US Markets
US equity markets climbed higher on Wednesday, suggesting a shift in the short-term trend to the upside, with the SPX index up 0.24% and the NDX index up 0.50%. The SPX opened with a gap up and is trading about 0.15% higher, while the NDX is up about 0.37%.
Broader equity markets ran up after Nvidia’s major earnings catalyst reinforced optimism that the AI trade had further room to run. The $5 trillion company acts as a barometer for AI spending, showing if hyperscalers are still accelerating or slowing down on capex. It posted revenue of about $96.22 billion, up 106% YoY, with Data Centre revenue coming in at $89 billion, up 117% YoY, keeping gross margins healthy at 75%. Nvidia guided revenue growth of about 70% in fiscal 2028, while analysts projected about 45%, suggesting a massive upside surprise. On top of this, Nvidia gave no details on the timeline, capacity, markets, or revenues for its latest Vera Rubin system, which has entered full production, suggesting more potential for positive surprises. It’s evident that earnings from the world’s largest company are clearly influencing market sentiment, which is turning bullish for now. On the economic front, July’s PCE price index rose 3.7% YoY, while core PCE increased 3.3% YoY. Consumer spending climbed 0.2%, driven by higher spending on services. Later this week, investors will also be watching for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, seeking details on plans to stabilise long-term Treasury yields, as well as cues on its policy path.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX index has crossed above its 9-day EMA along with recapturing the key $7700 mark, suggesting a bullish market structure for the short term. The index may be trading a downward-sloping channel (Bull Flag on longer timeframes), with potential resistance near $7760 forming as it joins a trendline connecting the highs of 13th, 14th, and 17th August. The NDX also shows a short-term trend reversal, moving above its shorter-term moving averages, with the RSI sloping upward and recapturing the 50 level.
US Dollar Index
In yesterday’s session, the index rose by almost 0.2% as PCE data bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates by year-end. The Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation continued to rise at a 3.7% annual pace in July, nearly twice the central bank’s target. According to the CME Fed Watch, there is a 72% probability of a rate hike by December this year. However, the index remains under pressure, and yesterday’s advance was tempered by separate data showing inflation-adjusted consumer spending in the US was flat in July. This suggests that the economy may be cooling. The index remains steady in today’s session, as traders are now awaiting a Friday speech by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the flagship symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for insights on where rates are likely headed. The US 2-year yields, which are highly correlated with the movement in the dollar, are consolidating ahead of the meeting. Moreover, hedge funds are also increasing bearish dollar positions ahead of more information on the buyback plan. The dollar also remains near its three-month lows and faces pressure as the Treasury Department expands its long-term government debt buyback program to curb rising borrowing costs.
Technically, the index is trading at 99.15, below the 21-day SMA level at 99.52. On the 4-hour chart, it broke above the near-term resistance at 98.91. The near-term bounce may also be a result of the RSI being oversold after the overreaction. However, the overall trend still remains under pressure. The index seems to be forming a bear flag and may continue its downward trend, with near-term support at 98.91, followed by 98.60. Conversely, only a daily close above the resistance at 99.4 will invalidate the bear flag formation and signal near-term bullishness.
Crude Oil
WTI crude oil gained 0.86% in the previous session, forming a doji, signalling indecision after recent weakness. WTI is currently trading at $81.08, down 0.83% in today’s session at the time of writing.
On the fundamental front, the latest EIA report showed U.S. crude inventories increased by 95,000 barrels for the week ended August 21, well below expectations of a 1.58 million-barrel build. However, crude inventories remain 1.3% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating relatively comfortable supply levels. U.S. crude production also rose 0.1% week-on-week to 13.843 million bpd, remaining close to the record high of 13.862 million bpd.
On the supply side, OPEC+ approved a final 188,000 bpd production increase for September, completing the restoration of the 1.65 million bpd supply cuts made in 2023. While the group plans to hold output steady thereafter, renewed geopolitical tensions could make the planned increases difficult to achieve. OPEC’s July crude production rose by +1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd.
Technically, WTI crude is trading near a horizontal base support level, which could present a good intraday buying opportunity. Immediate support is at $80.29, the previous session’s low, which also coincides with the 200-Day EMA. The next key support is at $78.61, a strong horizontal base. As long as WTI holds above $78.61, the view remains bullish. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $84.00, the previous session’s high, followed by $87.34, the current week’s high.
Gold & Silver
Gold fell 1.38% yesterday after three consecutive weeks of gains but remains above $4,600 an ounce and is still up around 15% this month, with the rally largely supported by the US Treasury’s intervention in the bond market. Gold initially gained 1.1% today before paring its advance after Core PCE inflation came in at 3.3% YoY for July, in line with expectations. With several Fed officials looking for clearer evidence that inflationary pressures linked to the Iran conflict are easing, the data could reinforce the case for keeping rates unchanged in September. Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow for further clues on the policy outlook. Beyond rates, positioning remains constructive: money managers have steadily increased net-long exposure over the past three months, but holdings remain well below 2024 peaks, leaving scope for further buying. The narrowing premium between December futures and spot gold is another positive signal, as continued price strength could eventually force bearish futures hedges to be unwound, adding further buying pressure.
Silver, meanwhile, rebounded toward $68.60 on Thursday after the previous session’s decline. While the metal remains sensitive to the same interest-rate, fiscal and dollar dynamics influencing gold, its outlook is also supported by a strong industrial-demand story. Concerns over rising US debt and potential dollar weakness continue to underpin investment demand for precious metals, while silver consumption is expanding across solar power, electric vehicles, electrification and increasingly AI data-centre infrastructure. This combination of monetary and industrial demand gives silver an additional source of support beyond the macro drivers influencing gold, although near-term price action will remain sensitive to the Fed outlook and broader moves in yields and the dollar.
Gold’s intraday bias remains neutral to mildly bullish while it holds above the key $4,600 area, which is attracting buyers after yesterday’s pullback. The immediate hurdle is $4,651–4,665; a clean break above this zone would strengthen momentum and open the door toward $4,700, while failure to clear it could keep gold consolidating between $4,560 and $4,650. Short-term momentum remains constructive but has cooled from overbought levels, so $4,600 is the key pivot to watch today. Silver retains a positive intraday bias after rebounding from the $67.40–68.00 area, with momentum improving and price holding above its 50-day EMA near $68.60. Immediate resistance sits around $69.60–70.00; clearing $70 would be an important bullish signal and could extend the move higher, while a break back below $67.40 would weaken the near-term setup. RSI is around the mid-60s, indicating solid momentum without yet being extremely overbought.
