- US MarketsÂ
The SPX Index and NDX Index are up about 0.25% and 0.42%, respectively, in the day and are currently trading at $6,930 and $25,519.
From a fundamental standpoint, as the decision on Trump tariffs is postponed, Goldman Sachs expects Americans to bear half of the costs of Trump’s tariffs, as tariffs have already added 0.44% to inflation, and the share of costs borne by U.S. consumers could rise to 70% if additional tariffs are introduced. On the data front, PPI for November clocked actuals in line with analyst expectations. Looking ahead into the day, Initial Jobless Claims is set to get the limelight. On the earnings front, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are set to release their earnings today.
Furthermore, it must be noted that the equal weighted SPX Index is hitting new all time high levels, while the SPX has been struggling to break past the $7K mark, suggesting a possible sector rotation from tech into other sectors.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX Index has bounced off the trendline support connecting the lows of $6,503 on 21st November 2025, $6,713 on 18th December 2025, and $6,819 on 2nd January 2026, which supports a bullish stance for the day, with targets reaching $7,000 and support at $6,885.
- Crude OilÂ
Crude Oil prices had a volatile trading session on Wednesday but closed lower for the day, with WTI falling 0.70% and Brent falling 0.21%. Markets faced continued pressure on Thursday, with WTI trading 1.14% lower and Brent falling 1.65% during the Asian session.
Rising geopolitical risks from Iran had been propping up oil prices this week; however, President Trump’s comments yesterday eased tensions and capped the upside. He noted that violence in Iran’s protests was subsiding and indicated no plan for large-scale executions. On top of that, US Crude oil inventories reported by the EIA came in much higher than expected at 3.39 million compared to expectations of a 1.7 million drawdown, indicating short-term fundamental weakness.
Crude oil retreated from a multi-month high after touching $62.45, forming a daily candle with long wicks on both sides, indicating heightened volatility along with a large volume profile. On the daily chart, the retreat of WTI prices also coincided with the 200-SMA, and today’s fall took prices below the 100-SMA as well, leading to continued bearish pressure in the short term. For Brent, the bearish trend can continue until prices break above the 200-SMA near the $66.30 level.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Â
Today DXY is trading 0.11% higher at 99.157.
The recent dollar strength is more a result of economic fundamentals rather than views of Fed policy. US fundamentals continue to hold up, with stronger-than-expected November retail sales and higher producer prices reflecting sound US demand and core inflation patterns consistent with the market’s revision of Fed rate cuts later, rather than March. As a result, US yields continue to be substantially higher than those of other G7 countries. The broader 10-year US-Germany yield differential naturally contributes to a weaker EURUSD. Working together, stronger US growth, higher real yields, and an ECB that is closer to easing form a trio of forces that underpins a gradual decline in EUR/USD. It matches the technical forecast despite not implying a breakout or sustained surge in the greenback.
The EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour time frame is still in a strong downtrend with a series of lower highs and lower lows from 1.18 down to 1.16. Also, every decline has been followed by a weak sideways market that has supported the downtrend. The market is currently in a consolidation phase just above the support level of 1.163-1.1600, where the last decline stopped.
There isn’t a bull reversal pattern in play; therefore, the trend direction remains lower. A possible rise towards 1.1670-1.1700, which corresponds to the last 4-hour lower high, appears to be a sell-the-rally trade. A clear break below 1.1600 will confirm that there is a continuation towards new lows. A bullish scenario will only get underway if there is a return above 1.1670-1.1700.
- Gold & SilverÂ
On Wednesday, investors saw new highs in gold, which climbed to $4656 before retreating. Gold and Silver are in a structural bullish phase due to market volatility and geopolitics.
Fundamentally, Gold looks bullish. The VIX jumped 4.82% yesterday, showing rising market stress. As geopolitical risks increase, investors typically move into safe-haven assets like gold. Key concerns include intensifying protests in Iran and growing tensions between the US and EU over Greenland, with the US sharpening its rhetoric. Moreover, the White House said that President Trump signed an order to protect the US supply of rare earths, contributing to the momentum. Lastly, concerns over the Fed’s independence remain a key concern. Central bank chiefs across the globe voiced support for the Fed Chair after Trump threatened to indict him.
Technically, gold may face resistance around $4,685 on the ascending trendline formed by joining the highs of Oct 27, Nov 13, and Dec 26, 2025. On the daily chart, Gold is consolidating and taking support at $4573. The next support lies around $4,550, a previously tested level. The daily RSI is at 70, reaffirming bullish momentum in gold.
Silver jumped 7% yesterday, hitting an all-time high of $93, before pulling back 3.63% in early trading today to around $86.10. RSI peaked at 76 and is now easing toward 70, while momentum is still positive. Key support sits near $88.87, while resistance remains at yesterday’s high of $93.
