WTI crude gained 6.25% last week and is currently trading at $86.11, down 1.65% in early Monday trading. While prices are lower today following increased tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz, the broader fundamental backdrop remains supportive.
Around 40 tankers moved through the Strait on Friday night, carrying nearly 16 million barrels, offering some near-term supply relief. However, flows remain very low, while rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. preparing to impose tougher sanctions on Iran and its trading partners, particularly oil buyers such as China, keep supply risks elevated. The sanctions could further restrict Iranian oil exports and support crude prices.
Meanwhile, there are signs of improving Chinese demand. Chinese refiners recently bought 10 million barrels of Saudi Arab Medium and Heavy crude, while another 14 million barrels have been allocated under annual contracts. There are also signs of recovering refinery runs and renewed stockpiling activity, providing an additional demand tailwind.
Oil remains technically strong, trading above all its key moving averages, including the 9-day EMA, which confirms the ongoing bullish trend. The current pullback has brought prices close to the 9-day EMA around $85, providing an opportunity to take an intraday long position. The immediate support is at the 20-day EMA around $83.50 followed by $81.70, last week’s low. On the upside, $88.58, last week’s high, is the immediate resistance. A sustained break above this level could push oil toward $94.49, a key resistance level that also marks last month’s high. Brent is currently trading at $91.08, down 1.40% in today’s session. The immediate support is at the 9-day EMA around $89, while the immediate resistance is at $93.15, the previous session’s high.
Gold & Silver
Gold has climbed to its highest level in more than three months following the US Treasury’s decision to double long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation. The move has revived the “debasement trade,” as efforts to contain borrowing costs raise concerns that greater policy intervention could weigh on confidence in the dollar and strengthen demand for alternative stores of value such as gold. Similar concerns around currency debasement and fiscal sustainability were a major force behind gold’s remarkable 65% rally in 2025. The theme gained further traction after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that buybacks could be expanded further. Meanwhile, the dollar has remained under pressure since early August as softer US data has weakened the higher-yield, stronger-dollar narrative, providing an additional tailwind for gold.
Demand is also strengthening. Central-bank purchases rebounded to 289 tonnes in Q2, led by Poland with 51 tonnes during the quarter and 82 tonnes in H1, while China added 33 tonnes in Q2. The broader outlook therefore remains constructive, although some consolidation after the recent rally would be healthy. Key risks are a more hawkish Fed, a rebound in real yields or renewed dollar strength, putting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech and the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting firmly in focus.
Gold is up around 0.96% at $4,647.43, with immediate resistance near $4,651; a sustained break could open the way toward $4,700 and $4,765, while support sits around $4,560. Silver, meanwhile, is up roughly 20% this month, benefiting from many of the same macro tailwinds alongside a supportive longer-term backdrop of industrial demand and constrained supply. Silver is up around 0.20% at $69.11, leaving $70 as the key psychological and technical hurdle. The metal failed to sustain a break above this area in June, making a decisive move beyond $70 an important signal for further upside.
US Markets
While US equity markets closed relatively flat on Friday, last week marked a drawdown after three weeks of buying momentum pushed markets higher, with the SPX index recently touching record highs. For last week, though, the SPX index was 1.44% lower, while the NDX index closed 2.54% lower. Markets are echoing the bearish sentiment at the start of this week, with the SPX trading 0.18% lower and the NDX trading 0.71% lower during Monday’s Asian session.
Markets seem to be under pressure from higher bond yields worldwide, with the US 30-year Treasury yield topping 5.3%, levels it has not seen in nearly 20 years. Rates in Japan, France, and Germany have also reached multiyear highs, affecting borrowing costs around the globe, not boding well for equities. With no end in sight to the conflict in Iran, markets remain wary of rising oil prices keeping inflation levels high for longer. Global trade tensions also seem to be back, with the US recently announcing a 50% tariff on Canadian goods, affecting billions of dollars in trade, and Canadian PM Mark Carney vowing to retaliate. This could negatively affect overall risk sentiment. This week will be key for market-moving events, with the PCE Price Index providing inflation updates and the key Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium. Artificial intelligence will also be in focus, with Nvidia and Marvell Technology set to report earnings Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX index has broken below the key $7700 level, which was acting as a support in early and mid-August. Prices seem to have retested the breakdown levels and fallen below the 9-EMA on the daily chart, indicating potential short-term bearishness. Today’s price action has also seen the NDX index fall below the 50-EMA on the daily chart and the 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, breaking below key support near $29,120 and suggesting a weak market structure for now.
US Dollar Index
Over the past week, the dollar index fell nearly 1% after Bessent doubled buybacks for longer-dated securities. In today’s session, the index remains steady as downward pressure persists, with hedge funds increasing bearish dollar positions ahead of more information on the buyback plan. Further, diminishing rate-hike prospects, along with traders avoiding long dollar exposures through the midterm elections in November amid increased uncertainty around US politics and tail risks from potential election disputes, add to downward pressure on the dollar. This is also evident in the options market. According to Bloomberg’s dollar index 1-month risk reversal, the premium to hedge the dollar’s downside over the next month relative to its upside has climbed to its highest since February. According to data from the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp, demand for dollar put options versus the euro was 47% larger than that of dollar call options on Aug. 21.
Technically, the dollar trades at 98.9, below the 9- and 21-day SMA levels of 99.35 and 99.83, respectively. On the 4-hour chart, it is consolidating and faces strong resistance at 98.90. A near-term support is observed at 98.76, followed by 98.57. Conversely, a breakout and close above 98.90 on the 4-hour chart may indicate near-term bullishness for the index.
