U.S. equity futures advanced on Monday as Wall Street looked to begin June on a strong footing after ending May at record highs. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is up 0.38%, while the Nasdaq 100 gains 0.67%.
The major averages wrapped up a strong month, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence. The S&P 500 gained 5.15% in May, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 10.49%, marking one of its strongest monthly performances in recent years. Sentiment received an additional boost on Friday after the U.S. and Iran reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, reducing concerns over a wider regional conflict and helping push equities to fresh records.
Corporate earnings have also remained a key pillar of support for the rally. With first-quarter reporting season largely complete, results have comfortably exceeded expectations. According to FactSet, roughly 85% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above analyst estimates, well above the five-year average of 78%. Companies have beaten profit forecasts by an aggregate 16.7%, more than double the historical average surprise of 7.3%.
The AI theme continues to dominate market leadership. Semiconductor and tech stocks led the way through May, which helped drive Nasdaq’s outperformance. Investors remain focused on companies tied to AI infrastructure spending. Even though there are still worries about economic growth and inflation, optimism around earnings and strong corporate profits is keeping those concerns in check. Investors will be focused on PMI report today, and NFP report on Friday.
On the hourly timeframe, the SPX continues to coil within a wedge structure. Price is currently hovering near the upper boundary of the wedge, with immediate resistance seen at the wedge top around $7,637. A sustained move above this level, if accompanied by strong volume, could open the door for a momentum-driven push higher. On the downside, today’s low at $7,585 serves as the first support. As long as the price holds above that, the short-term bullish bias stays intact. However, if the price falls below this, the index might test the second support at $7,572, which is the last session’s lows.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded with a softer tone on Monday, hovering near the 99.00 region after posting losses last week, as improving risk sentiment and optimism around U.S.–Iran negotiations continued to weigh on safe-haven demand for the greenback. Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a temporary easing in Middle East tensions, particularly following reports surrounding discussions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the current ceasefire framework. This has helped support risk-sensitive assets while limiting upside momentum in the dollar.
At the same time, traders remain cautious ahead of a heavy week of macroeconomic data and central bank commentary. Focus now shifts toward the upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment data, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which are expected to provide clearer direction on the strength of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Markets currently expect payroll growth to slow compared to previous months, while unemployment is projected to remain around 4.3%.
Although some Federal Reserve officials continue to maintain a balanced tone regarding future policy decisions, improving global risk appetite and easing oil prices are reducing immediate defensive demand for the dollar. Brent crude stabilising below recent highs has also helped ease inflation concerns tied to geopolitical disruptions.
From a technical perspective, the near-term structure remains mildly bearish. The 98.90 zone remains a major support level, having acted as an important floor since April last year, followed by Friday’s low near 98.75. On the upside, today’s high around 99.08 acts as immediate resistance, followed by Friday’s high near 99.18. Unless the DXY manages to reclaim these resistance levels, short-term momentum is likely to remain tilted to the downside.
EUR/USD remained supported near recent highs, benefiting from the broader weakness in the dollar and improving investor sentiment. The pair continues to trade with a bullish bias as long as support levels remain intact. Technically, immediate resistance is seen near 1.1660 (today’s high), followed by the stronger resistance zone near 1.1680 (Friday’s high). On the downside, initial support is placed near 1.1640, while Friday’s low near 1.1620 acts as the next key support area. A sustained hold above these support levels keeps the near-term structure constructive for EUR/USD.
Gold & Silver
Silver, however, is showing relative resilience, currently trading 0.55% higher at $75.71, outperforming gold after closing near $75.29 in the previous session. The metal is finding support from optimism surrounding industrial demand linked to clean energy, electrification and technology sectors, alongside persistent supply tightness concerns. However, analysts continue to warn that silver’s strong industrial exposure makes it significantly more sensitive to changes in global growth expectations and macroeconomic sentiment than gold. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in oil markets could therefore create additional volatility for the metal going forward.
Technically, Gold’s immediate support is now placed at $4,500, a key short-term support zone followed by the next downside target near $4,485. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at today’s session high around $4,540, while stronger resistance is positioned near the $4,560 zone. Silver remains technically constructive, with immediate support placed near $70.25, followed by stronger support around $67 On the higher side, resistance is positioned near the $78 mark, with a sustained break above this level potentially opening the path toward further upside.
Crude Oil
After two consecutive weekly declines that brought oil close to a six-week low, a gradual rebound is taking place on Monday amid uncertainty pertaining to a U.S.-Iran deal. While talks are underway, both countries are seeking changes to the draft agreement with the view of extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz further. While there is hope for a more concrete peace agreement down the line, Brent remains higher by over a quarter since the initial outbreak of the conflict. Oil prices are now trading in accordance with the incoming statements from both countries as negotiations are unfolding. On Friday, President Trump conducted a meeting in the Situation Room where he indicated the possibility of extending the ongoing truce with Iran by 60 days. However, the U.S. demands that Iran surrender its nuclear program and restore crude oil flows through the Strait to pre-war levels, which is a point of contention for Iran, resulting in uncertainty. In the interim, Israel has ramped up attacks on Lebanon.
The recent trend exhibited by oil is towards the downside. However, since concrete signs of a U.S.-Iran deal remain elusive so far, Brent is up 1.98% at $97.12 for the day while WTI is up 2.26% at $92.43. Nonetheless, Brent is trading below all key moving averages on the day chart. It has immediate support around $93.71, characterized by the 21-SMA on the weekly chart and roughly aligning with last week’s low at $93.33. The daily 5-period RSI is at 36.32, which signals that Brent could potentially inch up to $98, and if it is able to breach this level, then it could climb further up to $102.67. WTI could rebound to $95, where it currently faces 9-SMA resistance on the day chart (coinciding with the 50-EMA as well). It would need to surpass this level for further upside. Meanwhile, it has a strong support zone between $81-$86, which arrested recent declines in both March and April.
