U.S. Markets
The SPX Index and the Nasdaq Index are down about 0.22% and 0.61% in the day and are currently trading at $7,485 and $28,941.
From a fundamental stance, according to Bloomberg, the AI hardware rally found support as two major headwinds eased. Semiconductors, led by memory makers, are expected to rebound amid short covering. Another reason is that neither growing local opposition to data centres nor cheaper Chinese models signals the end of the AI-capex cycle. Earnings expectations may have temporarily peaked, but the underlying demand for compute, memory, networking, and power remains intact, given recent Asian export data and price increases from the likes of TSMC. Looking ahead, earnings from Alphabet and Tesla are expected to garner attention.
From a technical stance, the index has just broken the hourly support level at $7,485-$7,490, with targets reaching $7,450. However, the recovery of this support targets $7,515 as the next main level.
Gold & Silver
Gold rose by 1.8% in yesterday’s session and is extending its recovery to a two-week high, trading around $4,120 (+1%) in Asian trading today as technical buying and renewed dip-buying supported the metal following last week’s sharp decline. Hopes of renewed diplomatic talks between the US and Iran have also helped ease some concerns around energy-driven inflation.
Geopolitical uncertainty, however, remains elevated. Continued US-Iran strikes, disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and fresh threats to Red Sea shipping from Yemen’s Houthis are keeping oil prices elevated. This could sustain inflationary pressures and reinforce expectations that US interest rates will remain high. Markets are currently pricing in around an 87% probability of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end, which remains a key headwind for non-yielding gold ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
That being said, underlying demand has also improved, with hedge fund net-long positioning rising to a five-month high, while continued central-bank purchases provide broader support.
From a technical perspective, gold retains a bullish intraday bias after breaking above $4,100. Resistance is seen around the 50% Fib level at $4,170, while support lies around $4,070–$4,090. Silver is showing improving strength, trading around $59.40, up 6% this week. Silver may find resistance around $61 (38.2% Fib level), while support for the metal is seen at $56.2 (yesterday’s low).
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil continued its strong rally in the previous session, gaining 2.51%, and at the time of writing is trading around $87, up another 2%. The recent gains are being driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as traders continue to price in the risk of supply disruptions.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has now entered its 10th consecutive day, with concerns spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz after Yemen’s Houthi militants threatened Saudi shipping in the Red Sea. These developments have increased fears of disruptions to global oil supplies, while two Indian state-run refiners have reportedly suspended crude oil loadings from Iraq due to rising security risks and higher insurance costs.
Oil traders are also preparing for further market swings. Open interest in Brent crude options has surged above 5 million contracts for the first time on record, reflecting strong demand for hedging as implied volatility climbs. At the same time, traders have increasingly adopted put spread strategies to protect against a sudden de-escalation in the conflict, highlighting expectations of continued uncertainty.
From a technical perspective, the intraday outlook for WTI remains bullish as long as prices hold above the 9-day EMA at $81, which continues to act as the key support level. On the upside, the immediate resistance is seen around $91, aligning with a key horizontal resistance zone, followed by the next level of $99, the high recorded last month. Immediate support is placed at $82, marking the previous session’s low. Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading around $90.45, up 1.74%, with immediate support at $86.80, the previous session’s low, and resistance near $94.76.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The U.S. Dollar Index remained firm above the 101 mark today, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session as higher U.S. Treasury yields and rising oil prices continued to support demand for the greenback.
Safe-haven flows remained in focus after the U.S. carried out strikes on Iranian targets for an eleventh straight night. President Donald Trump also played down the prospects of near-term negotiations with Tehran, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels disrupted shipping through the Red Sea, adding to concerns over global energy supplies. Fresh attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal along Russia’s Black Sea coast further reinforced supply risks, helping keep oil prices elevated.
On the economic front, ADP figures showed private employers added an average of 16,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending July 4, down from 19,250 in the previous four-week period, which marks a fourth consecutive slowdown. However, the softer employment data had little impact on the dollar as geopolitical risks and rising energy prices remained the dominant market drivers.
The stronger dollar also kept the Japanese yen pinned near a four-decade low, with rising Treasury yields widening the yield gap between the U.S. and Japan. The move has renewed speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene in the currency market if the yen weakens further, although officials have recently preferred verbal warnings and surprise interventions over issuing explicit threats.
Attention is also turning to tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting. While the central bank is expected to maintain a hawkish bias, markets have already priced in much of the tightening outlook. Moreover, the eurozone economy remains more vulnerable to elevated energy prices than the U.S., limiting the scope for a sustained recovery in the euro. As a result, any hawkish ECB message may provide only temporary support for EUR/USD, with the pair likely to remain under pressure unless accompanied by a meaningful improvement in the region’s growth outlook.
On the charts, DXY has broken above both the descending trendline that capped gains since 24 June. The current pullback appears to be a retest of the breakout zone around 100.982-101.019. As long as that area holds, the breakout remains valid with scope toward 101.43, followed by 101.55. A sustained move back below 100.98 (9-day ema) would weaken the bullish breakout thesis. EUR/USD has rebounded from ascending trendline support and is testing a key resistance at 1.1419, which is a confluence of a short-term descending trendline and the 9-day EMA. Failure to clear 1.1419 would keep the recent corrective structure intact, with 1.1391 acting as the next support.
