- U.S. Markets
U.S. equity markets are attempting a rebound, with the S&P 500 recovering toward the $6,590 level, up 1.15% yesterday after recent sharp declines. The move comes after President Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iranian infrastructure, which briefly eased geopolitical concerns and triggered a short-covering rally. However, the broader backdrop remains fragile, with volatility still elevated and sentiment highly dependent on headline risk.
The core issue remains the same. Higher oil prices lead the market to fear inflation, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold and financial conditions tight. Markets are increasingly pricing this war as a prolonged energy shock rather than a temporary event. This keeps upward pressure on yields and limits risk appetite, especially as growth expectations begin to soften. From a positioning perspective, the market is still operating in a negative gamma regime, with SpotGamma indicating a wide negative gamma range between $6,000 and $7,000. This suggests larger intraday swings in both directions, though the bias remains skewed to the downside. A key level remains the $6,475 strike, where roughly $2.1 billion of put gamma is set to expire into month-end. With the index now trading above this level, near-term dealer flows may offer some support, but any move back below could trigger renewed selling pressure. Importantly, while short positioning is elevated, leaving room for sharp squeezes on positive headlines, the relief rally remains vulnerable. Iran has denied any meaningful progress toward de-escalation, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping supply risks intact. This suggests the recent bounce may not be sustained.
Technically, the S&P 500 attempted to reclaim its 200-day SMA at $6,624, but failed to hold above it, keeping the broader bias weak. The index is currently trading near $6,590, with immediate support seen at $6,565 (yesterday’s low), followed by a key level at $6,475. On the upside, $6,624 (200- SMA), followed by $6,700 (yesterday’s high) acts as immediate resistance. A sustained move above $6,624 would be needed to shift the bias more bullish, while failure to hold support levels could expose the index to renewed downside pressure.
- Gold & Silver
Gold is on track for its 10th consecutive daily decline as higher energy prices have raised concerns about a potential revival in inflationary pressures. Yesterday, President Trump signaled a 5-day postponement of U.S. attacks on Iran amid alleged ongoing productive negotiations, sparking a very short-lived fall in treasury yields. However, Iran flat-out denied any such progress in talks, sending the 2-year yield back up to 3.9% and the 10-year yield to 4.37%. This is weighing on the non-interest-yielding bullion. Gold has fallen over 20% from its peak of $5,595.47 prior to the outbreak of the conflict. As tensions persist, investors have begun taking profits in gold, prioritizing portfolio preservation over increasing safe-haven exposure.
That said, gold tested it 200-day SMA located at $4,076 on the day chart and rebounded to close the session at $4,407, up 331 points. The precious metal is down 0.45% today at $4,390. Despite the five-day pause announced by Trump, the outcome of any negotiations and future passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. Even existing damage to energy infrastructure will take time to rebuild. That means the threat of inflation continues to weigh on gold. However, momentum-wise, gold’s RSI has slipped into oversold territory for the first time since 2023, indicating the possibility of a short-term bounce. Gold has immediate support at around $4,266, followed by the 200-SMA support at $4,076. On the upside, it could encounter resistance at $4,500, followed by 100-SMA resistance at $4,609.
Silver has also declined in recent sessions amid fading hopes of rate cuts. Weak manufacturing data in China is posing a headwind. Additionally, higher energy prices have made it more expensive for manufacturers to run operations, forcing them to slow production, hurting industrial demand prospects of the precious metal. As a result, silver prices have fallen over 50% from their pre-war peak of nearly $122 per ounce. Silver is down 0.38% today at $68.91, with support near $63.87 and 200-SMA support around $53.56 on the day chart. It could encounter resistance at $72.50, followed by $76.65
- Crude Oil
Trump de-escalation on Monday showed oil can fall hard on relief headlines. But the ultimate post-Iran range is far less clear, because even if the fighting stops, the damage to infrastructure, shipping flows and inventories will take much longer to unwind.
Trump’s five-day pause on escalatory US strikes gave the market a preview of how much war premium is in oil prices. Brent fell about 10% to just under $100 and WTI dropped into the high $80s as traders priced the chance of talks. However, Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament Ali Nikzad said the Strait of Hormuz would not be returned to its previous state, and there would be no negotiations with Washington.
Today, oil resumed gains after a steep drop on Monday, amid concerns that other nations may be drawn into the Middle East war. WTI is up 2.1%, near 92, while Brent is up 2.3%, near 103. US allies in the Persian Gulf are inching toward contributing to the fight, with Saudi Arabia close to a decision to join the attacks. This could escalate the situation further and provide additional support to oil prices.
Th effects of rising oil prices are being felt all across the world. Chile is set to raise fuel prices as much as half, while in Asia, Japan ordered a review of its entire supply chain for oil-related products. Elsewhere, Thailand has also hiked diesel prices, China’s biggest oil refiner said it would prioritize local supplies, and the Philippines warned grounding planes due to a jet-fuel shortage was a “distinct possibility.
On the daily chart, WTI is trading below the 9 SMA; however, it still remains above the 21 SMA. RSI is around 45, indicating some momentum is building up after yesterday’s fall. On the 1-hour chart, immediate resistance is at $94, which is the 12th March breakout, followed by the 61.8 fib and 100 SMA level of $96. Immediate support is at $89, followed by yesterday’s low of $85.
On the daily chart, Brent is trading below the 9 SMA; however, it still remains above the 21 SMA. RSI is around 49, indicating momentum is building. On the 1-hour chart, immediate resistance is at the 61.8 fib level of $107, followed by yesterday’s high of $114. Support is at $100, followed by yesterday’s low of $96.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is up over 0.23% today and is currently trading at 99.40.
From a fundamental standpoint, news pertaining to the US-Iran conflict continues to dominate the headlines. Though Trump said that “I am pleased to report that over the past 2 days, very successful negotiations have taken place between the United States and Iran. I have ordered all military strikes to be postponed for 5 days.” Iran has denied any such negotiations taking place and accused Trump of trying to buy time. The key question is whether participants see this as a genuine extension that brings a deal closer, or simply a delay that prolongs uncertainty. From a data standpoint, the US PMI is expected to garner attention today. The expectation for the Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, slightly down from the previous 51.6 reading.
From a technical standpoint, the index has support at the 99-99.15 price range. Since the onset of March, this level has served as both a good resistance and support. Looking ahead into the day, given a bounce from this level, a bullish stance is expected, with targets at 99.75.
Looking at other currency pairs, USDNOK and USDSEK portray attractive setups. At the 9.8 mark, USDNOK is exhibiting price acceptance. Strong bullish RSI divergence can also be seen, supporting a bullish stance in the currency pair. Looking at USDSEK, a strong uptrend has been in place since the start of February, and the currency pair is currently forming a symmetrical triangle. A break above 9.4 brings more upside.
