US Markets
Chip companies rallied in Monday trading, helping stocks rebound after the worst week for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since the tariff turmoil of April 2025. The Nasdaq 100 closed 1.2% higher, gaining the most since late September, while the S&P 500 Index rose 0.4%. Semiconductor stocks rose, with the benchmark Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advancing 1.6%, snapping an eight-day losing streak, its longest in 18 years. Investors are expected to prepare to add risk to their portfolios as a months-long pullback in the equity markets looks like it’s near to an end.
Looking at stocks, CoreWeave Inc fell 0.4%, even after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy, highlighting the company’s revenue potential and tight supply. Shares had plunged last week as the company’s debt tumbled to levels that typically indicate distress, spurring anxiety about the sustainability of the AI rally. SpaceX rose 1% after Elon Musk pledged to gift a share to each American child, posting the move shortly after AI competitor Anthropic PBC said it would set aside a portion of its shares for the public benefit. Tesla Inc. added 3.8%; there has been recent speculation about a merger between the car company and SpaceX. Amazon.com Inc. shares jumped 5% after Morgan Stanley named the e-commerce and cloud-computing company a top pick, flagging a number of strong growth drivers, including Amazon Web Services.
United Airlines is due to post after the bell, while General Motors is set to report before the open. Housing starts and pending home sales figures are also scheduled for release Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 index seems to be giving up some of yesterday’s gains and presents a cautiously bullish bias. Daily RSI is near 40, which indicates that momentum is building but slowly. On the 1-hour chart, key support remains near current levels of $7,686. A fall below this level can push prices to the 16th October low of $7,635. On the upside, immediate target is at $7,739 (200 EMA), followed by $7,764 which was the 16th October high.
US Dollar Index
The dollar index trades near 101.78, down 0.2% in today’s session as 2-year Treasury yields fell and investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. However, the broader outlook still favours the US dollar. September inflation data came in hotter than expected, supporting the case for future tightening. According to the CME Fedwatch, the markets are pricing in roughly an 84–88% chance of rates staying unchanged, though a hike remains fully priced for December, followed by nearly two more next year. On the geopolitical front, violent protests across France and other European countries are driving the euro weakness and boosting the greenback. Moreover, escalating Russia-Ukraine hostilities and ongoing clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, alongside continued tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, are reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. The US’s energy self-sufficiency means elevated oil prices from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe benefit the dollar directly, unlike oil-importing peers.
Technically, it is trading at 101.78. On the daily timeframe, the index has recently broken above resistance at 101.6 and is nearing a retest of that level. It is also holding above the 50-day SMA at 100.4. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 5-period RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting a possible upward bounce. A Fibonacci retracement from the high of 102.95 to the recent low of 101.60 suggests price could retrace to the 50% level at 102.27, followed by the 61.8% level at 102.43. This roughly coincides with the gap fill above and could make 102.51 a strong resistance level or a potential target to closely track. Conversely, a break below support at 101.6 may signal bearishness for the index.
EUR/USD is trading near 1.228. On the 4-hour chart, the 5-period RSI is trending lower, pointing to fading momentum. Given the dollar’s broader strength, a sell-on-rise approach is favoured. A break below immediate support at 1.12 would signal further bearishness. This level also aligns with the 50% retracement from the 1.11 low to the 1.13 high. Below 1.12, the next support is at 1.11. Conversely, a break above resistance at 1.13 would be bullish for the pair.
Crude Oil
Brent is trading near five-month highs as investors weigh the risk of further tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz against a steady recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports. A recent escalation in attacks along the critical shipping route has supported prices, although improving regional supply flows have limited further gains. Iraq, particularly, has reported crude exports exceeding 3.4 mbpd so far this month, bringing shipments close to pre-war levels as steep discounts to regional benchmarks attract buyers. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is moving to authorize the sale of sanctioned oil tankers, allowing them to legally transport crude in an effort to ease shipping constraints and elevated freight costs. The global shadow fleet is estimated to comprise approximately 1,600 vessels.
Against this backdrop, while geopolitical risks continue to favour the upside, Brent has struggled to break above the $113 level, which coincides with the upper boundary of an ascending channel and serves as immediate resistance. A sustained breakout could open the door for a move towards $116.86, corresponding to the 1.618% trend-based Fibonacci extension drawn from the October 7 low to the October 12 high and the October 15 low. Conversely, failure to clear resistance could see prices retreat towards $109.70, where the channel’s midpoint converges with the 20-period EMA on the four-hour chart, providing a potential near-term support zone. Meanwhile, WTI is hovering around $100.99. Sustained moves above recent highs of $101.55 could potentially open the door for a move towards $103.06, followed by next resistance around $105.38, while corrective dips could find support near $98.52.
Gold & Silver
Precious metals remained relatively flat on Monday, with gold down 0.59% and silver up 0.23%. The difference between the two metals was again evident during the Asian session on Tuesday, with gold down 0.20% and silver up 0.63%.
Gold has been trading in a tight range recently, with elevated oil prices adding pressure, fueling inflation concerns and keeping US Treasury yields elevated, while traders keep their eyes on macroeconomic data to gauge the Fed’s path for further interest rate hikes. The subsequent rise in the US dollar also adds pressure to the bullion. Despite these factors, the yellow metal has remained resilient above the $ 4,100 mark so far in October after a more than 6% decline last month. One of the primary drivers of gold’s strength is investment demand, as shown by surging holdings in global gold ETFs. Total known gold ETF holdings, according to Bloomberg, reached a 4-year high of 101.368 million ounces as of today, up 5.37% from the YTD low of 96.2 million ounces on 20th July. ETFs added 62,700 troy ounces of gold to their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year’s net purchases to 2.25 million ounces. Meanwhile, ETFs also added 5.12 million troy ounces of silver in the last trading session, bringing this year’s net sales to 56.7 million ounces. This marked the third straight day of gains, the longest winning streak since Sept. 10, suggesting strong investment demand for both precious metals amid a price dip.
Technically, Gold prices remain rangebound between the $4070-$4220 levels this month, so a break on either side will be needed before a strong medium-term direction can be established. The $4080 level could provide near-term support from a trendline connecting the lows of 30th June, 17th July, 7th October, and 14th October on the daily chart. Silver seems to be rebounding from a horizontal support from the lows of 24th June, 17th July, and 14th October, with 9-period RSI recovering from oversold territory, suggesting a market structure tilted towards the upside in the immediate term.
