US Markets
US Markets rallied on Thursday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing above 1%. Today, stock futures were little changed as traders looked ahead to August’s big payrolls report.
US stocks rallied on Thursday, supported by Treasury yields pulling back. This was after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would consider supporting holding rates at their current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the central bank’s Sept. 15-16 meeting. Traders are watching the next market catalyst this week, which is August’s jobs report, due Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 53,000 nonfarm payrolls were added last month, and they expect the unemployment rate to be 4.1%. This compares to a loss of 23,000 jobs in July.
Inflation statistics expected for release next week will also be pivotal; however, ongoing decreases in employment should be enough for the central bank to start considering the labour side of its mandate when prescribing policy, rather than maintaining an unwavering commitment to quelling price pressures.
From a technical perspective, prices are near 7,752 and have recaptured the 9 and 21 EMA on the daily chart while exhibiting strong momentum. Daily RSI is now close to 70, indicating further strength in pricing. On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at 7,736 which is the 4th August breakout, followed by the 7,696 level. Immediate resistance is at 7,771, the 28th August high, followed by the all-time high level of 7,816.
US Dollar Index
The dollar index trades near 99.02, with today’s nonfarm payrolls report the key focus, expected to print around 55,000 versus July’s -23,000 decline. A weaker-than-expected print would lower September rate-hike expectations further, adding fresh bearish pressure on the dollar as it revives labour-market softness concerns, while a stronger print could help stabilise hike bets near current levels, offering some near-term dollar support. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, with Fed Governors Barr and Waller having already characterized the labour market as “stable,” suggesting limited urgency to hike regardless of today’s outcome. Beyond payrolls, next week’s CPI data remains the more decisive input for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Yen strength continues to weigh on the dollar complex, with USD/JPY pressured by rising BOJ hike bets, while elevated Brent crude above $95, on lingering Gulf tensions, offers some offsetting support.
On the technical side, the index broke down from its short-term rising channel after failing at resistance in the 99.670–99.800 zone, confirming a bearish reversal. Price is consolidating just above support at 99.208, after tagging a low near 98.83. Resistance has flipped to 99.408, followed by 99.670, both of which should cap any near-term bounce. A break below 99.208 would open the way toward 98.617, in line with the broader descending trendline. The bias stays bearish below 99.408, and a soft payrolls print today would reinforce this downside risk.
Crude Oil
Oil is headed for the biggest weekly gain since July. Yesterday, prices rose about 0.5- 1% as shipping disruptions continued in the Strait. WTI is hovering around $92.1 and Brent around $97.9. With no signs of a near-term resolution, crude prices have tailwinds. The bias remains moderately bullish.
Refined products such as diesel are seeing even steeper gains due to the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. US retail industrial fuel prices hit their highest level since mid-2022 this week, while stockpiles in Europe are well below seasonal levels. Despite the hostilities in the Middle East, some crude shipments continue to exit the Persian Gulf through Hormuz, with US officials this week pointing to robust regional flows. This dims the chances of a sharp rally without any serious escalation in the conflict. Saudi Arabia also kept the price of its flagship crude to Asia unchanged for next month, going against market expectations for an increase. Overall, with Iran focused on delaying recovery in oil supply through the Strait, the geopolitical and shipping risk premium remains high.
Technically, WTI remains constructive after holding above key support at $89.50, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $87.50 providing the next layer of support. On the upside, resistance is concentrated in the $93-$93.50 zone, followed by $94.50.
A pullback into the $88-$89 range could offer a long entry, targeting $93 initially. Alternatively, a sustained break above $93.50 could trigger a momentum move toward $94.50.
Gold and Silver
Gold prices were little changed on Friday, holding near recent highs as investors awaited the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Spot gold remained around $4,468/oz, following a strong 2% rally on Thursday.
Gold has been supported by shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged if inflation continues to moderate. This has reduced expectations of an imminent rate hike, although markets still price roughly a 50% chance of a Fed hike later this month.
The NFP report is therefore the key near-term catalyst. A weaker-than-expected payrolls figure, particularly if accompanied by a rise in unemployment, could strengthen expectations for a Fed pause and provide further upside for gold. On the other hand, stronger labor market data could revive rate-hike expectations and trigger some profit-taking. With next week’s inflation data also in focus, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Gold remains driven by strong fundamental demand, as central banks continue to buy, with their three-month average purchases reaching a year-high. ETFs also saw inflows in August, boosting investor sentiment.
European central banks are also aiming to diversify their gold holdings, showing continued demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold is still recovering but has not yet broken through the key resistance area between $4,500 and $4,520. If the price closes above that zone on the four-hour chart, the bullish outlook would strengthen, with targets at $4,560 and $4,600. Until then, gold may stay within the range of $4,430 to $4,490. A drop below $4,440 could push prices down toward $4,370.
Silver remains bullish, but momentum is slowing near resistance; a move above $67.50 to $68.30 would support further gains, while a drop below $65.70 would make the outlook bearish and expose $64.80.
