- Crude Oil
Crude oil has declined sharply this year amid concerns that Trump’s import tariffs could dent economic growth and curb demand, just as OPEC+ accelerates output increases to protect market share. Oil opened the year near $74.93 and surged to $82.63 by mid-January, only to reverse course sharply, tumbling to $58.40 by April 9. A modest rebound followed, lifting prices to around $65 by late May — but that still leaves oil nearly 20% below its early-year peak.
Oil prices are steady on Monday after Trump extended the EU trade deal deadline to July 9 and held weekend talks with Iran over its nuclear program—developments that may offer only a short-lived reprieve to oil prices. However, potential new sanctions on Russian crude following fresh strikes on Ukraine threaten to unsettle markets. The focus now turns to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the cartel is expected to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, matching the increases seen in May and June, significantly above the hike of 137,000 barrels planned initially. Together, these factors may cap any significant upside in oil prices. This uncertainty is reflected in last week’s doji candlestick, which reflects market indecision.
Since breaking out on May 9, WTI has traded within a narrow range of $60.08 to $64.20. On Monday, it sits at $61.77, forming a doji-like candlestick that indicates indecision persists. Immediate support lies at $61.48, where the 9- and 21-SMAs converge on the 4-hour chart, followed by key psychological support at $60. Resistance is expected between $62.75 and $63.36, marked by mid-May highs and the 50-SMA on the daily chart.GoldThe yellow metal ended last week with a gain of almost 5% amidst Trump’s threats to impose 50% tariffs on goods from the European Union from June 1 and 25% on Apple Inc., if it does not manufacture iPhones in the US. The demand was further influenced by escalating concerns regarding America’s fiscal deficit, with the tax cut bill exacerbating the deficit and the associated Moody’s credit rating downgrade. These factors have fueled a risk-on sentiment, leading the bullion to surge by almost 27% this year. Additional factors contributing to the support of gold include ETF inflows and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves by over 1,000 metric tonnes annually for the past three years, nearly double the last decade’s average.
Technically, on the daily chart, a bullish engulfing candlestick was formed in the previous session, closing at $3356, indicating strong continued demand for the asset. In today’s session, gold slipped by 0.66% to $ 3,335 as Trump eased his tariff stance on the European Union by delaying the tariffs until July 9 to allow both sides to negotiate a deal. Nonetheless, it still continues to trade above the 9 and 21 SMA levels at $3270 and $3290, respectively. It also faces resistance at $3,366, breaking which it can resume its upward trend towards the psychological level of $3400. During the 4-hour timeframe, gold has taken support at the ascending trendline, connecting the lows of $3120, $3236, and $3305. This shows that the upward trend still holds, with $3280 being a strong and critical support level to watch closely. The ATR of 75 indicates the metal may move in the $3357 – $3282 range.
