- U.S. Markets
The SPX fell by 0.4% yesterday for the third consecutive session. The muted movement reflects the market waiting for key economic data this week to gauge the health of the economy.
Yesterday, we saw release of economic data. The economy saw 105,000 jobs being shed in October and unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in October, up from 4.4% in September and the highest since September 2021. However, it is widely believed that the unemployment data is skewed due to government shutdown. The market continues to remain on the edge as now we await CPI November data due on Thursday to understand the overall picture of the economy. According to CME FedWatch there is around 24% chance rate cut in January. The markets and the Fed will need more data to assess the possibility of rate cuts. However, Powell has maintained a cautious stance that there will be one rate cut in 2026. This maybe unlikely as his term is due in Feb 2026 and Trump might elect a much more dovish Fed Chair.
On a technical level, SPX has taken support from its 100-day SMA at $6765, and has rebounded from there and is currently trading at $6790. SPX may potentially face its next resistance at $6845 which coincides with the 9-day SMA. A break above this level will lead to further bullish momentum at $6901. On the four-hour chart SPX is consolidating between $6763 and $6901. We anticipate that SPX will bounce back as it is currently taking support at the lowest point of the consolidating pattern. However, a break below $6763 can lead to further downside at $6694.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to its lowest levels in more than two months, to 97.87, on Tuesday, before closing at 98.21. Today in the Asian session, it is trading around 98.40 (+0.2%).
According to delayed U.S. labor market reports, November payrolls showed a positive surprise, but October figures declined sharply. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to its highest since 2021, to 4.6%. Even though the index has shown a modest rebound in the Asian session today, these less reassuring figures underpin near-term softness in the dollar.
The CME FedWatch tool continues to display a 75% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in the upcoming FOMC meeting, largely unchanged from before the data release, lending temporary support to the dollar.
EURUSD climbed to its highest level since October, suggesting near-term dollar weakness as other central banks adopt comparatively firmer policy stances. Meanwhile, the yen firmed ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision as markets watched for hints of further tightening beyond the priced-in hike, supporting the index.
Technically, DXY remains weak below key moving averages, with resistance at 9 day SMA at 98.62. Support for the greenback is seen at 98.87, yesterday’s low. Resistance for the EURUSD pair lies at yesterday’s high of 1.180, while support is at 9 day SMA at 1.169.
- Crude Oil
WTI climbed back above $56, while Brent tested $59.50, gaining 2.00% and 1.70%, respectively.
The sudden reversal came as President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned vessels linked to Venezuela, which augmented concerns over supply-related risk. Like the initially short-lived price spike following the Iran bombing earlier this year, this move appears to lack underlying structural significance and instead reflects short-term risk adjustments.
The baseline market outlook remains structurally bearish. Production increases from OPEC+ members and non-OPEC producers are exerting downward pressure on prices. Combined with concurrent weakening demand, this further depresses prospects for a sustained price advance.
From a technical standpoint, both benchmarks are still trading well below their 9-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, emphasizing the strong bearish trend; yet the short-term outlook is turning positive due to supportive geopolitical developments.
Brent, meanwhile, finds support between $58.43–$59.01, marking recent intraday lows, with major support sitting in the $57.60–$58.00 region. While resistance remains near the psychological level of $60.
WTI’s immediate support currently sits at $55.50, followed by a stronger support level of $55.00. A decisive breach below the latter could open the door to the $53.50–$54.00 zone. Resistance levels can be seen near the $56.60–$57.00 range.
On momentum indicators, the 14-day RSI for both benchmarks is hovering near 38, signalling continued bearish pressure but showing a rebound from yesterday’s oversold territory around 31.
- Gold and Silver
Gold and Silver continued their bullish move on Wednesday, as yesterday’s U.S. jobs data showed a sign of weakening labor market.
Gold is up 0.44% while silver is up 3.14%, crossing the $65 mark for the first time and making a new all time high of $66.5.
According to official labor statistics, the unemployment rate for November shot up to 4.6% versus a forecast of 4.4%. This increased expectations for additional Fed rate cuts in 2026, supporting non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Investors are now looking forward to November’s CPI data on Thursday and PCE data on Friday.
From a technical perspective, Gold is trading above 9 SMA and 21 SMA on the daily chart. RSI rose from yesterday’s level and is now close to 70.8. This indicates strong bullish momentum building up for gold. Immediate support is at 100 SMA level of $4,289 on the 1-hour chart. Next support is at $4,271, followed by $4,256, which was the 11th December breakout level. Immediate resistance is seen at $4,354, followed by all time high of $4,381.
Silver is also trading above the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart. RSI is at 76 which indicates strong ongoing bullish momentum for silver. Immediate support is at the previous all time high level of $64.65, followed by 50 SMA level of $63.7. Resistance is seen at the new record high level of $66.5. A break above this level can push prices to new highs and strengthen the bullish move.
