U.S. Markets
U.S. stocks traded lower on Thursday, as the post-election rally gave way to renewed weakness in chip stocks.
S&P 500 were down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.17%. On Wednesday, as Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress and oil prices tumbled. The S&P 500 added 1.66% to 7,704, while the Nasdaq 100 gained a more modest 0.90% to 28,516.
Investors rotated out of AI-linked stocks into consumer names. Markets are betting that a Democratic Congress could help bring an end to the Iran war and ease tariffs, but also slow the AI data centre buildout. Micron and SanDisk fell 7% and nearly 8%, respectively, while Nvidia lost 3%.
Qualcomm fell 6.5% despite beating earnings estimates, as its handset revenue missed expectations and the company warned of rising costs across the chipmaking supply chain. Â In contrast, AppLovin surged almost 23% after better-than-expected results and guidance. Airbnb, Cloudflare and ConocoPhillips report today. Investors will also watch weekly jobless claims and Friday’s October jobs report.
SPX staged a V-shaped rebound from its election-night low near 7,460, recovering above its 100-day moving average.
However, the bounce stalled at 7,700–7,720, the late-October breakdown level that now acts as resistance, and the broader pattern of lower highs remains intact. Resistance stands at 7,720, followed by 7,750 and 7,780. Support lies at 7,650, followed by 7,600.
The Nasdaq 100 remains weaker and in correction territory, more than 10% below its October 6 record. After bouncing from its election-night low near 27,500 to 28,750, the index is rolling over again as chip stocks come under renewed pressure. Resistance is at 28,630. Support lies at 28,000, near the 200-day moving average, followed by 27,800.
Gold and Silver
Gold skyrocketed 3.36% in yesterday’s session and is up 1.64% today at $4,128. This stellar jump is attributable to a decline in treasury yields and the dollar as Democrats secured victories across the House of Representatives and the Senate. The prospect of Democrats curbing tax cuts and fiscal expansion by curtailing government spending, borrowing and treasury issuance is lending a leg up to gold. The attention will now shift to tomorrow’s NFP print, as it could shape the Fed’s trajectory moving forward. Nonetheless, the central bank is expected to tighten interest rates in December to rein in inflationary pressures. As per the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a hike stand at 82.7% in December. The precious metal has support around $4,093, with next support lying around $4,072, roughly aligning with the late October peak. Corrective dips could likely be seen as an opportunity to accumulate, with resistance around $4,150 and $4,190.
Silver jumped 4.96% yesterday and is up another 0.67% at present around $52.61. It has sustained the gradual rebound from the $48.42 support level, which roughly marked the 2011 highs. It could encounter initial resistance around $55.47, which marks the mid-July lows. A break above this level could pave the way for a move towards $58.98. The outlook for silver remains mixed, with expectations of tighter monetary policy posing a risk to its recent rebound, even as persistent supply shortages provide a degree of support. The Silver Institute forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce market shortfall in 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits and bringing cumulative inventory depletion since 2021 to 762 million ounces. Meanwhile, renewed investor appetite is expected to lift physical bar and coin demand by 18%, helping cushion the impact of a projected 3% contraction in industrial consumption.
Crude Oil
Oil dropped almost 10% in yesterday’s session as investors bet that a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections could accelerate efforts to end the war in the Middle East. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the midterms, dealing a major setback to President Donald Trump and his Republican Party. The sweep gives them greater leverage over government spending, potentially constraining the administration’s ability to pursue the Iran conflict. On the fundamental front, combined crude exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait climbed by 10% to top 15 million barrels a day. Saudi Aramco has ramped up production and shipments from key terminals like Ras Tanura and Yanbu. The nearest time spread for the regional Dubai benchmark was in a bearish contango structure at the start of the week. The November contract was last at a discount of about $2 per barrel to December. In simple terms, the November contract was trading at a discount to December, indicating relief in short-term supply.
Technically, WTI is trading at $88.26 and has broken below the ascending parallel channel on the daily timeframe. The parallel channel can be seen by connecting the lows of $67.95, $80.29, and $90.42, and the highs of $94.49 and $106.96. In this scenario, every rise becomes a selling opportunity. The 5-period RSI remains extremely oversold on the 5-day and shorter timeframes. A bounce higher towards the $96.9 levels becomes likely. This level can be a good shorting opportunity. Moreover, the support levels critical to monitor lower are $75.4, followed by $68.60.
Technically, Brent is trading at $98.54 and has also broken below the 50-day SMA on the daily timeframe. The 5-period RSI remains extremely oversold on the 5-day and shorter timeframes. A bounce higher towards the $104.5 levels becomes likely. This level can be a good shorting opportunity. Moreover, the support levels critical to monitor lower are $87.17, followed by $70.93.
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index is down by 0.75% this week and remains under pressure, trading near 101.40 (-0.3%) today. The index extended its decline for a second consecutive session following the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. EUR/USD has advanced towards 1.1265, reflecting broad-based weakness in the greenback.
The political shift has also intensified concerns surrounding US trade policy and the sustainability of AI-related investment, with greater congressional scrutiny potentially weighing on technology spending and the broader growth outlook. Meanwhile, expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict have contributed to a sharp decline in oil prices, pulling Treasury yields lower and reducing inflation-related support for the dollar.
On the economic front, stronger-than-expected US private-sector employment data offered some support, with ADP payrolls rising by 86,000 in October against expectations of 69,000. The ISM Services PMI remained in expansion territory at 54.5. Attention now turns to Friday’s October NFP report, which will be a key indicator of US labour-market resilience and could significantly influence expectations for the Fed’s December policy decision. Markets continue to price in an approximately 81% probability of a December Fed rate hike, keeping monetary policy expectations supportive.
Technically, DXY is trading below the 20 EMA at 101.75, which now acts as resistance. Support is seen at 101.27 (50 EMA), and a break below this level could extend downside momentum. Meanwhile, EUR/USD retains its bullish trend, with immediate support near 1.121 and resistance positioned around the 50-day EMA at 1.131. Overall, despite resilient US data and hawkish Fed expectations, falling Treasury yields, political uncertainty and softer geopolitical risk premiums are likely to keep the dollar under pressure, maintaining a bearish near-term bias.
