Overview: U.S. stocks edged lower on Tuesday as investors prepared for the midterm elections and assessed mixed corporate earnings. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined approximately 0.40%, with the S&P 500 touching 7,527 and the Nasdaq 100 reaching 27,975.
Drivers:
- Voters head to the polls to decide control of both chambers of Congress. The outcome could influence tax and spending legislation, as well as negotiations over government funding and the debt ceiling, potentially creating additional market uncertainty.
- Apple beat revenue expectations but forecast December-quarter gross margins of 45%–46%, below the 46.9% expected by analysts, citing rising memory prices. Its shares fell around 3% after hours. Palantir also declined despite beating estimates, highlighting that strong results alone may not be enough to satisfy elevated market expectations.
- Oracle fell more than 8% after announcing $10 billion in bond sales alongside $10 billion in equity financing. Marvell’s all-stock acquisition of Lumentum also sent both stocks sharply lower. Investors are increasingly questioning how the massive AI investment cycle is being financed and whether future returns will justify the spending.
- Chip stocks led the decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling 3.4% to its lowest level since April. Continued weakness in semiconductor shares could put further pressure on the broader technology sector.
Technical:
S&P 500 (SPX)
- Resistance: 7,572, followed by 7,605.
- Support: 7,474, followed by 7,430.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
- Resistance: 28,291, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and the 9-period SMA on the four-hour chart.
- Support: 27,461, corresponding to the Fibonacci support level.
Oil fell almost 7% yesterday as the US and Iran signalled they were willing to pursue peace talks, with the Middle East war entering its ninth month. Iran’s president said the nation’s supreme leader had given his government greater authority to negotiate, while US President Donald Trump hinted that talks were progressing. On the fundamentals front, Middle East oil market metrics indicate near-term supply is outpacing demand for the first time since July. The Middle East’s Arab oil-producing nations are shipping crude at about the same rate as before the war started in February, while Iranian exports remain effectively halted. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait climbed by 10% to just over 15 million barrels a day last month.
Technically, WTI is trading at $99.2, below the $101.16–$106.13 consolidation range. On the daily timeframe, price was rejected at the descending trendline connecting the highs of $113.30, $106.96, and $105.58. Given the current structure, each rise could present a selling opportunity. A temporary bounce toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $99.95 is possible, indicating a selling opportunity. If selling pressure continues, price may test $94.43. The bearish thesis is invalidated if WTI closes above $101.21 on the daily chart.
Brent is trading at $110.56 below the $113.89 – $119.20 consolidation range. On the hourly timeframe, the price is bouncing back towards the 38.2% fib retracement level connecting the highs and lows of $119.16 and $107.37, respectively. Given the current structure, each rise could present a selling opportunity. Continued selling pressure may lead to tests of $107.37, followed by $105.62. Conversely, the bearish thesis is invalidated if it closes above $113.89 on the daily chart.
Gold and Silver
Gold declined approximately 0.9% to $3,913.62 per ounce on Tuesday, surrendering part of Monday’s rebound of 1.84%, as rising Treasury yields and renewed inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. Escalating tensions involving Iran have pushed crude oil prices higher, reinforcing concerns that energy-driven inflation could keep US monetary policy restrictive for longer. Markets are reportedly pricing in a roughly 73% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, the US midterm elections introduce additional uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy, government spending and Treasury yields. Although geopolitical instability traditionally supports safe-haven demand, gold has struggled to sustain gains as higher real yields and liquidity-driven selling offset defensive inflows. Nevertheless, resilient ETF holdings, central-bank diversification and persistent geopolitical risks continue to provide underlying support.
Silver declined approximately 3% on Tuesday, underperforming gold as rising Treasury yields, renewed inflation concerns and weaker risk appetite intensified selling pressure. The metal’s greater sensitivity to industrial activity has amplified volatility, while expectations of tighter US monetary policy continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Technically, silver is approaching an important support region around $50, which marked its previous historic high in 2011. Whether prices stabilise around this level or break decisively below it could determine the next directional move, particularly as markets assess the US midterm elections and developments in the Middle East.
Technically, gold is trading near $3,909, with the $3,880–$3,900 region emerging as an important support zone. A decisive breakdown could expose the metal to a deeper correction, while a recovery toward $4,000 would represent an important test of psychological resistance. Silver, meanwhile, is trading around $49.10, having slipped below the $50 region associated with its historic 2011 peak. Sustained weakness below this threshold would reinforce the bearish near-term bias, while reclaiming $50 would be an initial sign of stabilisation.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 473.00
22 Carat – AED 438.00
21 Carat – AED 419.75
18 Carat – AED 359.75
