US clarified that tariffs on Chinese imports had risen to 145%, with a new 125% levy added on top of an earlier 20% duty. US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, leading traders to bet the Fed will resume rate cuts in June and potentially lower its policy rate by a full percentage point by year-end.
On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading above the 9-day SMA at $3,200. Immediate resistance can be seen at the psychological level of $3,250, and the yellow metal can see potential support at $3,190.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:24 Carat – AED 386.5022 Carat – AED 358.0021 Carat – AED 343.2518 Carat – AED 294.25
US MarketsThe Nasdaq Composite declined 4.3% while the S&P 500 registered a 3.5% loss. Markets appear doubtful about upcoming negotiations with U.S. trade partners and are cautious about a potential escalation of trade tensions with China. Meanwhile, March’s inflation reading cooled to 2.4% YoY, below the estimated 2.6%. Hotel, airline, and gasoline prices declined sharply last month, signalling nervousness amongst consumers. Earlier this week, Delta Air Lines refrained from offering full-year guidance, citing lack of economic clarity. Big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Bank of New York Mellon kick off the earnings season today. Investors will scrutinize forward guidance to gauge just how confident or worried management sounds about the rest of the year. The S&P 500 is up 1.2% at $5,331, with 50-SMA support at $5,286 and 21-SMA support at $5,185 on the 4-hour chart. It could encounter 100-SMA resistance at $5,483 on the same timeframe.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The US dollar dropped by 1.9% in yesterday’s trading. This came after inflation data for March showed prices rising by 2.8% compared to last year, lower than the expected 3% and down from 3.1% in February. The decline in inflation is a positive sign for the economy. Markets are now expecting about three interest rate cuts in 2025. At the same time, jobless claims report matched expectations. Next week, investors can look forward to Powell’s address and Initial Jobless Claims report as a sign on the health of the labour market. On the technical side, the dollar is trading below its 9-day moving average at $99.65. It has immediate resistance at $101.70 and support at $98.54.
- Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency prices declined on Friday as global markets reacted to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. While US President Donald Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs, the move was overshadowed by a steep 145% tariff imposed on Chinese imports, prompting swift retaliation from Beijing. The escalation spooked investors, pushing them toward safe-haven assets. The Swiss franc climbed to a decade high against the dollar, while gold touched a fresh peak. Bitcoin was trading at $80,955, down 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum slid 3.8% to $1,532. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell 1.09% to $2.58 trillion.
Current crypto market and Bitcoin volatility is a product of the complex ballet of macroeconomic and crypto-native influences. Trump’s tariff reprieve and receding inflation are short-term reliefs, but investor sentiment remains cautious,” said Avinash Shekhar, Cofounder & CEO, Pi42, citing over $772 million outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. This triggered concerns over global growth and heightened market volatility. Bitcoin’s resistance is seen at $83,700, while support is $75,000.
If macro conditions improve, Bitcoin could aim for the $85,000-$87,000 range, where its 200-day SMA and EMA converge. Reclaiming this zone is crucial to confirm bullish momentum, with $88,000 as the next target.
