US Markets
US equity markets continued their run-up for the week, climbing higher steadily on Thursday, with the SPX index closing 0.32% higher and the NDX index closing 0.71% higher. Markets remain relatively flat during the Asian session on Friday, with the SPX about 0.13% higher and the NDX 0.02% lower.
Equity markets got a renewed sentiment boost after Nvidia closed 8.74% higher in yesterday’s session after a positive earnings beat, taking both major indices higher. However, Marvell Technology fell about 8% in overnight trading after issuing current-quarter guidance for non-GAAP gross margin that disappointed the Street, slightly shaking the AI trade optimism. Investors are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Markets will be seeking clarity on his economic outlook and strategy for bringing inflation back to target. A firm message on inflation, fiscal credibility or the need to preserve restrictive policy would tend to lift real and nominal long-end yields, support the dollar and pressure duration-sensitive assets globally, while equities may initially look through it.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX index is steadily rising, marking its fourth straight green session, crossing above key short-term averages with RSI sloping upwards and above the 50 mark, suggesting decent bullish momentum. The index may be trading a downward-sloping channel (Bull Flag on longer timeframes), with potential resistance near $7760 forming as it joins a trendline connecting the highs of 13th, 14th, and 17th August. The NDX also shows a short-term trend reversal, moving above its shorter-term moving averages, with potential resistance near the $30,120 level from a trendline connecting the highs of 3rd June, 22nd June, and 17th August.
US Dollar Index
Yesterday, the index held steady as investors waited for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, which could signal future rate direction. Today, the index remains marginally higher as currency traders hedge against more dollar gains ahead of the speech. Options data and trading positions indicate traders are cautious about a potential rebound. According to CME Group, 57.2% of dollar options flows this week could profit from a stronger dollar against major currencies, up from 43.2% last week. The distinction is that a hedge functions as insurance, and demand for dollar appreciation this week signals significant concern about event risk while showing considerably less enthusiasm for the currency itself. The greenback remains down almost 0.6% this month, and a sustained upward trend seems unlikely as the dollar continues to face pressure, including from the expansion of the long-term debt buyback program.
Technically, the index is trading at 99.16, below the 21-day SMA level at 99.48. The near-term bounce may be a result of the RSI being oversold after the overreaction. However, the overall trend still remains under pressure. The index seems to be forming a bear flag and may continue its downward trend, with near-term support at 98.91, followed by 98.60. Conversely, only a daily close above the resistance at 99.4 will invalidate the bear flag formation and signal near-term bullishness.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil closed 2.02% higher in the previous session, rebounding from the key horizontal base support at $81.44. The technical outlook remains bullish as long as prices hold above $81.44. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $83.65, down 0.58%.
The recent rebound was driven mainly by escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, shifting market attention toward Eastern Europe. Reports that Russia may intensify the war, alongside continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and ports, are raising concerns over disruptions to Russian crude and refined-product exports.
Meanwhile, Middle East developments remain important. Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, with regional crude exports rising to approximately 15–16 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with just 5–6 million bpd at the March trough. However, exports remain 7–8 million bpd below pre-conflict levels.
Iran and Oman have also reached a revenue-sharing agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, although this does not guarantee an immediate reopening. For intraday traders, $81.44 remains the key downside level, while sustained trading above it keeps the bullish bias intact.
Technically, WTI Crude Oil has key horizontal base support at $81.44, followed by the next support at $78.00. On the upside, immediate resistance is at the last session’s high of $84.93, followed by the next resistance at $86.59.
Gold & Silver
Gold dipped below $4,600 an ounce ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today. Part of the decline is attributable to profit-booking after gold surged to a three-month high earlier this week, triggered by the U.S. treasury’s intervention in the bond market, thereby causing the dollar to retreat. Beyond that, market participants are weighing the outlook for interest rates, especially because the new Fed Chair is facing criticism for not being forthright in his views on the U.S. economy. Given the recent spate of economic data points, both policymakers and economists are divided in their stance about monetary policy. At Jackson Hole on Thursday, two central bank officials said interest rates weren’t doing enough to stall price pressures, especially with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target. They urged policymakers to move soon to bring it under control. Boston Fed President Susan Collins, however, took a different view, saying there is evidence that rates are already “mildly restrictive.” Nonetheless, the precious metal has gained more than 13% in August, its strongest monthly performance since January and one of its biggest monthly gains this century, after the U.S. Treasury took steps to stabilize bond prices.
Gold’s rebound remains supported by broad-based investor demand, with physically backed gold ETFs seeing renewed demand. Meanwhile, stronger central-bank purchases continue to provide an important structural tailwind. Despite some near-term consolidation, robust investment flows, central-bank accumulation and concerns around U.S. fiscal sustainability continue to underpin the bullish backdrop. Gold has retreated from this week’s high near $4,696, with prices slipping back toward $4,580. The broader technical structure, however, has improved materially with the emergence of a golden crossover, while price continues to hold well above the major $4,369 breakout support. For today, direction is likely to hinge heavily on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with markets particularly sensitive to any shift in the interest-rate outlook. Immediate resistance sits at $4,650–$4,700; a sustained break above this zone could reopen $4,800. On the downside, $4,550 is the first intraday support, and a break below it could extend the correction toward $4,500.
Silver is trading near $69/oz, consolidating after its strong August recovery, with today’s direction also likely to be heavily influenced by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and the resulting moves in the dollar and Treasury yields. The broader fundamental backdrop remains supportive, with the silver market expected to record a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, while AI infrastructure, data centers, automotive and grid investment continue to underpin industrial consumption despite weaker solar demand. Technically, silver has reclaimed both its 50- and 200-day EMAs around $64–$65, strengthening the recovery structure. $70–$71 is the immediate resistance zone; a sustained break could expose $75, while $65 is the key support, below which the metal could retreat toward $62–$63.
