Gold and silver remain firmly supported by a softer US dollar, fading expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike, and renewed demand across precious metals. Gold is trading around $4,403 per ounce, having risen on Monday before giving back some gains on Tuesday as higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices weighed on bullion. Despite the intraday pullback, expectations of a Fed hold in September, continued central-bank buying, recovering ETF demand, stronger speculative positioning, and renewed safe-haven demand continue to provide support. Attention now turns to the Fed minutes and Jackson Hole for further clues on the policy outlook.
Technically, gold is holding above the $4,400 level and remains supported by a rising trendline. Resistance is seen at $4,447, followed by $4,469 and $4,500, while $4,380 is the immediate support and $4,350 provides stronger trendline support. A break above $4,447 could reinforce the bullish structure and open the way toward $4,500.
Silver is trading around $65.23 per ounce, consolidating near its recent highs after coming under some pressure on Tuesday following Monday’s gains. The metal continues to benefit from broad strength across precious metals and easing expectations for Fed tightening. Silver is holding above its rising trendline, with $66.40 as the key resistance, followed by $66.67 and $66.90 , a break above could trigger further upside. On the downside, $64.30 remains the key support.
Overall, both metals retain a constructive technical and fundamental setup, with dollar weakness and Fed policy expectations remaining the key catalysts to watch.
Crude Oil
The oil market is relatively flat today. WTI is currently trading at $85, while Brent trades at $92.
From a fundamental standpoint, WTI has been grinding their way higher in recent sessions, as the US signals that the showdown with Iran is set to run. The two sides remain far apart on a host of issues, including Hormuz. While Iran is negotiating with Oman over how to manage the critical waterway, Washington is not part of those talks. Trump has threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way of a US naval blockade.
Technically, WTI has 61.8% fib resistance at $87, which coincides with the trendline resistance and reinforces its bearish stance from this level. On the 4-hour timeframe, a clear bearish RSI divergence is also visible. Hence, shorts can be entered at this level, targeting $80. However, a break above $87 can target $90.
U.S. indices are trading lower in early trade, with the S&P 500 down 0.36% at 7,722 and the Nasdaq 100 falling 0.70% to 29,775.5 at the time of writing. The weakness follows a negative start to the week as renewed tensions between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns and driving Treasury yields sharply upward.
Oil rose more than 2% amid uncertainty surrounding the expired US-Iran ceasefire and stalled negotiations, while Brent climbed to its highest level in more than three weeks. The rise in crude is feeding directly into rates markets, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.32%, its highest level since June 2007. The selloff is also broad-based across global bonds, with Japanese and European government debt coming under pressure. Unless oil prices and long-dated yields reverse, the current backdrop is likely to remain challenging for equities.
Technology stocks are leading the decline, particularly as the Nasdaq 100 faces a more difficult rates environment. The index’s breadth remains strong, with around 73% of its constituents trading above their 200-day moving average, but this is occurring alongside a renewed bear steepening in the Treasury curve. For now, equities remain close to record territory, but the combination of higher long-term rates and renewed geopolitical risk leaves the market increasingly vulnerable to further volatility.
Technically, SPX needs to hold support at 7705 to stay constructive. A break lower shifts focus to next support at 7671. On the upside, 7776 is the first target, with all-time highs the next resistance if momentum builds. The Nasdaq is retesting its descending trendline from the June highs. For bulls, this trendline, which is now support-turned-resistance-
US Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed relatively flat on Monday with a 0.06% drop, while the EUR/USD pair rose by 0.09% by the close. Tuesday’s Asian session is seeing a reversal in trend, with the DXY rising 0.09%, while EUR/USD is trading 0.07% lower, retreating from a 2-month high.
The dollar seems to have lost the rate-hike premium it has carried since the July FOMC meeting, especially after softer CPI, PPI, and retail sales prints, which have lowered the odds of a September rate hike to a third. Even with geopolitical tensions not completely dying down, and Iranian officials discussing a shift from a defensive to an offensive policy stance if diplomacy fails, safe-haven buying of the US dollar seems to have waned. The market’s focus will shift to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting minutes, where crucial details from the 9-3 vote will be discussed, giving a real look into the decision-making process and what to expect next. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank seems set to raise interest rates at its September meeting, highlighting the divergence in monetary policy between the two central banks.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar index remains tilted towards a bearish bias. This is evident from the retest of the breakdown from the upward-sloping trendline connecting the lows of 27th Jan, 6th May, 3rd August, and 7th August. The 200-day EMA sits around 99.636, and a close above it today would be key to marking a short-term reversal to the upside. On the downside, further selling momentum is possible if the index breaks below yesterday’s 99.294 low. For EUR/USD, the 200-day EMA sits near 1.1557, providing crucial near-term support while the currency remains in a bullish market structure.
