U.S. Markets
U.S. equities remain supported after July CPI broadly matched expectations, easing concerns around inflation and near-term Fed policy. The S&P 500 closed 0.2% higher yesterday and is trading near $7,756 (+0.15%) today, while the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.56% and is up 0.28% in early trading today.
July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, with both annual measures moderating slightly from June. The softer inflation reading has reduced expectations for a September rate hike, with CME FedWatch showing the probability near 33%. However, elevated oil prices and persistent geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain key risks to the inflation outlook. Attention now shifts to July PPI, due today, with economists expecting a 0.2% MoM increase, followed by retail sales on Friday. These releases will provide further clues on inflation and consumer resilience.
Technology remains mixed. CoreWeave surged following earnings, while Nebius jumped over 34% after reporting a 454% revenue increase. In contrast, Cerebras fell more than 17% after market close, while Cisco and Coherent also declined post-results, highlighting increasing selectivity within AI and technology stocks. Earnings to watch out for today include Ondas, Applied Materials, Intuitive Machines and Tapestry.
Overall, the near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, supported by softer inflation, but oil, geopolitics and upcoming PPI data could drive volatility. Technically, the index is trading above all key MAs with initial resistance at $7,775, followed by the all-time high of $7,795. A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for further gains. Immediate support lies at $7,720, followed by $7,700, making this an attractive zone for long entries on any pullback.
Gold & Silver
Gold and silver are trading lower today, with gold down 0.64% at $4,380 and silver declining 0.75% to $64.83 at the time of writing. The pullback comes as investors locked in profits following the sharp rally seen over recent sessions.
US consumer prices rose just 0.1% in July, while last week’s jobs report pointed to a softer labour market, together easing concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten policy further in September. That remains supportive for non-yielding assets such as gold. The recent rally appears to have left both metals to near-term consolidation.
The broader outlook remains constructive, especially if upcoming US data continue to point toward softer growth and contained inflation. This would keep Fed rate-hike expectations under control. The outlook however remains sensitive to renewed strength in the dollar and yields.
Technically, Gold is trading within a descending channel on the hourly chart after failing to hold support from its ascending trendline. Immediate support is seen at the lower boundary of the channel near 4,368, while 4,434 remains a key resistance level. A break and hold above this barrier would reassert the bullish momentum. Silver has also slipped below its ascending trendline support and is now consolidating after rallying roughly 12% since the start of August. Initial support is located at 64.41, with stronger support lower down at 62.98. On the upside, 66.31, the day’s high, remains the key resistance level, with a move above it likely to revive bullish momentum.
Crude Oil
Oil prices opened higher on renewed concerns about global supply tightness despite a large U.S. crude inventory build. Brent gained 0.4% at $91.32/bbl, while WTI is up 0.6% to $83.20/bbl, as investors look beyond near-term inventory data and focus on increasingly supportive demand and supply dynamics.
The key development remains China’s return to the crude market. During the recent Middle East disruptions, including the ongoing Hormuz-related shipping constraints, Chinese refiners relied heavily on inventories rather than competing for available barrels. That inventory cushion is now being depleted rapidly. Shandong crude stocks reportedly fell by 35 million barrels in July, the largest monthly draw since Energy Aspects began tracking the data in 2016, while refinery throughput is expected to rise more than 6% in August as seasonal maintenance concludes.
This dynamic matters because China’s willingness to draw down inventories, rather than buy on the open market, kept it from competing for barrels during the Hormuz disruption, cushioning what would otherwise have been a sharper physical-market tightening. As Chinese refiners now move to rebuild depleted stocks, alongside rising throughput, the market is likely to see a return of active buying by refiners, with independent Chinese refiners expected to add more discounted Iranian crude to their inventories. Chinese imports are expected to rebound in Q4, supporting the oil price.
Additionally, the EIA released its latest report, showing a 17.4 million-barrel addition to U.S. crude oil inventories, but the crude price reaction implies that investors discounted the inventory build. The report details show that the reason for the large build is not a lack of end-user demand, but a pause in exports. Crude oil imports rose by about 1.1 million barrels a day, while exports fell by roughly 627,000 barrels a day, resulting in a concentrated inventory build at the coast. At the same time, many large import cargoes from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Canada arrived at once, while the EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production was almost unchanged at 13.8 million barrels a day.
Brent is in a bullish pattern on the 4-hour chart, ranging between 90.4 and 92.5. The first resistance is at 92.6 with 93.9 as major resistance, and 90.0 as the first level of support. RSI is at 57.5, implying positive but decreasing momentum. As long as Brent holds the higher-low support zone, the bullish trend is in place, but a 4-hourly close below 90.8 would bring a correction to 88.5.
WTI continues to trade above the key higher-low support level at 82.0, keeping the uptrend intact. The first resistance level is 84.1, followed by the recent swing high at 85.7. RSI is at 56.9, which is constructive, but momentum has flattened, implying that the market is consolidating rather than preparing for an upward breakout. A sustained 4-hourly close above 84.1 would confirm the resumption of the bullish trend.
US Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.17% on Wednesday, while EUR/USD fell by the same amount in yesterday’s session. Thursday’s Asian session is seeing the dollar index and the EUR/USD pair trading flat.
The US Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4% YoY in July, compared to 3.5% in the last month, while core CPI increased 2.5% YoY versus 2.6% previously, both coming in line with expectations. The markets are now expecting even lower odds of a rate hike, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing almost 64% odds of a rate hold at the September meeting, up from 51.6% a day ago and 45% a week ago. Meanwhile, the continued tensions between the US and Iran are adding towards the geopolitical risk premium, supporting the US dollar’s safe-haven status and increasing inflows. Both countries remain in a deadlock over efforts towards a permanent de-escalation in the Middle East.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar index seems to be finding support near an upward-sloping trendline connecting the lows of 27th Jan, 6th May, 3rd August, and 7th August. The index has risen after respecting the 200-day EMA near 99.63, which coincides with the trendline and provides significant near-term support, supporting a bullish stance. On the flip side, the EUR/USD pair seems to be taking the 200-day EMA resistance near 1.5565 and falling, coinciding with a downward-sloping trendline connecting the highs of 17th April, 12th May, and 7th August.
