US Markets
Drivers
* The S&P 500 is slightly higher at 7,713, with equities showing resilience despite rising rate-hike expectations following strong NFP data and elevated crude oil prices.
* Fresh optimism around OpenAI’s GPT-6 and claims that AGI has arrived are expected to inject renewed momentum into the AI trade.
* The continued race between US and Chinese technology companies to develop increasingly advanced AI models is driving substantial investment in data centres, semiconductors, and AI talent.
* The accelerating AI investment cycle is expected to provide a bullish backdrop for AI hardware and semiconductor companies this week.
* US markets are closed today for Labour Day.
Technicals
* The S&P 500 remains within a bull flag formation, maintaining a bullish outlook for the days ahead.
* The nearest hourly support is located at 7,690–7,700, supporting the short-term bullish bias.
* The 9-day EMA at 7,696 provides additional support and reinforces the bullish setup.
* A break below the 7,690 support zone could open the way toward 7,660.
* The next major resistance level is at 7,760.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices were slightly weaker on Friday, with WTI trading in a volatile session before closing 0.55% lower, while Brent ended relatively flat. However, for the week, WTI closed about 9.18% higher, while Brent jumped 7.99%. During the Asian session on Monday, WTI jumped 0.74%, and Brent jumped about 1%, with trading volumes expected to remain muted as the US market observes the Labour Day Holiday.
Tensions in the Middle East resurfaced with strikes exchanged between the US and Iran on vessels sailing in the Strait of Hormuz. US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off the coast of Kharg Island, near Iran’s key oil export hub, while Iran said it hit three US-linked ships in retaliation for American attacks on Iranian tankers. This marked a major escalation in the six-month war and pushed oil prices higher on Monday. Additionally, Hedge funds turned the most bullish on Brent crude since May as fighting between the US and Iran heightened concerns about disruptions to energy flows. Money managers increased their net-bullish positions on the global benchmark by 37,837 to 261,435 in the week ending Sept. 1, the highest in just over three months. Lastly, this weekend saw an OPEC+ meeting, which ended with the group keeping its oil output policy unchanged for October, as it needs to agree on new quotas before deciding its next output steps, indicating uncertainty for oil prices.
From a technical perspective, WTI is approaching the $94.40 resistance level from the highs of 23rd July, a break above which could mean further upside, as momentum remains firmly bullish with RSI above 50 but not yet in oversold territory on the daily. With a recent breakout from a downward-sloping trendline connecting the highs of 7th April, 30th April, 18th May, 23rd July and 21st August, WTI’s market structure remains tilted towards the upside. Brent remains in a similar market structure with a potential resistance near 102.20.
Gold and Silver
Gold is holding firm near $4,400 in early trading today, as renewed ETF inflows and fading momentum in the US dollar continue to support the precious metal. The metal edged lower on Friday after NFP data was released, but the broader trend remains constructive, with physical demand helping offset pressure from elevated real yields.
Recent flows have been encouraging, with the largest physically backed gold and silver ETFs attracting around $7.5 billion in combined net inflows since early August. This renewed investor interest could provide a stronger price floor and support further upside if momentum continues.
However, stronger-than-expected US jobs data, with NFP rising by 162K in August versus expectations of 56K, has increased expectations of a potentially hawkish Fed. This remains a near-term headwind for gold. Investors will now focus on this week’s PPI and CPI data for further clues on the Fed’s rate path. A softer inflation reading could weaken the dollar and support bullion.
Technically, gold retains a moderately bullish bias above $4,400 with the recent recovery supported by improving flows and softer dollar momentum. The metal is finding support between $4,385-$4,395 on an ascending trendline formed by joining the lows of Sep 2 and Sep 4 on its hourly chart. A sustained move above $4,430 could open the path toward $4,500, while any pullbacks are likely to attract buying interest. Silver is trading near $65.80 and may find support near $65.20, while resistance is seen around $66.50, followed by $67.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows:
24K: AED 530.00
22K: AED 490.75
21K: AED 470.50
18K: AED 403.25
