Summary: The USD is all over the map today on a story that Trump will dial back his broad-based approach on tariffs, which Trump later specifically denied. Chart: USDCNH The critical exchange rate for the world this year may be USDCNH as we await how the US-China relationship takes shape in the
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Gold and silver investors increasingly turn defensive ahead of year-end as they seek to protect and lock in gains following a very strong year. This year has seen gold’s record-breaking rally deliver the best annual return since 2010, while silver has managed to keep up with gold, reaching a 12-year high during the October run-up […]
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut this week, reducing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.50%. With the Fed’s moves becoming more data-driven, investors will pay close attention to the tone of Chair Powell’s post-meeting remarks and the updated Summary of Economic Projections […]
Saxo, the leader in online trading and investment, announced its annual Outrageous Predictions for 2025 today. Our annual Outrageous Predictions is a series of events that, while highly unlikely, could just happen. If they did, they would send shockwaves across financial markets. They are not our official forecast but are meant to spark discussions and challenge […]
The US election is over, and it has proved that the pollsters once again were disastrously wrong. The mid-to-late October betting odds predicting a strong Trump victory are remarkably right. The result is a shock as many, including this author, were misled by sudden changes in Harris’ winning odds just ahead of the election. And […]
This week: The many ways the election could yet shock markets. The inexorable tightening in the US election polls has continued as Harris’ lead versus Trump has narrowed to the narrowest margin since early August. Many believe from the faulty polling in the 2016 and 2020 elections that the polls always underestimate Trump’s chance of […]
Commodities: In the latest reporting week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rallied 1.8%, thereby fully recouping losses in the previous week. All sectors except softs saw higher prices, led by precious metals, where all metals saw demand amid haven demand ahead of the US elections, with silver jumping more than 10% after breaking resistance-now-support at USD […]
Gold’s record-breaking rally continues, and following another shallow mid-month correction that saw buyers return ahead of USD 2,600, spot bullion has returned to trade just below the USD 2,685 record reached last month. The precious metal market has witnessed an unprecedented strong uptrend this past year, with gold and silver both trading up close to […]
The polls have shown further modest tightening for the presidential race, with Harris shrinking lead in the polls pointing to higher odds of a Trump win. Polls in the key seven battleground states are impossibly close and we seem almost guaranteed a nail-biting Election Night on November 5th. This week, we look at the two […]
The US rate cut cycle has begun As we enter the final quarter of 2024, Saxo Bank’s strategy team highlights a mix of cautious optimism and market risks in its latest quarterly outlook. While inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle take centre stage, Saxo warns of ongoing challenges, such as fiscal imbalances and […]
Crude oil’s failed attempt to join the China stimulus-led rally seen among other commodities sectors this past week highlights a market where the focus has switched away from an improved demand outlook to the prospect of additional supply hitting the market at a time when it is not needed. Having failed earlier in the week […]
Gold’s record-breaking rally continues, with spot bullion now approaching USD 2,600 per troy ounce, reflecting a year-to-date gain of over 25%. This surge means a standard 400-troy-ounce gold bar (around 12.4 kilograms or 27.4 pounds), commonly traded internationally and used by central banks, now costs over USD 1 million, up from USD 725,000 last October. […]
With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates, it’s time to consider how your portfolio is positioned for this shift. Rate cuts typically bring about significant changes in market behaviour, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a flexible way to adjust your portfolio accordingly. Let’s look at the sectors and ETFs that could be considered to […]
Commodities: Gold prices reached new all-time highs, increasing by 0.77% to close at $2,577.70. Silver also saw a significant rise, climbing 2.81% to $30.72, driven by a declining dollar and lower Treasury yields ahead of the FOMC policy meeting next Wednesday, where rate cuts are widely anticipated. Over the week, gold surged more than 3.5%, […]
Gold’s recent strong performance, with a 20% rise year-to-date and a high of USD 2,531.75 in August, has been driven by a combination of factors that have made it an attractive investment. There are several reasons that the post-election environment could continue to support the gold price, which has handily outperformed the S&P 500 index […]
The stakes in US elections have risen sharply since the shock 2016 election result that saw Trump take the White House. This is especially true when US equities are more dominant than ever, comprising a staggering 65% weight, for example, in the MSCI’s ACWI Index. This global stock index includes both developed and emerging markets, […]
Gold continues to trade cautiously around USD 2500, and in doing so, is trying to break the cycle of negative September returns, a seasonal trend which has seen gold trade lower in all but one of the last ten Septembers. Having suffered a setback to, but not through, support at USD 2470, the yellow metal […]
– John Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist This week: The status of the economy in focus through Friday job numbers Polls have tightened a bit again, and thus back in Trump’s favour as we can see from the shift in the polling and betting odds. Stock markets saw a continued recovery in sentiment after the brief […]
Commodities The commodities sector is heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, and throughout August the sector has been supported by a combination of a softer dollar, lower Treasury yields, and expectations the US Federal Reserve will announce the first of several cuts at the 18 September FOMC meeting. Traders and analysts watching US economic […]
During 2024, the Saxo Bank Group rolled out a new competitive pricing structure that lowers costs for clients as well as improvements to the client experience, leading to a record number of clients and client assets, with over 1.2 million end clients and USD 122 billion in client assets as of 30 June 2024. Volatility […]