Gold and silver are trading higher today, with gold up 0.35% and silver up around 1% at the time of writing. Gold is holding above the $4,300 level after gaining around 7% last week, its strongest weekly performance since January. The move continues to be supported by softer US labor-market data, which has reduced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike.
US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July, while hiring in the previous two months was revised lower. This has pushed the probability of a September Fed hike down to around 43%, from 64% a week ago, easing pressure on precious metals. The weaker jobs data also weighed on the dollar, providing additional support for gold and silver.
Investor demand is also improving. Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish gold positions to the highest level in more than six months, while gold-backed ETFs in China saw another week of inflows. China’s central bank also added 640,000 ounces of gold in July, marking its 21st consecutive month of purchases.
Despite the recent rally, gold remains nearly 20% below its pre-Iran-war level, while ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and tensions in the Middle East continue to support safe-haven demand. With US inflation data due later this week, the direction of the dollar and rate expectations will remain key for precious metals in the near term.
Technically, Gold is approaching a key resistance level at 4,371, which marks last week’s high. A sustained break above this level would reinforce bullish momentum and open the door for a move toward 4,412. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at 4,317 continues to provide support and has so far contained weakness, aligning with today’s low. Similarly, for silver, it is approaching last week’s highs of 65.16. A break above this level could trigger a move toward 66.10, where channel resistance formed on the hourly is currently situated. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA at 62.76 acts as key support and helps underpin the broader bullish structure.
Crude OilToday, oil prices continue to rise, with Brent gaining 1.24% to near $86 and WTI rising 1% to near $78, as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz kept volatility elevated.
Iran said talks with Oman on a temporary shipping route through the strait are very close, but Tehran warned any agreement would not lead to an immediate reopening, tying full access to US compensation for alleged breaches of the June interim peace deal, an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief, and the release of frozen assets. Iran also rejected direct talks with Washington for now, even as President Trump signaled patience despite mounting pressure to close a deal.
In terms of geopolitical risk, it was reported that Houthi militants supported by Iran are allegedly responsible for an attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on the weekend, and a ship operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. was targeted by missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the fourth time in a week that an ADNOC vessel was struck. Since any deal on Hormuz would have to be ratified by Iran’s Supreme Leader, risk assets remain in limbo amid headlines of de-escalation of tensions on the one hand and reports of new attacks on the other.
Both WTI and Brent prices are highly affected by developments in the Middle East, particularly uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. sanctions against Iran.
On the chart, Brent is trading around $86.3, exactly at the 200-day SMA, consolidating after a steep correction from its $101.7 peak in late July. On the 4-Hour chart, Brent has created a floor above the $81 support level and could test resistance around $89.39 just below the 100-period SMA. A break below $84.9 would suggest renewed downside risk toward $83-$81 levels.
WTI is trading near $78.2, after finding support in the $75-76 range; prices have rebounded but remain capped below the key $81 resistance zone. A breakout above this level could open the way toward $82.8, while failure to hold $76.8 may trigger a retest of the recent lows near $75.
U.S. Markets
U.S. equities remain firmly bullish, with the S&P 500 breaking to a fresh record after rising 3.6% in the previous week, driven by firm earnings by leading tech firms. The index is up 0.12% today, trading around $7,762. The sharp rally seen last week appears largely driven by short covering, with stops around previous highs triggering additional buying.
Optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is supporting risk sentiment, although uncertainty remains after conflicting signals from both sides. Oil has also remained relatively contained, helping ease pressure on equities.
The macro backdrop has turned more supportive for stocks after July payrolls unexpectedly contracted, reducing expectations for further Fed tightening. Markets now price roughly a 44% chance of a September rate hike, down from 67% a week earlier. Investors will focus on this week’s CPI and PPI reports for further clues on inflation. Sector rotation also remains important. Financials and healthcare are showing improving relative strength, contributing to the broader rally. Investors will also watch earnings from On Holding, Cava Group, Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave this week.
Overall, momentum remains positive, with the index trading above all key SMAs and resistance around the all-time high of $7,795, followed by $7,850. A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for further gains. Initial support lies at $7,700, making this an attractive zone for long entries on any pullback. Stronger support sits around $7,660 at the 8-EMA.
The Dollar Index advanced today after falling as much as 0.3% on Friday, the lowest level since late May. The decline came after weaker-than-expected US employment data that lowered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
However, on Monday, the greenback rebounded from a two-month low as oil extended gains, with traders awaiting US inflation figures on Wednesday this week for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Chairman Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates if inflation readings in the coming weeks are hot and if markets increase their expectations of a hike in borrowing costs. Additionally, Brent crude futures rose for a fourth day as Iran and Oman remained short of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The yen looks the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the greenback and lifting USD/JPY back above 158 to where it was before the data hit. EUR/USD is down 0.01%.
Technically, the dollar index is trading at 99.3, below the 9 and 21 EMAs on the daily chart. However, prices are close to reclaiming the 200 EMA. The dollar has also taken support at the long-term trendline joining the lows of 27th Jan and 7th August 2026, adding to its bullishness. On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at the trendline level of 99.1. A break below this level can turn into a bearish move in the dollar and send it to the 98.7 level. Resistance is at the 99.6 level, which coincides with the 100 EMA. A break above this level can add to the bullish bias of the dollar and push it to the 100 level.
