- US MarketsÂ
The S&P 500 held its upward momentum yesterday and is pushing higher this morning, trading around $6,875 in Asian hours, firmly above the key $6,850 level and signaling growing strength ahead of next week’s FOMC.
Equities continue to trade near record highs amid an increasingly healthy market rotation, a constructive sign for the rally’s durability. The Nasdaq took a breather, but small-cap stocks kept climbing, with the Russell 2000 racing closer to its record high. Investors are showing a strong appetite for risk, especially in cyclical sectors and high-growth tech names. Even though the latest ADP report pointed to weaker payrolls, part of a trend of softer job data in recent months, markets are interpreting this as a sign the Federal Reserve could move more quickly toward cutting rates, giving stocks an extra boost. Bond yields remain anchored just above 4%, and futures continue to price in a near-certain 25 bps cut next Wednesday, providing a favorable liquidity backdrop. Meanwhile, macro data beyond labor have been consistently positive, and the Citi Economic Surprise Index has been on a positive trend for almost five months, its longest since 2023, which is encouraging because the underlying economic momentum is not yet exhausted. Options flows also support upside. Strong positive dealer gamma is at $6,850, which will stabilize pullbacks, while the shift in resistance toward $6,900 reflects a market preparing for a potential breakout. Attention turns to today’s Core PCE release, with expectations of 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY.
The S&P 500 is trading above its short-term moving averages, maintaining its bullish momentum as it tests resistance. Key supports are at 9-day SMA $6,829, with the next support at this week’s low of $6,790. Immediate resistance is at $6,882, and a break above could spark a momentum buy and set a new all-time high at $6,913. The setup is increasingly favoring an upside resolution as breadth and rotation improve.
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
The U.S. Dollar Index struggled to sustain yesterday’s mild rebound, finishing 0.2% higher, and is currently down in Asian hours today, trading around $98.93, down 0.15%. The underlying narrative remains firmly bearish as rate expectations continue to chip away at the dollar’s appeal. The CME FedWatch tool now shows an 88.2% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. JPY/USD has also risen by around 1% till this week as expectations of a BOJ rate hike have increased, reducing demand for the U.S. dollar.
Focus now shifts to upcoming economic releases. The Eurozone’s Q3 GDP data due today may fuel renewed support for the euro if growth surprises positively. Later today, the U.S. PCE Price Index data is scheduled for release, which will be scrutinized for more cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate-cut path.
On a technical side, the DXY is trading below its key short-term moving averages. The 9- and 50-day SMAs lie at $99.32 and $99.54, respectively. The immediate support for the index lies at the 100 Day SMA at $98.58, followed by $97.46 (the October month low). The immediate resistance lies at $99.05 level (horizontal base resistance), followed by $99.37 level (last week’s low). The EURUSD is trading at 1.1659, up 0.12%. Immediate support lies at the 9 Day SMA at 1.1617 and resistance around 1.1682 (yesterday’s high).
- Crude OilÂ
WTI crude oil rose by 0.97% in yesterday’s trading session, closing at $59.71, the highest for this week. It is currently trading around $59.60, down 0.20% in early Asian trading hours today, as crude supply is forecasted to outpace demand according to the IEA.
Prices face downside pressure today as Hungary reported that the oil flows from Russia via the key Druzhba oil pipeline have continued after it came under attack by Ukraine. The daily rates for chartering a vessel to transport commodities have surged this year, with oil tanker rates skyrocketing by 467% according to Bloomberg’s estimates based on data from the Baltic Exchange and commodity markets data provider Spark Commodities. These elevated freight expenses get passed on as higher landed costs, potentially curbing demand and pressuring prices downward amid a 2026 production surplus outlook.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has cut the price of its main crude grade to Asia to the lowest level in five years, as global oil markets continue to show signs of surplus. The cut of 60 cents was slightly larger than market expectations, exceeding the anticipated 30-cent-per-barrel reduction based on a survey of refiners and traders. This is a bearish signal for WTI crude oil.
From a technical perspective, the coinciding 50 SMA level of $59.94 and the descending trendline continue to offer resistance at $59.75. A break above this level is needed to trigger an intraday rally. The support lies at $59.42 from the 9 and 20-day SMA. For Brent, resistance lies at $63.25 and support is seen at $62.96.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold was almost flat yesterday, edging up 0.13%. Early today, it’s up another 0.28%. Overall, the reaction has been muted as markets wait for key US data.
On the fundamental side, the broader view on gold stays bullish, but investors are cautious ahead of the PCE print. The Fed relies heavily on PCE to gauge inflation, and a hotter reading could pull back expectations of rate cuts. Recent data has been mixed: the ADP report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in November versus expectations of a 47,000 gain, while jobless claims came in stronger at 191,000 compared with the 218,000 forecast. However, as surveys suggest, this indicator can be choppy during the holiday season, such as Thanksgiving. Core PCE for September is expected at 2.9%, and the market is likely to stay range-bound until the release gives clearer direction.
Technically, gold is trading between $4,167 and $4,258. It tested support at $4,167 yesterday and bounced, a level that was also respected on 2 December and 13 November. Prices are holding above the 9-day SMA after finding support near $4,190. A clean break above $4,258 could open the path toward $4,300. Momentum remains constructive: gold is trading above the 9, 21, 50, 100 and 200-day SMAs, and the RSI at 63.6 is trending higher, suggesting the metal still has room to move.
Silver is also stuck in a tight range between $56.68 and $58.90. It touched $58.75 yesterday before sliding 2.3% into the close. Fundamentally, the view stays bullish. Silver continues to face a supply deficit, and that gap is expected to persist. ETF demand has also strengthened, with weekly inflows at their highest level since July. If silver breaks above $58.90, it could move toward the next resistance near $60. The RSI sits around 70, showing strong momentum and suggesting buyers are still in control despite the recent pullback.
