From a fundamental standpoint, in a world where seemingly unlimited US data centre investment can no longer be taken for granted, execution of existing projects is becoming a key driver of stock returns. CoreWeave’s solid results and even stronger guidance are expected to support tech stock sentiment, which was wobbling in early trading after yet another poor session from Nvidia. CoreWeave’s strong execution claimed its 2027 capacity is “largely sold out”, and it keeps its capex high. Perhaps more importantly, the company said it sees no impact yet from a US regulatory shift. Semiconductor equipment, advanced materials and passive components are expected to cheer this news.
From a technical standpoint, as mentioned yesterday, the SPX Index broke down from the range, triggering a bearish stance yesterday. Looking ahead, the index is retesting the $7,575 resistance again. Hence, a bearish stance is suggested at the current price level. The RSI’s close near the overbought level of 70 supports the bearish stance. However, a bullish stance is suggested if it breaks the $7,575 resistance and retests that level.
Gold and Silver
Gold trades near $4,059, ticking up 0.6% after Tuesday’s near 3% slide to $4,017, but the bounce looks like a technical retracement as bears book profits and wait for the next catalyst.
Hot October CPI data and hawkish Fed comments have revived tightening expectations, with odds of a December hike now at 100%, up from 84% before the data, and a larger half-point move being discussed. Fed officials Michelle Bowman and Anna Paulson stressed that bringing down inflation remains the top priority and that more rate increases lie ahead. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal, and the near-term macro setup for gold does not look positive.
On the technical side, gold is capped below resistance at $4,068, with stronger resistance at $4,144 and then $4,193, where earlier rebounds failed. Support lies at $4,030, then $3,957, and a break below would expose $3,913 and $3,877. The bias stays bearish while price trades below $4,144.
Silver trades near $53.06, up 2.9%, but the rebound looks corrective within a broader downtrend and faces the same rate headwind as gold. Technically, silver is testing resistance near $53.10–54.05 after reclaiming its descending trendline, with the $54.05 pivot a likely cap. Support sits at $51.30, then $49.19, and a break below would expose $48.39. Rallies toward resistance offer selling opportunities while price stays below $54.05.
Crude oil saw a volatile session on Tuesday, with WTI falling about 2.9% intraday before closing 0.07% higher near $87, while Brent fell 0.40% to around $94.40 at the close. Prices have now reached levels last seen in August, with both instruments trading relatively flat during Wednesday’s Asian session.
Crude prices have been falling recently as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict have grown post the US Midterm elections. However, prices are now stabilising with some geopolitical tensions still simmering along key oil supply routes. Iran is still attacking vessels transiting through the strait, on average a couple a week. A third US aircraft carrier is en route to the Middle East. Political uncertainty has also increased in Israel, following PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s (an Iran hawk) loss of his parliamentary majority last month. Meanwhile, the threat to the region’s energy infrastructure remains. Saudi Arabia’s major East-West pipeline was attacked in the Medina area on Monday, resulting in a fire which has since been put out (according to the state-run Saudi Press Agency). The US has also conducted two limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island over the past few days. Elsewhere, Ukraine is continuing to hit Russian refineries, and Russia in turn is hitting energy and civilian infrastructure again and again. US-mediated talks between the parties are ongoing in Abu Dhabi, and the fact that more senior diplomats are attending than in previous rounds has been interpreted as a sign of greater willingness to talk about the substance of the issue after months of deadlock.
Technically, WTI printed a dragonfly doji on the daily chart, which suggests a bullish short-term market structure. This is further validated by prices finding support at the 200-day EMA near $86.92, a key level to watch. Moreover, the 9-period RSI on the daily is in oversold territory, with a bullish divergence compared to the 4th November lows. A similar structure can also be seen in Brent; however, the 200-day EMA near $95.90 needs to be cleared before seeing further upside potential.
The dollar index rose about 0.5% on Tuesday to a near two-week high after a hotter-than-expected October CPI report and hawkish comments from Fed officials. This morning, at the time of writing, it is steady at around 102.22.
October CPI rose 0.4% on the month against expectations of 0.3%, and core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, the third straight month of 0.3% core readings. Before the release, Fed Governor Waller said a half-point hike should be considered in December if core came in around 0.3% or higher. After the data, Dallas Fed President Logan said she sees a need for two more quarter-point increases. Markets now price in around an 87.3% chance of a Fed hike on 9 December, and the chance of a half-point move rose to about 12.7% from close to zero. The dollar held its gains against most majors. USD/JPY is at around 158.8, just below 159, and EUR/USD is struggling around 1.1150 after slipping below 1.12 on Tuesday. Oil has eased on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy, which is the main offset to the hawkish Fed story.
The next decision is the Fed meeting on 9 December. November CPI is not due until 10 December, one day after the meeting, so October’s report is the last CPI the Fed sees before it decides. Near-term focus now turns to PPI on Friday, further Fed speakers and PCE later this month. More hawkish commentary would likely keep the dollar supported, while any sign the Fed is leaning toward a quarter-point rather than a half-point move could trim gains.
Technically, the DXY is holding just below Friday’s high after Tuesday’s rally above 102, and remains above its 9- and 21-day moving averages, hence supporting a bullish stance in DXY. First resistance is Friday’s high of 102.35, followed by 102.49. On the downside, the 9- and 21-day SMAs at around 101.95 are the first support. A break below could push the DXY toward 101.50, the lower end of the box it has traded in since 1 October.
